👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 50% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

Breakout Players at 1B and 3B and What It Means For 2016

Welcome back to our weekly series running through November looking at players at each position who experienced breakout campaigns. I'll also run another segment detailing the busts at each position.

Previously we looked at breakouts and busts up the middle (2B, SS, C). Here we will be focusing on the hot corners. No, Paul Goldschmidt returning to his place as the No. 1 first basemen does not count as a breakout.

In addition to focusing on breakout players and what went right in 2015, I'll provide some context as to whether the production is sustainable or if we were witnessing a fluky season. Let's get started.

 

Breakout Players at 1B

Eric Hosmer (KC - 1B)

2015 Statistics: 667 PA, .297/.363/.459, 77 R, 19 HR, 81 RBI, 6 SB

Now this is what the Royals were looking for when they made Eric Hosmer the third overall pick in the 2008 draft. Hosmer set career-highs in runs, RBI's, on-base percentage, wRC+ (125), and wOBA (.355) for the 2015 World Series champs. He finished the year as the No. 7 fantasy first basemen, ahead of Jose Abreu, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, and Adrian Gonzalez. Each of those guys was drafted ahead of Hosmer.

It was the most complete season Hosmer has put forth to this point and the numbers lead me to believe he's here to stay. Hosmer showed significant improvement to his plate approach in 2015. He swung at 12% fewer pitches outside the strike zone which in turn helped increase his walk rate. By being more selective he was able to hone in on his pitches, as evidenced by his improved line drive rate.

The only statistic I have trouble believing will be replicated is the average. Hosmer was boosted by a spectacular July where he batted .385. Take that out and he hit .279. For reference, his career average is .280. It'd be nice for Hosmer to nab double-digit steals like he did from 2011-2013, but fantasy owners will let that slide if he reaches 90/90 again for R+RBI. Steamer has him projected for a .285/.348/.448 split with 77 R, 19 HR, 81 RBI, and 6 SB. The splits and the power sound about right, but write me down for Hosmer eclipsing the R+RBI marks.

 

Mitch Moreland (TEX - 1B, OF)

2015 Statistics: 515 PA, .278/.330/.482, 51 R, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 1 SB

Moreland getting back to the 20 HR mark he attained in 2013 wasn't the shocker of his campaign. It was the across the board improvement in his slash line. In 2013 (his last time eclipsing 500 PA) Moreland posted a .232/.299/.437. Far from fantasy-friendly.

Moreland set career-highs at RBI, wRC+ (115), and wOBA (.348). He didn't see drastic improvements in his plate discipline; his walk rate actually declined while he still struck out a ton (21.7% K rate). So what allowed Moreland to make such a jump?

Take a look at his 2014 heatmap.

 

Mitch Moreland Heatmap - 2014 (FanGraphs)

Mitch Moreland Heatmap - 2014 (FanGraphs)

And here's 2015.

Mitch Moreland Heatmap - 2015 (FanGraphs)

Mitch Moreland Heatmap - 2015 (FanGraphs)

Notice the improvement for pitches low and away. He hounded pitchers who threw it in his wheel house. He wasn't afraid to go the other way either, hitting .321 with six HR to the opposite field.

There's no doubting the power is real with Moreland. The issue going forward is the average. Moreland's 2015 stat line was heavily influenced by a ginormous June (.323, 9 HR, 25 RBI). Remove that month and he hit .266 with 14 HR and 60 RBI.

Steamer currently projects Moreland for a .253/.313/.432 slash with 63 R, 20 HR, and 70 RBI. Those are fair projections, but Moreland losing the OF tag will hurt his draft value come March. Among first baseman Moreland finished 21st in fantasy points. Unless you play in a deep league with CI slots, give Moreland a pass come draft day.

 

Breakout Players at 3B

Kris Bryant (CHC - 3B)

2015 Statistics: 650 PA, .275/.369/.488, 87 R, 26 HR, 99 RBI, 13 SB

I had the privilege of watching Kris Bryant during his time at the University of San Diego. He was a can't-miss prospect and every at-bat was must watch material, the reason you attended the game. But even I was taken by surprise by his debut.

It wasn't that I doubted Bryant's talents, it was how quickly he translated that skill set to big league pitching. Bryant took baseball by storm after arriving in the second week of the season, winning NL Rookie of the Year in an unanimous vote. He finished in the top 5 in runs (5th), RBI (3rd), stolen bases (2nd) and OBP (3rd), easily eclipsing his ADP coming into 2015.

If there's a downside to Bryant, it's he loves to swing. His 30.6% K rate was third worst among qualified hitters. It's not like he chases crappy pitches either; his 16.5% SwStr% was fourth worst among qualified hitters. Not the best sign, but at least he's shown he has the plate discipline to succeed (his 11.8% walk rate was second among 3B).

Had we known Bryant would basically play a full campaign he likely would've been a top 40 pick. Going into 2016 he's a shoe-in for the first two rounds, given the drop-off at third base after the top four (Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Kris Bryant). Consider Bryant a great bet for a 30/100 campaign with a slight dip in average. The real question becomes to you draft him or....

 

Manny Machado (BAL - 3B)

2015 Statistics: 713 PA, .286/.359/.502, 102 R, 35 HR, 86 RBI, 20 SB

Machado really doesn't belong on this list. He broke out in 2013 when he hit .283 with 88 R and 51 doubles while playing gold-glove winning defense. A 2014 knee injury limited him to 82 games and saw him drop to the 10-12 rankings among third baseman going into 2015.

Safe to say he won't be available in drafts that late this time around. He had an incredible season, finishing as the No. 3 third baseman while setting career-highs across the board and posting the only 35/20 campaign (shout out to Goldschmidt for his 33/21). If it wasn't for Donaldson and Arenado he'd be getting way more praise for his season.

Machado's excellent season really started kicking into gear after a crazy June (.365, 23 R, 8 HR, 22 RBI, 4 SB) and finished with a bang after hitting nine HR in September. There's not much to not like about Machado. The numbers versus LHP need some work (.258, 7 HR), but the AL East is quite barren of good lefties (assuming David Price leaves town).

He's an excellent power/speed combo in a fantasy-friendly ballpark. The one question is how much he'll miss Chris Davis' presence in the lineup. My guess is not much since Adam Jones resides after Machado, although the run total may take a hit. Draft Machado with confidence in the first 20 picks.

 

Justin Turner (LAD - 2B, 3B)

2015 Statistics: 438 PA, .294/.370/.491, 55 R, 16 HR, 60 RBI, 5 SB

Everyone loves a late bloomer. Turner, 30, had only eclipsed 400 PA once in his career (2011) and only got a shot in 2014 after injuries to Hanley Ramirez and Juan Uribe depleted the Dodgers depth. He responded by hitting .340 in 322 AB. Considering his .404 BABIP, many folks called for regression. Real shocker there.

Even more shocking is they were wrong. One year after posting 21.4 runs above average, Turner posted 20.9. In just 117 more PA, he hit nine more homers and drove in 17 more runners. Sure the average plummeted, but I think most everyone would take a .294 average. He was especially helpful in OBP-leagues, finishing third among 3B (if he qualified). A troublesome knee hampered his August (.161) and he never fully recovered. He had microscopic surgery on the left knee and should be ready for Spring Training.

One of the biggest strengths to owning Turner in 2015 was his versatility. He qualified at 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B in Yahoo! leagues, but going into 2016 he's losing the 2B and SS tags after not reaching the minimum. That severely hinders Turner's draft value. Look for similar numbers with a slightly depressed on-base percentage, which leaves him just outside the top-10 for third basemen for 2016.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 50% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Ty Gibbs

Is A DFS Risk for Talladega Lineups
Arturs Silovs

Steps in and Saves Pittsburgh on Saturday
Sidney Crosby

Helps Lead Pittsburgh to Road Win Over Philadelphia
Brock Faber

Huge Factor in Minnesota Overtime Victory
Matt Boldy

Evens Series Between Minnesota and Dallas in Big Way
Frederik Andersen

Game Changer as Carolina Closed Out Ottawa
Logan Stankoven

Scores Yet Again as Carolina Sweeps Ottawa
Desmond Bane

Nails Seven Triples En Route to 25 Points
Cade Cunningham

Finishes Loss With Nine Turnovers
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Drops 42 Points on Suns in Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Joins Exclusive List With Triple-Double
Julius Randle

Tossed From Game 4
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Ejected in Game 4 Loss
Donte DiVincenzo

Diagnosed With Torn Right Achilles
Anthony Edwards

Injures Left Knee Saturday
Malik Willis

Gets Three New Receivers in the Draft
Antonio Williams

to See Starting Role on Day 1 in Weak Wide Receiver Room?
Terrance Ferguson

No Longer the Unquestioned Future TE1 in Los Angeles?
Brenton Strange

Does Brenton Strange Still Need to Prove Himself in Jacksonville?
KC Concepcion

Already Facing Competition for Targets in Cleveland
Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Remains the Top Option in Washington Backfield?
MLB

Red Sox Fire Manager Alex Cora and Other Coaches
A.J. Lawson

Questionable for Sunday Due to Back Spasms
Kevin Huerter

Injures Left Hip Saturday
Green Bay Packers

Packers Take Kicker Trey Smack with Pick No. 216
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Iffy for Sunday
Victor Wembanyama

Still Questionable on Injury Report
Denver Broncos

Broncos Select Dallen Bentley with 256th Pick
Kevin Durant

Uncertain for Sunday's Action
Austin Reaves

Listed as Questionable for Sunday's Game 4
Aaron Gordon

Active on Saturday
Indianapolis Colts

Colts Select Deion Burks with Pick No. 254
Joel Embiid

Remains Doubtful Ahead of Game 4
New England Patriots

Patriots Select Jam Miller with 245th Pick
Indianapolis Colts

Colts Select Seth McGowan with Pick No. 237
New England Patriots

Patriots Take Quarterback Behren Morton with Pick No. 234
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Draft Garrett Nussmeier With 249th Overall Pick
Cleveland Browns

Browns Draft Carsen Ryan in the Seventh Round
Tennessee Titans

Titans Select Jaren Kanak with Pick No. 225
Washington Commanders

Commanders Take Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis with Pick No. 223
Houston Texans

Texans Select Lewis Bond with Pick No. 204
Pittsburgh Steelers

Navy's Eli Heidenreich to the Steelers at No. 230 Overall
Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars Double Dip at Wide Receiver with C.J. Williams at Pick No. 203
Josh Manson

Not Expected to Play Sunday
Los Angeles Rams

Rams Select CJ Daniels with 197th Pick
Mason Lohrei

Set to Miss Game 4 as Healthy Scratch
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Select Jack Endries at No. 221 Overall
Emil Andrae

Won't Play Saturday
Arturs Silovs

Starting Game 4 Against Flyers
Dan Vladar

Cleared for Game 4
Mats Zuccarello

Remains Out Saturday
Nikolaj Ehlers

Dealing With Lower-Body Injury
Steven Kwan

Scratched With Neck Stiffness
Trey Yesavage

Returning From Injured List on Tuesday
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Heading to the Injured List With Oblique Strain
Kirby Dach

Battles and Scores Two Points in Friday Triumph
Connor McDavid

Delivers Mixed-Bag Performance Friday
MLB

Saturday's Mets-Rockies Game Postponed Due to Weather
Karel Vejmelka

Saves Utah With Huge Effort Friday
Lane Hutson

Scores Crucial Overtime Goal in Montreal Win
Lawson Crouse

Cashes in With Two Goals for Utah
Mikael Granlund

Serves Up Trio of Assists in Anaheim Big Win
Giancarlo Stanton

Exits With Leg Tightness on Friday
Isaiah Joe

Likely to Miss Game 3 Against Suns
Peyton Watson

to Remain Sidelined Saturday
Aaron Gordon

Questionable for Saturday's Game 4
Jordan Goodwin

on Track to Return Saturday
Grayson Allen

Listed as Questionable for Saturday
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Scratched on Friday With Mid-Back Pain
Troy Terry

Available for Game 3 Against Oilers
Radko Gudas

Misses Second Straight Game Friday
Jackson Holliday

Receives Positive Test Results, Will be Shut Down for a Week
Jeff Hoffman

Out as Blue Jays Closer
Youssef Zalal

Set For UFC Vegas 116 Main Event
Aljamain Sterling

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 116
Joselyne Edwards

Set For UFC Vegas 116 Co-Main Event
Norma Dumont

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Alexander Hernandez

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 116
Rafa Garcia

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Adrian Luna Martinetti

Set For His UFC Debut
Davey Grant

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Francisco Lindor

Expected to Miss "Significant Time"
Francisco Lindor

Mets Officially Place Francisco Lindor on Injured List With Calf Strain
Michael Harris II

Removed Early With Quad Tightness
Francisco Lindor

Likely Headed to the Injured List
Michael Harris II

Continues to Heat Up With Two-Homer Game on Wednesday
Francisco Lindor

Leaves Wednesday's Game Early With Calf Tightness
JR Ritchie

Earns Promotion, Will Make MLB Debut on Thursday
Wyatt Langford

Expected to Go on Injured List With Flexor Strain
Maikel Garcia

Leaves Early on Wednesday With Elbow Soreness
Roman Anthony

Day-to-Day With Sore Back
Juan Soto

Officially Back in Mets Lineup on Wednesday
J.T. Realmuto

Phillies Place J.T. Realmuto on Injured List With Back Injury
CFB

Beau Pribula Leading Virginia Quarterback Competition
Marco Penge

Trending Down Entering Zurich Classic
Sahith Theegala

Eyes Another Strong Week at Zurich Classic
Brooks Koepka

Shane Lowry Teams Up with Brooks Koepka at Zurich Classic
Si Woo Kim

Adds Another Strong Finish at RBC Heritage
Luke Clanton

Hoping to Find Form in New Orleans
Scottie Scheffler

is Starting to Hit His Stride
Brooks Koepka

Looking for Progress in PGA Return With Partner at Zurich Classic
Matt Fitzpatrick

Looks to Share Recent Form at Zurich Classic
CFB

Ashton Daniels Named Florida State's Starting Quarterback
Tyler Reddick

Earns His Fifth Win of the 2026 Season at Kansas
Kyle Larson

Finishes as the Runner-Up at Kansas
Chase Briscoe

Rallies for A New Career-Best Finish at Kansas
Denny Hamlin

Leads the Most Laps at Kansas but Misses Out on Victory
Christopher Bell

Falls Out of Contention for Kansas Victory on Final Restart
Mike Malott

Scores Third-Round TKO Win
Gilbert Burns

Retires After UFC Winnipeg Loss
Charles Jourdain

Extends Winning Streak
Kyler Phillips

Drops Decision At UFC Winnipeg
Mandel Nallo

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss In His UFC Debut
Jai Herbert

Scores First-Round TKO Win
Karine Silva

Gets Dominated at UFC Winnipeg
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Dominates Karine Silva
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF