X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Early Deep Sleepers / Dynasty Stashes for 2017 (Part One)

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Alex Chamberlain provides early fantasy baseball deep sleepers for the 2017 MLB season at catcher, first base and second base. Dynasty stashes and waiver wire targets.

It's never too early to dream about next year. Whether you're looking for the perfect sneaky keeper or dynasty stash, or you're already eliminated from contention from your playoffs, there exists a smorgasbord of underowned players at every position ripe for the picking.

The premise is simple: identify players with very low ownership rates who have the potential to gain relevance in standard mixed formats. Low ownership rates serve as a proxy for general interest in players heading into next season; the lower the ownership rate, the lower that player will likely slip on draft day 2017.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through the playoffs. Premium DFS research, lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

 

It's Never Too Early

This week will feature a catcher, first baseman and second baseman. Subsequent weeks will feature a shortstop, a third baseman, an outfielder, and starting pitchers. Each of the following players are owned in less than 10 percent of fantasy leagues according to FleaFlicker.

 

First Base

Tommy Joseph, PHI

2016 stats: 20 HR, 42 R, 41 RBI, 1 SB, .256/.304/.505 in 322 PA

Joseph is currently the 26th-most owned catcher in FleaFlicker leagues. Too bad Joseph has all but permanently moved out from behind the plate, where his skill set no longer plays up the way it could. Still, Joseph has hit for massive power, generating a 36.2% hard-hit rate (Hard%) along with sky-high fly ball and pull rates (46.9% FB, 42.0% Pull). All validate the 40-homer pace -- yes, 40-homer pace he has put together in his debut campaign.

With powerful upside comes inevitable downside. Joseph does't strike out too much, but he walks very infrequently. On the batted ball side of things, his lowly line drive rate (16.1% LD), propensity to pop up (14.3% IFFB), and generally lead-footed baserunning portend a below-average batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Indeed, Joseph has recorded just a .260 BABIP thus far, and it might not get better.

Plenty of power hitters get by with low BABIPs, though (think Jose Bautista, most prominently). Even if he doesn't make quite as good of contact and the HR/FB rate dips a few points, it seems like Joseph could fairly easily hit 25 to 30 home runs while running a league-average batting average of .250 or so. If the power is totally legit, that upside starts to venture into Chris Carter territory without the batting average volatility.

Unfortunately, Joseph plays for a terrible team, and he has been platooned with Ryan Howard out of pity for the latter. Philadelphia won't pick up Howard's option, though, leaving first base all to Joseph, where he should hit well enough to avoid another platoon (not that the Phillies have many viable in-house options).

If you're looking for next year's surprise power breakout à la Adam Duvall, even if it doesn't come with much else, Joseph could be your guy.

 

Catcher

Jett Bandy, LAA C

2016 stats: 8 HR, 20 R, 25 RBI, 1 SB, .238/.288/.399 in 215 PA

Bandy looks like a more extreme version of Joseph that still catches. Bandy's home run total paces out to almost 25 home runs over a full season, although it looks more like 17 home runs when allotted a more typical amount of playing time for shot-callers.

Bandy hits even more fly balls than Joseph -- in fact, it's the 4th-highest fly ball rate among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances. He doesn't hit the ball especially hard, but his propensity to, like Joseph, pull the ball frequently means balls will clear fences. And, like Joseph, he has his flaws: few walks, too many pop-ups. He'll probably run a pretty low BABIP.

Again, that's OK, especially for a catcher. Brian McCann and Yasmani Grandal are the poster boys for low-average, high-power catchers, and Bandy has an opportunity to join that crew next season. Unfortunately, he likely won't earn a full-time gig -- the last player to record at least 400 plate appearances as a catcher for the Angels was Mike Napoli in 2010 -- but the lion's share of a platoon behind the dish could still next him 15 home runs. You could do worse in two-catcher leagues.

The Angels' farm system is incredibly thin, so the fact that we're even having this conversation about a 31st-round pick is remarkable. Remember Bandy's name, for his fly ball tendencies alone make him an intriguing late-round play for deeper formats with a chance to flirt with mixed-league relevance.

 

Second Base

Ryan Schimpf, SDP

2016 stats: 19 HR, 43 R, 47 RBI, 1 SB, .224/.336/.557 in 292 PA

This isn't how I meant for this narrative to play out, but it did. Using the same leaderboard from before: among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, Schimpf has the highest fly ball rate, and it's not even close. At 64.5%, Schimpf is an absolute fly ball machine. And he hits the ball hard, too; between his hard-hit and pull rates, both of which exceed 40%, it's no wonder he is already threatening the 20-homer mark at just 288 plate appearances.

Schimpf is the most extreme version of Joseph. He is the most extreme version of anybody. He doesn't even have the opportunity to hit line drives because he hits so many fly balls. Like Joseph and Bandy before him, he pops up way too much. But his baserunning value grades out well, so there's a chance he can take back some of his lost BABIP through adept via swift feet. Unfortunately, he strikes out so much that a Mendoza Line batting average is almost inevitable.

Schimpf is the rookie incarnation of Chris Davis, Chris Carter, Khris Davis, et al. Granted, he's 28 years old, so it's hard to call him a rookie. But with his unsightly strikeout rate, league-average walk rate, massive power (thus far) and extreme fly ball tendencies, it's almost hard to imagine a 2017 scenario in which he doesn't join that group, other than one that sees him only playing part time as San Diego's second baseman.

If he stops hitting the ball hard and his HR/FB rate craters, Schimpf could still limp his way to 20 home runs. But his minor league track record suggests otherwise. His isolated power (ISO) has always impressed, sitting well above .200 from 2011 through 2013. It was in 2014 when he flipped the switch, though, as his ISO leaped up to .252 in 2014 to .258 in 2015 up to a massive .374 in 2016 prior to his debut. Power was always in the cards.

Unless Schimpf falls off the face of the earth, there's a legitimate chance he is next year's Brian Dozier, albeit without the solid plate discipline and stolen bases. It'll be more like if Chris Carter moved to second base -- his 110 wRC+ would be a top-15 mark. We've seen Carter not fulfill his power promise in prior years, though, so know the volatility inherent in a hitter like Schimpf. However, the upside could be massive.

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Joel Embiid

Cleared to Play Thursday vs. Mavericks
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Ruled Out for At Least Four Weeks
Bo Bichette

Yankees Showing Interest in Bo Bichette
D'Angelo Russell

Ruled Out Thursday With Illness
George Kittle

Listed as Questionable for Week 18
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Active Versus Nets
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Trending Towards Playing
Clint Capela

Steven Adams and Clint Capela Sidelined Thursday
Miles Wood

Blue Jackets Place Miles Wood on Injured Reserve
Dak Prescott

May Not Play Full Game in Week 18
Conor Garland

to Miss One Week
Egor Demin

Won't Suit Up Against Houston
Marco Rossi

to Miss at Least One Week
Ace Bailey

Still Out on Thursday Night
Tari Eason

Active on Thursday
Yegor Chinakhov

Set for Penguins Debut Thursday
Lauri Markkanen

Ruled Out on Thursday
Tanner McKee

Will Start for Eagles in Week 18
Shayne Gostisbehere

Misses Third Consecutive Game Thursday
Keyonte George

Unavailable on Thursday
Michael Porter Jr.

Out on Thursday
Auston Matthews

Returns From One-Game Absence
Josh Allen

Trending Towards Resting in Week 18
William Nylander

Remains Out Thursday
Lamar Jackson

Will Officially Return in Week 18
Tobias Harris

Won't Suit Up Against Miami
Lauri Markkanen

on the Injury Report for Thursday Night
Keyonte George

Battling an Illness, Might Miss Thursday's Game
Jusuf Nurkić

Jusuf Nurkic Won't Play on Thursday Evening
Houston Astros

Astros Sign Tatsuya Imai to Three-Year Deal
Jordan Love

Clears Concussion Protocol, Won't Start in Week 18
George Kittle

"Absolutely" Expects to Play in Week 18
Clayton Tune

to Start for Packers in Week 18
Chris Olave

Ruled Out for Week 18
Tom Wilson

Wraps Up 2025 With Gordie Howe Hat Trick
Valeri Nichushkin

Nets Second Career Hat Trick
Frank Vatrano

to Miss Six Weeks With Shoulder Injury
Conor Sheary

Noah Laba Exit With Injuries Wednesday
Brayden McNabb

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Wednesday
Miles Wood

Exits Early Wednesday
Gavin Brindley

Sustains Upper-Body Injury
Michael Porter Jr.

Battling Illness, Questionable Thursday
Joel Embiid

Likely to Play Thursday
Anthony Davis

Available Thursday
Coby White

to Miss at Least One Week
Josh Giddey

to Be Re-Evaluated in Two Weeks
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas in Walking Boot After Suffering Calf Injury
Davante Adams

Not Expected to Play in Week 18
Geno Smith

Won't Play in Week 18
Aaron Rodgers

Considering Playing Beyond 2025?
Sean Monahan

Sits Out Wednesday's Game
Zach Werenski

Misses Fourth Straight Game Wednesday
Dougie Hamilton

Questionable Wednesday
Radko Gudas

Expected to Remain Out Wednesday
Stefon Diggs

Expected to Play in Week 18
Ilya Lyubushkin

Back From One-Game Absence Wednesday
Alex Lyon

to Miss "Bit of Time"
Erik Cernak

Rejoins Lightning Lineup Wednesday
Christian McCaffrey

Trending to Play in Week 18
Jalen Hurts

Eagles Expected to Rest Jalen Hurts, Most Starters in Week 18
George Kittle

49ers Will be "Very Surprised" if George Kittle Doesn't Play on Saturday
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Ruled Out for Regular-Season Finale
CFB

Lane Kiffin Interested in Sam Leavitt, Brendan Sorsby at LSU
CFB

Deuce Knight Officially Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

Kewan Lacy Expected to Be Full-Go Against Georgia
Stefon Diggs

Facing Strangulation, Assault Charges
CFB

Chip Kelly Named Northwestern Offensive Coordinator
Riley Leonard

Will Start Against the Texans
Bijan Robinson

Explodes for 229 Total Yards, Two Touchdowns on Monday Night
CFB

Penn State Working to Hire D'Anton Lynn as Next Defensive Coordinator
CFB

Omar Cooper Expected to be Full-Go for Rose Bowl
CFB

Marcus Freeman Staying with Notre Dame for 2026 Season
CFB

Star Wideout Cam Coleman Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

Jay Hill Expected to be Next Michigan Defensive Coordinator

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP