👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

Breakout Players at 1B and 3B and What It Means For 2016

Welcome back to our weekly series running through November looking at players at each position who experienced breakout campaigns. I'll also run another segment detailing the busts at each position.

Previously we looked at breakouts and busts up the middle (2B, SS, C). Here we will be focusing on the hot corners. No, Paul Goldschmidt returning to his place as the No. 1 first basemen does not count as a breakout.

In addition to focusing on breakout players and what went right in 2015, I'll provide some context as to whether the production is sustainable or if we were witnessing a fluky season. Let's get started.

 

Breakout Players at 1B

Eric Hosmer (KC - 1B)

2015 Statistics: 667 PA, .297/.363/.459, 77 R, 19 HR, 81 RBI, 6 SB

Now this is what the Royals were looking for when they made Eric Hosmer the third overall pick in the 2008 draft. Hosmer set career-highs in runs, RBI's, on-base percentage, wRC+ (125), and wOBA (.355) for the 2015 World Series champs. He finished the year as the No. 7 fantasy first basemen, ahead of Jose Abreu, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, and Adrian Gonzalez. Each of those guys was drafted ahead of Hosmer.

It was the most complete season Hosmer has put forth to this point and the numbers lead me to believe he's here to stay. Hosmer showed significant improvement to his plate approach in 2015. He swung at 12% fewer pitches outside the strike zone which in turn helped increase his walk rate. By being more selective he was able to hone in on his pitches, as evidenced by his improved line drive rate.

The only statistic I have trouble believing will be replicated is the average. Hosmer was boosted by a spectacular July where he batted .385. Take that out and he hit .279. For reference, his career average is .280. It'd be nice for Hosmer to nab double-digit steals like he did from 2011-2013, but fantasy owners will let that slide if he reaches 90/90 again for R+RBI. Steamer has him projected for a .285/.348/.448 split with 77 R, 19 HR, 81 RBI, and 6 SB. The splits and the power sound about right, but write me down for Hosmer eclipsing the R+RBI marks.

 

Mitch Moreland (TEX - 1B, OF)

2015 Statistics: 515 PA, .278/.330/.482, 51 R, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 1 SB

Moreland getting back to the 20 HR mark he attained in 2013 wasn't the shocker of his campaign. It was the across the board improvement in his slash line. In 2013 (his last time eclipsing 500 PA) Moreland posted a .232/.299/.437. Far from fantasy-friendly.

Moreland set career-highs at RBI, wRC+ (115), and wOBA (.348). He didn't see drastic improvements in his plate discipline; his walk rate actually declined while he still struck out a ton (21.7% K rate). So what allowed Moreland to make such a jump?

Take a look at his 2014 heatmap.

 

Mitch Moreland Heatmap - 2014 (FanGraphs)

Mitch Moreland Heatmap - 2014 (FanGraphs)

And here's 2015.

Mitch Moreland Heatmap - 2015 (FanGraphs)

Mitch Moreland Heatmap - 2015 (FanGraphs)

Notice the improvement for pitches low and away. He hounded pitchers who threw it in his wheel house. He wasn't afraid to go the other way either, hitting .321 with six HR to the opposite field.

There's no doubting the power is real with Moreland. The issue going forward is the average. Moreland's 2015 stat line was heavily influenced by a ginormous June (.323, 9 HR, 25 RBI). Remove that month and he hit .266 with 14 HR and 60 RBI.

Steamer currently projects Moreland for a .253/.313/.432 slash with 63 R, 20 HR, and 70 RBI. Those are fair projections, but Moreland losing the OF tag will hurt his draft value come March. Among first baseman Moreland finished 21st in fantasy points. Unless you play in a deep league with CI slots, give Moreland a pass come draft day.

 

Breakout Players at 3B

Kris Bryant (CHC - 3B)

2015 Statistics: 650 PA, .275/.369/.488, 87 R, 26 HR, 99 RBI, 13 SB

I had the privilege of watching Kris Bryant during his time at the University of San Diego. He was a can't-miss prospect and every at-bat was must watch material, the reason you attended the game. But even I was taken by surprise by his debut.

It wasn't that I doubted Bryant's talents, it was how quickly he translated that skill set to big league pitching. Bryant took baseball by storm after arriving in the second week of the season, winning NL Rookie of the Year in an unanimous vote. He finished in the top 5 in runs (5th), RBI (3rd), stolen bases (2nd) and OBP (3rd), easily eclipsing his ADP coming into 2015.

If there's a downside to Bryant, it's he loves to swing. His 30.6% K rate was third worst among qualified hitters. It's not like he chases crappy pitches either; his 16.5% SwStr% was fourth worst among qualified hitters. Not the best sign, but at least he's shown he has the plate discipline to succeed (his 11.8% walk rate was second among 3B).

Had we known Bryant would basically play a full campaign he likely would've been a top 40 pick. Going into 2016 he's a shoe-in for the first two rounds, given the drop-off at third base after the top four (Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Kris Bryant). Consider Bryant a great bet for a 30/100 campaign with a slight dip in average. The real question becomes to you draft him or....

 

Manny Machado (BAL - 3B)

2015 Statistics: 713 PA, .286/.359/.502, 102 R, 35 HR, 86 RBI, 20 SB

Machado really doesn't belong on this list. He broke out in 2013 when he hit .283 with 88 R and 51 doubles while playing gold-glove winning defense. A 2014 knee injury limited him to 82 games and saw him drop to the 10-12 rankings among third baseman going into 2015.

Safe to say he won't be available in drafts that late this time around. He had an incredible season, finishing as the No. 3 third baseman while setting career-highs across the board and posting the only 35/20 campaign (shout out to Goldschmidt for his 33/21). If it wasn't for Donaldson and Arenado he'd be getting way more praise for his season.

Machado's excellent season really started kicking into gear after a crazy June (.365, 23 R, 8 HR, 22 RBI, 4 SB) and finished with a bang after hitting nine HR in September. There's not much to not like about Machado. The numbers versus LHP need some work (.258, 7 HR), but the AL East is quite barren of good lefties (assuming David Price leaves town).

He's an excellent power/speed combo in a fantasy-friendly ballpark. The one question is how much he'll miss Chris Davis' presence in the lineup. My guess is not much since Adam Jones resides after Machado, although the run total may take a hit. Draft Machado with confidence in the first 20 picks.

 

Justin Turner (LAD - 2B, 3B)

2015 Statistics: 438 PA, .294/.370/.491, 55 R, 16 HR, 60 RBI, 5 SB

Everyone loves a late bloomer. Turner, 30, had only eclipsed 400 PA once in his career (2011) and only got a shot in 2014 after injuries to Hanley Ramirez and Juan Uribe depleted the Dodgers depth. He responded by hitting .340 in 322 AB. Considering his .404 BABIP, many folks called for regression. Real shocker there.

Even more shocking is they were wrong. One year after posting 21.4 runs above average, Turner posted 20.9. In just 117 more PA, he hit nine more homers and drove in 17 more runners. Sure the average plummeted, but I think most everyone would take a .294 average. He was especially helpful in OBP-leagues, finishing third among 3B (if he qualified). A troublesome knee hampered his August (.161) and he never fully recovered. He had microscopic surgery on the left knee and should be ready for Spring Training.

One of the biggest strengths to owning Turner in 2015 was his versatility. He qualified at 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B in Yahoo! leagues, but going into 2016 he's losing the 2B and SS tags after not reaching the minimum. That severely hinders Turner's draft value. Look for similar numbers with a slightly depressed on-base percentage, which leaves him just outside the top-10 for third basemen for 2016.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Posts 25 in Series Opener
Paul George

Delivers 17 Points Against Boston
Tyrese Maxey

Leads 76ers in Game 1 Defeat
Jaylen Brown

Scores 26 Points in Game 1 Victory
Jayson Tatum

Posts Double-Double in Game 1 Win
Peyton Watson

Still Sidelined for Game 2
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Dynasty Value at All-Time Low
NFL

David Bailey Visits Several Teams Leading Up to the NFL Draft
Anthony Edwards

Listed as Questionable for Game 2
NFL

Oscar Delp Takes Several Visits Ahead of Draft
NFL

Chiefs Talking with Cardinals About the No. 3 Pick
Carson Beck

Steelers Eyeing Carson Beck in the Draft?
Thomas Bryant

to Remain Out Monday
Juan Soto

is on Track to Return Next Homestand
Cade Cunningham

Playing Without Minutes Restriction Sunday
Corbin Carroll

Exits Sunday's Game with Back Tightness
OG Anunoby

Tagged as Probable for Monday
Onyeka Okongwu

Might Miss Game 2 Against Knicks
Immanuel Quickley

Questionable for Game 2
Jordan Goodwin

Ruled Out for Rest of Game 1
Jonathan Isaac

Ruled Out for Sunday
Desmond Bane

Available for Game 1
Artem Zub

Uncertain for Game 2
Karel Vejmelka

Makes Playoff Debut Sunday
Carter Hart

in Vegas Crease for Playoff Opener
Jeremy Swayman

Begins Fifth Postseason Campaign
Alex Lyon

Available for Game 1
Dominic James

Activated From Injured Reserve
NFL

Zachariah Branch Arrested for Misdemeanor Obstruction
New York Giants

Sonny Styles One of the Top Targets for Giants at No. 5 in NFL Draft
Renardo Green

49ers Looking to Trade Renardo Green?
Keenan Allen

Chargers Not Closing the Door on a Reunion With Keenan Allen
Grayson Allen

is Available for Game 1 on Sunday
A.J. Brown

Eagles Preparing for A.J. Brown's Departure?
Peter Skoronski

Titans to Pick Up Peter Skoronski's Fifth-Year Option
Breece Hall

Dynasty Upside Remains Limited by Offensive Environment in New York
Cincinnati Bengals

Dexter Lawrence Signing One-Year Extension With Bengals
Kristaps Porzingis

Unsure About Returning to Golden State
Drake London

Dynasty Upside Remains Limited by Quarterback Questions in Atlanta
Mark Williams

is Ruled Out for Game 1 on Sunday
Chris Olave

Dynasty Value Rising After Resurgent 2025 Season
Coby White

Hornets Want to Bring Back Coby White
Bucky Irving

Can Bucky Irving Bounce Back After Injury-Marred 2025?
Kenneth Walker III

a Major Dynasty Riser After Offseason Move to Kansas City
Desmond Bane

Considered Probable for Game 1
Bo Nix

Dynasty Value in Question Coming Off Injury?
Tarik Skubal

Fans 10 in Win Over Red Sox on Saturday
Raisel Iglesias

Dealing With Shoulder Issue
Davante Adams

Glaring Opportunity to Sell High on Davante Adams?
Jordan Addison

Can Jordan Addison Overcome Ugly Quarterback Situation?
Emeka Egbuka

a Trade Target in Some Dynasty Leagues
Kyle Larson

Should not be Underestimated for the Win at Kansas
Denny Hamlin

Can Denny Hamlin Dominate at Kansas Again?
NASCAR

Christoper Bell Should Contend for First Win at Kansas
Joel Eriksson Ek

Powers Minnesota Past Dallas in Opening Game
Tyler Reddick

Fastest in Practice and Qualifying for Kansas Race
Ryan Blaney

Could Score another Top-10 Finish at Kansas
Ty Gibbs

Poised to Continue Hot Streak at Kansas
Logan Stankoven

Makes Big Impact in Carolina's Game 1 Victory
Chris Buescher

Always Consistent, Has Speed Heading Into Kansas
William Byron

is A Solid DFS Option for Kansas Lineups
Carson Hocevar

Poised for Career-Best Run at Kansas
Porter Martone

Nets Game-Winning Goal to Defeat Pittsburgh
Frederik Andersen

Shuts Out Ottawa in Game 1
Chase Briscoe

Is Chase Briscoe Worth Rostering for DFS at Kansas?
Chase Elliott

Is A Favorable DFS Option for Kansas Lineups
Matt Boldy

Delivers Huge Game 1 Performance in Win
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano be Considered Playable In DFS This Week at Kansas?
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace is A Favorable Driver to Consider for Kansas Lineups
Ross Chastain

Is Ross Chastain A Worthy DFS Option for Kansas?
Brad Keselowski

Could Brad Keselowski be A Sneaky DFS Option for Kansas?
Daniel Suarez

Should DFS Managers Roster Daniel Suarez at Kansas?
Dylan Harper

is Ready for Sunday's Game
Stuart Skinner

Starting Game 1 Against Flyers
Alexandre Carrier

Back at Practice
Jared McCann

Undergoes Lower-Body Procedure
Andrei Kuzmenko

Activated From Injured Reserve
Victor Hedman

Out for Game 1 on Sunday
William Karlsson

Unavailable for Start of First-Round Series
Quinn Hughes

Available Saturday
Miro Heiskanen

Cleared for Game 1
Jhoan Duran

Placed on 15-Day Injured List With Oblique Strain
Kyle Stowers

Will be Activated on Sunday
Jesper Wallstedt

to Start in Goal for Minnesota on Saturday
Logan Stankoven

Presumed Ready for Game 1
Max Muncy

has Another Multi-Homer Game at Coors Field
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Expected to Make Season Debut on Saturday
Austin Riley

Hits Two Home Runs in Shutout Win Over Phillies
Daulton Varsho

Removed Early on Friday With Knee Discomfort
Edwin Uceta

Having More Shoulder Issues, "Shut Down for a Few Days"
Josh Hader

Moved to 60-Day Injured List
Willson Contreras

Returns to Red Sox Lineup on Friday
Daniel Palencia

Goes on 15-Day Injured List With Oblique Strain
Juan Soto

Still on Track to Return Next Week
Los Angeles Angels

Garret Anderson Dies at 53 Years Old
Mike Malott

A Favorite At UFC Winnipeg
Gilbert Burns

Set For UFC Winnipeg Main Event
Kyler Phillips

Set UFC Winnipeg Co-Main Event
Charles Jourdain

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Jai Herbert

An Underdog At UFC Winnipeg
Mandel Nallo

Set For His UFC Debut
Karine Silva

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Looks To Bounce Back
Parker Messick

Flirts With No-Hitter in Latest Gem Against Orioles
Mike Trout

Hits Five Homers in Series Versus Yankees
Spencer Arrighetti

Fans 10 in Season Debut, to Remain a Focal Point in Rotation?
Nick Pivetta

Dealing With Flexor Strain, Could Miss Months
Nico Hoerner

Homers, Drive in Five in Win Over Phillies
CFB

Michigan Lands Commitment From Quarterback Kamden Lopati
Sahith Theegala

Brings Strong Form Into Harbour Town
Wyndham Clark

Needs Putter to Show Up at RBC Heritage
Jacob Bridgeman

Looks to Return to Elite Form at Harbour Town
J.J. Spaun

a Volatile Option at RBC Heritage
PGA

Sungjae Im Offers High-Upside Value at RBC Heritage
Matt Fitzpatrick

Set for Another Strong Showing at RBC Heritage
Jason Day

Eyes Bounce-Back After Sunday Struggles at the Masters
Akshay Bhatia

Looking to Rebound at Harbour Town
Cameron Young

Hoping to Secure Second Win of Season at RBC Heritage
Scottie Scheffler

Looks to Win Again at RBC Heritage
Shane Lowry

Has Disappointing Final Round at Masters
Viktor Hovland

Hoping to Build on Final Round at Masters
Brian Harman

Struggling For Consistency Heading to RBC Heritage
Chris Gotterup

Putting Together Outstanding 2026 Season
Justin Thomas

Looks to Defend in Hilton Head
Jordan Spieth

in Search of Improved Putting at RBC Heritage
Marco Penge

May Continue Up-and-Down Ride at the RBC Heritage
Xander Schauffele

Could Get The Job Done at RBC Heritage
Jake Knapp

Keeps Building Strong Results in 2026
Kurt Kitayama

Trying to Regain Form From Florida
Collin Morikawa

Continues to be a Scary DFS Play at RBC Heritage
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF