👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


Breakout Players at 1B and 3B and What It Means For 2016

Welcome back to our weekly series running through November looking at players at each position who experienced breakout campaigns. I'll also run another segment detailing the busts at each position.

Previously we looked at breakouts and busts up the middle (2B, SS, C). Here we will be focusing on the hot corners. No, Paul Goldschmidt returning to his place as the No. 1 first basemen does not count as a breakout.

In addition to focusing on breakout players and what went right in 2015, I'll provide some context as to whether the production is sustainable or if we were witnessing a fluky season. Let's get started.

 

Breakout Players at 1B

Eric Hosmer (KC - 1B)

2015 Statistics: 667 PA, .297/.363/.459, 77 R, 19 HR, 81 RBI, 6 SB

Now this is what the Royals were looking for when they made Eric Hosmer the third overall pick in the 2008 draft. Hosmer set career-highs in runs, RBI's, on-base percentage, wRC+ (125), and wOBA (.355) for the 2015 World Series champs. He finished the year as the No. 7 fantasy first basemen, ahead of Jose Abreu, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, and Adrian Gonzalez. Each of those guys was drafted ahead of Hosmer.

It was the most complete season Hosmer has put forth to this point and the numbers lead me to believe he's here to stay. Hosmer showed significant improvement to his plate approach in 2015. He swung at 12% fewer pitches outside the strike zone which in turn helped increase his walk rate. By being more selective he was able to hone in on his pitches, as evidenced by his improved line drive rate.

The only statistic I have trouble believing will be replicated is the average. Hosmer was boosted by a spectacular July where he batted .385. Take that out and he hit .279. For reference, his career average is .280. It'd be nice for Hosmer to nab double-digit steals like he did from 2011-2013, but fantasy owners will let that slide if he reaches 90/90 again for R+RBI. Steamer has him projected for a .285/.348/.448 split with 77 R, 19 HR, 81 RBI, and 6 SB. The splits and the power sound about right, but write me down for Hosmer eclipsing the R+RBI marks.

 

Mitch Moreland (TEX - 1B, OF)

2015 Statistics: 515 PA, .278/.330/.482, 51 R, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 1 SB

Moreland getting back to the 20 HR mark he attained in 2013 wasn't the shocker of his campaign. It was the across the board improvement in his slash line. In 2013 (his last time eclipsing 500 PA) Moreland posted a .232/.299/.437. Far from fantasy-friendly.

Moreland set career-highs at RBI, wRC+ (115), and wOBA (.348). He didn't see drastic improvements in his plate discipline; his walk rate actually declined while he still struck out a ton (21.7% K rate). So what allowed Moreland to make such a jump?

Take a look at his 2014 heatmap.

 

Mitch Moreland Heatmap - 2014 (FanGraphs)

Mitch Moreland Heatmap - 2014 (FanGraphs)

And here's 2015.

Mitch Moreland Heatmap - 2015 (FanGraphs)

Mitch Moreland Heatmap - 2015 (FanGraphs)

Notice the improvement for pitches low and away. He hounded pitchers who threw it in his wheel house. He wasn't afraid to go the other way either, hitting .321 with six HR to the opposite field.

There's no doubting the power is real with Moreland. The issue going forward is the average. Moreland's 2015 stat line was heavily influenced by a ginormous June (.323, 9 HR, 25 RBI). Remove that month and he hit .266 with 14 HR and 60 RBI.

Steamer currently projects Moreland for a .253/.313/.432 slash with 63 R, 20 HR, and 70 RBI. Those are fair projections, but Moreland losing the OF tag will hurt his draft value come March. Among first baseman Moreland finished 21st in fantasy points. Unless you play in a deep league with CI slots, give Moreland a pass come draft day.

 

Breakout Players at 3B

Kris Bryant (CHC - 3B)

2015 Statistics: 650 PA, .275/.369/.488, 87 R, 26 HR, 99 RBI, 13 SB

I had the privilege of watching Kris Bryant during his time at the University of San Diego. He was a can't-miss prospect and every at-bat was must watch material, the reason you attended the game. But even I was taken by surprise by his debut.

It wasn't that I doubted Bryant's talents, it was how quickly he translated that skill set to big league pitching. Bryant took baseball by storm after arriving in the second week of the season, winning NL Rookie of the Year in an unanimous vote. He finished in the top 5 in runs (5th), RBI (3rd), stolen bases (2nd) and OBP (3rd), easily eclipsing his ADP coming into 2015.

If there's a downside to Bryant, it's he loves to swing. His 30.6% K rate was third worst among qualified hitters. It's not like he chases crappy pitches either; his 16.5% SwStr% was fourth worst among qualified hitters. Not the best sign, but at least he's shown he has the plate discipline to succeed (his 11.8% walk rate was second among 3B).

Had we known Bryant would basically play a full campaign he likely would've been a top 40 pick. Going into 2016 he's a shoe-in for the first two rounds, given the drop-off at third base after the top four (Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Kris Bryant). Consider Bryant a great bet for a 30/100 campaign with a slight dip in average. The real question becomes to you draft him or....

 

Manny Machado (BAL - 3B)

2015 Statistics: 713 PA, .286/.359/.502, 102 R, 35 HR, 86 RBI, 20 SB

Machado really doesn't belong on this list. He broke out in 2013 when he hit .283 with 88 R and 51 doubles while playing gold-glove winning defense. A 2014 knee injury limited him to 82 games and saw him drop to the 10-12 rankings among third baseman going into 2015.

Safe to say he won't be available in drafts that late this time around. He had an incredible season, finishing as the No. 3 third baseman while setting career-highs across the board and posting the only 35/20 campaign (shout out to Goldschmidt for his 33/21). If it wasn't for Donaldson and Arenado he'd be getting way more praise for his season.

Machado's excellent season really started kicking into gear after a crazy June (.365, 23 R, 8 HR, 22 RBI, 4 SB) and finished with a bang after hitting nine HR in September. There's not much to not like about Machado. The numbers versus LHP need some work (.258, 7 HR), but the AL East is quite barren of good lefties (assuming David Price leaves town).

He's an excellent power/speed combo in a fantasy-friendly ballpark. The one question is how much he'll miss Chris Davis' presence in the lineup. My guess is not much since Adam Jones resides after Machado, although the run total may take a hit. Draft Machado with confidence in the first 20 picks.

 

Justin Turner (LAD - 2B, 3B)

2015 Statistics: 438 PA, .294/.370/.491, 55 R, 16 HR, 60 RBI, 5 SB

Everyone loves a late bloomer. Turner, 30, had only eclipsed 400 PA once in his career (2011) and only got a shot in 2014 after injuries to Hanley Ramirez and Juan Uribe depleted the Dodgers depth. He responded by hitting .340 in 322 AB. Considering his .404 BABIP, many folks called for regression. Real shocker there.

Even more shocking is they were wrong. One year after posting 21.4 runs above average, Turner posted 20.9. In just 117 more PA, he hit nine more homers and drove in 17 more runners. Sure the average plummeted, but I think most everyone would take a .294 average. He was especially helpful in OBP-leagues, finishing third among 3B (if he qualified). A troublesome knee hampered his August (.161) and he never fully recovered. He had microscopic surgery on the left knee and should be ready for Spring Training.

One of the biggest strengths to owning Turner in 2015 was his versatility. He qualified at 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B in Yahoo! leagues, but going into 2016 he's losing the 2B and SS tags after not reaching the minimum. That severely hinders Turner's draft value. Look for similar numbers with a slightly depressed on-base percentage, which leaves him just outside the top-10 for third basemen for 2016.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NHL

Mitch Marner Delivers Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Mark Stone

Returns With Multi-Point Effort
Valeri Nichushkin

Exits Early Sunday
Nathan MacKinnon

Hurt in Game 3 Loss
Isaiah Hartenstein

Provides Steady Production in Defeat
Chet Holmgren

Has a Quiet Offensive Night on Sunday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Held Under 20 Points in Game 4
Stephon Castle

Hands Out Six Assists in Game 4 Win
Devin Vassell

Tallies 13 Points in Game 4 Win
De'Aaron Fox

Records Double-Double as Spurs Even Series
Victor Wembanyama

Sets Tone Early as Spurs Force a Pivotal Game 5
Isaac Guerendo

Could be a Drop Candidate in Dynasty Leagues in 2026
Jayden Higgins

' Dynasty Arrow is Pointing Up With Clear Path to WR2 Role in Houston
Jakobi Meyers

a Sell-High Candidate in Dynasty Formats?
Drake Maye

to Make a Big Leap in 2026 in Second Season With Josh McDaniels?
Jamal Murray

Earns First Career All-NBA Selection
Kevin Durant

Becomes First Player to Make All-NBA Team With Five Franchises
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Victor Wembanyama Lead All-NBA First Team
Taylor Hall

Enjoying Life in Carolina
Mark Stone

Returns to Action Sunday
Cale Makar

Rejoins Avalanche Lineup Sunday
Cason Wallace

Joins Starting Unit Sunday
De'Aaron Fox

Doesn't "Feel Great" Entering Game 4
Jalen Williams

Won't Play Sunday
Christian Watson

Is Christian Watson on the Verge of a Legitimate Breakout?
Khalil Shakir

Dynasty Value in Decline
Travis Hunter

Still a Risky Buy, Even at his Sunken Dynasty Cost
Gunnar Helm

a Dynasty Sleeper with Room to Grow
Drake Maye

Is Drake Maye Becoming the Most Valuable Player in Superflex Dynasty Leagues?
Dylan Cease

Removed From Sunday's Start With Hamstring Discomfort
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Exits Sunday's Game Early with Elbow Contusion
MLB

Reds-Cardinals Game Postponed on Sunday
Edward Cabrera

Cubs Place Edward Cabrera on the 15-Day Injured List
Denny Hamlin

the Favorite to Win at Charlotte
Tyler Reddick

on Pole for Coca-Cola 600
Christopher Bell

Could Break Out of Slump
Kyle Larson

May have A Solid Day at Charlotte
Ryan Blaney

Is A DFS Risk for Charlotte Lineups
William Byron

Could have A Great DFS Performance at Charlotte
Chase Briscoe

Is A Solid Tournament Option for Charlotte DFS Lineups
Pat Freiermuth

Steelers Restructure Pat Freiermuth's Contract
Ty Gibbs

May not be Worth his Salary for Charlotte DFS Lineups
Chris Buescher

May be a Sneaky Tournament Option for Charlotte Lineups
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Has Favorable Upside for Charlotte DFS Lineups
Ross Chastain

Is A Strong Addition for DFS Lineups at Charlotte
Austin Dillon

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Austin Dillon for Charlotte DFS Lineups?
Chase Elliott

Should Be Strong at Charlotte
Carson Hocevar

Confident for Coca-Cola 600
Corey Heim

a Chalk DFS Pick at Charlotte
Michael McDowell

Is Michael McDowell A Tournament Option for Charlotte Lineups?
Jordan Mason

a Short-Term Dynasty Depth Piece
Dontayvion Wicks

Can Dontayvion Wicks Stand Out in Another Crowded Offense?
Chuba Hubbard

Dynasty Value Back on the Rise
Juwan Johnson

an Overlooked Buy Candidate for Contending Dynasty Managers
Kimani Vidal

Easily Acquirable as a High-Value Insurance Back
Evan Mobley

Tallies Series-High 24 Points on Saturday
Donovan Mitchell

Struggles at the Line Saturday
Karl-Anthony Towns

Continues Playmaking Surge on Saturday
OG Anunoby

Delivers Clean Shooting Line Saturday
Mikal Bridges

Fills Box Score in Game 3 Win
Jalen Brunson

Pushes Knicks Closer to NBA Finals
Orlando Magic

Magic Interview Jeff Van Gundy for Head-Coaching Position
Phillip Danault

Extends Point Streak to Three Games
Josh Anderson

Nets Two Goals in Painful Loss
Jalen Chatfield

Delivers Two Assists in Crucial Win
Mark Jankowski

Contributes Two Assists in Game 2 Victory
Eric Robinson

Scores in Second Consecutive Game
Nikolaj Ehlers

Tallies Two Goals as Hurricanes Bounce Back Saturday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Magic Reportedly Have Giannis Antetokounmpo on Their Radar
Ja'Tavion Sanders

a Dynasty Dart Throw With Potential Untapped Upside
Geno Smith

a Low-Cost Dynasty Add Who Still Comes with Risk
C.J. Stroud

Still a Capable and Undervalued Dynasty QB2
Bhayshul Tuten

More Big Plays in 2026 Could Transform Bhayshul Tuten into a Dynasty Steal
Joe Mixon

Is Joe Mixon's NFL Career Over?
MLB

Orioles-Tigers Game Postponed on Saturday
RJ Harvey

to be Relegated to Third-Down Role After Rookie RB Addition?
MLB

Rays-Yankees Postponed on Saturday
Nazem Kadri

Contributes an Assist in Losing Effort
Ross Colton

Nets Lone Avalanche Goal Friday Night
Rasmus Andersson

Extends Assist Streak to Four Games
Pavel Dorofeyev

Focuses on Playmaking in Friday's Win
Jack Eichel

Enjoys Multi-Point Outing in Game 2 Win Friday
Ivan Barbashev

Amasses Three Points as Golden Knights Grab 2-0 Series Lead
Mickey Moniak

Heads to Injured List With Ankle Sprain
Frederik Andersen

Hurricanes Keep Faith in Frederik Andersen
Devon Levi

Attracting Interest From Senators
Jackson Merrill

has Sore Ribs, Expected to Avoid Injured List
CFB

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele Looking to Take Sophomore Leap
CFB

Jadan Baugh Primed to Lead Florida Offense in 2026
CFB

LSU Hires Ed Orgeron As Special Assistant
CFB

North Carolina and South Carolina Cancel Home-And-Home Series
CFB

Confidence High in Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor
MLB

Reds-Cardinals Game Postponed on Friday
Trevor Story

has Hernia Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-10 Weeks
Roman Anthony

Dealing With Sprained Ligament in his Finger
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Exits Early, X-Rays Come Back Negative
Robby Snelling

Will Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Jackson Merrill

Tweaks his Back on Wednesday, Pulled Early
CFB

Lincoln Riley Believes USC is Ready for Playoff Run
CFB

Notre Dame-Stanford Rivalry Renewed Through 2028
CFB

Ahmad Hardy Says He's "Back to the Road to Success"
CFB

Texas Tech Graduate Judge Recuses Himself from Brendan Sorsby Case
CFB

UCLA Tackle Jordan Davis Officially Eligible for 2026 Season
CFB

Bret Bielema Supports Significant College Football Playoff Expansion
Michael Thorbjornsen

Brings High Upside to CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Luke List

Carrying Poor Form Into CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Tom Kim

Hoping to Build on Strong Myrtle Beach Finish
PGA

Sungjae Im Brings Upside to TPC Craig Ranch
Billy Horschel

Looking for Turnaround at CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Adam Hadwin

Difficult to Trust at TPC Craig Ranch
Tony Finau

Looking for Consistency at TPC Craig Ranch
Luke Clanton

Searching for Form at CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Aaron Rai

Withdraws From CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Wyndham Clark

Can Wyndham Clark Find Form at CJ Cup?
Si Woo Kim

Looks To Stay Hot at CJ Cup
Scottie Scheffler

to Defend CJ Cup Byron Nelson Title This Week
Jordan Spieth

Looking For Victory at TPC Craig Ranch
PGA

Matti Schmid Looks to Keep Recent Momentum Going at TPC Craig Ranch
Brooks Koepka

a High-Upside Play at CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Yandy Díaz

Yandy Diaz Exits Early on Tuesday After Being Hit By Pitch
Chris Kirk

Continues Search For Putting Form at TPC Craig Ranch
Rasmus Hojgaard

Looking to Shake Off Poor Major Showing at TPC Craig Ranch
Joel Dahmen

is of No DFS Consideration This Week in Dallas
Pierceson Coody

is Not The Fun DFS Play He Used to Be
Gerrit Cole

to Make Season Debut on Friday Against Rays
Drake Baldwin

Braves Place Drake Baldwin on Injured List With Oblique Strain
CFB

Ezavier Crowell has Immediate Opportunity at Alabama
CFB

Mark Bowman a Day 1 Impact Player for USC?
CFB

Bill Belichick Says Relationship with First North Carolina Team "Wasn't Great"
CFB

Kemario Taylor a Breakout Candidate at Quarterback
CFB

Trinidad Chambliss the Undisputed Top SEC Quarterback Entering 2026?
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF