September 19, 2016

Alex Chamberlain provides early fantasy baseball deep sleepers for the 2017 MLB season at catcher, first base and second base. Dynasty stashes and waiver wire targets.

It's never too early to dream about next year. Whether you're looking for the perfect sneaky keeper or dynasty stash, or you're already eliminated from contention from your playoffs, there exists a smorgasbord of underowned players at every position ripe for the picking.

The premise is simple: identify players with very low ownership rates who have the potential to gain relevance in standard mixed formats. Low ownership rates serve as a proxy for general interest in players heading into next season; the lower the ownership rate, the lower that player will likely slip on draft day 2017.

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It's Never Too Early

This week will feature a catcher, first baseman and second baseman. Subsequent weeks will feature a shortstop, a third baseman, an outfielder, and starting pitchers. Each of the following players are owned in less than 10 percent of fantasy leagues according to FleaFlicker.

First Base

Tommy Joseph, PHI

2016 stats: 20 HR, 42 R, 41 RBI, 1 SB, .256/.304/.505 in 322 PA

Joseph is currently the 26th-most owned catcher in FleaFlicker leagues. Too bad Joseph has all but permanently moved out from behind the plate, where his skill set no longer plays up the way it could. Still, Joseph has hit for massive power, generating a 36.2% hard-hit rate (Hard%) along with sky-high fly ball and pull rates (46.9% FB, 42.0% Pull). All validate the 40-homer pace -- yes, 40-homer pace he has put together in his debut campaign.

With powerful upside comes inevitable downside. Joseph does't strike out too much, but he walks very infrequently. On the batted ball side of things, his lowly line drive rate (16.1% LD), propensity to pop up (14.3% IFFB), and generally lead-footed baserunning portend a below-average batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Indeed, Joseph has recorded just a .260 BABIP thus far, and it might not get better.

Plenty of power hitters get by with low BABIPs, though (think Jose Bautista, most prominently). Even if he doesn't make quite as good of contact and the HR/FB rate dips a few points, it seems like Joseph could fairly easily hit 25 to 30 home runs while running a league-average batting average of .250 or so. If the power is totally legit, that upside starts to venture into Chris Carter territory without the batting average volatility.

Unfortunately, Joseph plays for a terrible team, and he has been platooned with Ryan Howard out of pity for the latter. Philadelphia won't pick up Howard's option, though, leaving first base all to Joseph, where he should hit well enough to avoid another platoon (not that the Phillies have many viable in-house options).

If you're looking for next year's surprise power breakout à la Adam Duvall, even if it doesn't come with much else, Joseph could be your guy.

Catcher

Jett Bandy, LAA C

2016 stats: 8 HR, 20 R, 25 RBI, 1 SB, .238/.288/.399 in 215 PA

Bandy looks like a more extreme version of Joseph that still catches. Bandy's home run total paces out to almost 25 home runs over a full season, although it looks more like 17 home runs when allotted a more typical amount of playing time for shot-callers.

Bandy hits even more fly balls than Joseph -- in fact, it's the 4th-highest fly ball rate among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances. He doesn't hit the ball especially hard, but his propensity to, like Joseph, pull the ball frequently means balls will clear fences. And, like Joseph, he has his flaws: few walks, too many pop-ups. He'll probably run a pretty low BABIP.

Again, that's OK, especially for a catcher. Brian McCann and Yasmani Grandal are the poster boys for low-average, high-power catchers, and Bandy has an opportunity to join that crew next season. Unfortunately, he likely won't earn a full-time gig -- the last player to record at least 400 plate appearances as a catcher for the Angels was Mike Napoli in 2010 -- but the lion's share of a platoon behind the dish could still next him 15 home runs. You could do worse in two-catcher leagues.

The Angels' farm system is incredibly thin, so the fact that we're even having this conversation about a 31st-round pick is remarkable. Remember Bandy's name, for his fly ball tendencies alone make him an intriguing late-round play for deeper formats with a chance to flirt with mixed-league relevance.

Second Base

Ryan Schimpf, SDP

2016 stats: 19 HR, 43 R, 47 RBI, 1 SB, .224/.336/.557 in 292 PA

This isn't how I meant for this narrative to play out, but it did. Using the same leaderboard from before: among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, Schimpf has the highest fly ball rate, and it's not even close. At 64.5%, Schimpf is an absolute fly ball machine. And he hits the ball hard, too; between his hard-hit and pull rates, both of which exceed 40%, it's no wonder he is already threatening the 20-homer mark at just 288 plate appearances.

Schimpf is the most extreme version of Joseph. He is the most extreme version of anybody. He doesn't even have the opportunity to hit line drives because he hits so many fly balls. Like Joseph and Bandy before him, he pops up way too much. But his baserunning value grades out well, so there's a chance he can take back some of his lost BABIP through adept via swift feet. Unfortunately, he strikes out so much that a Mendoza Line batting average is almost inevitable.

Schimpf is the rookie incarnation of Chris Davis, Chris Carter, Khris Davis, et al. Granted, he's 28 years old, so it's hard to call him a rookie. But with his unsightly strikeout rate, league-average walk rate, massive power (thus far) and extreme fly ball tendencies, it's almost hard to imagine a 2017 scenario in which he doesn't join that group, other than one that sees him only playing part time as San Diego's second baseman.

If he stops hitting the ball hard and his HR/FB rate craters, Schimpf could still limp his way to 20 home runs. But his minor league track record suggests otherwise. His isolated power (ISO) has always impressed, sitting well above .200 from 2011 through 2013. It was in 2014 when he flipped the switch, though, as his ISO leaped up to .252 in 2014 to .258 in 2015 up to a massive .374 in 2016 prior to his debut. Power was always in the cards.

Unless Schimpf falls off the face of the earth, there's a legitimate chance he is next year's Brian Dozier, albeit without the solid plate discipline and stolen bases. It'll be more like if Chris Carter moved to second base -- his 110 wRC+ would be a top-15 mark. We've seen Carter not fulfill his power promise in prior years, though, so know the volatility inherent in a hitter like Schimpf. However, the upside could be massive.

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