TAP FOR 6 MONTHS OF PREMIUM FREE 💰
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Breakout Players at 1B and 3B and What It Means For 2016

Welcome back to our weekly series running through November looking at players at each position who experienced breakout campaigns. I'll also run another segment detailing the busts at each position.

Previously we looked at breakouts and busts up the middle (2B, SS, C). Here we will be focusing on the hot corners. No, Paul Goldschmidt returning to his place as the No. 1 first basemen does not count as a breakout.

In addition to focusing on breakout players and what went right in 2015, I'll provide some context as to whether the production is sustainable or if we were witnessing a fluky season. Let's get started.

 

Breakout Players at 1B

Eric Hosmer (KC - 1B)

2015 Statistics: 667 PA, .297/.363/.459, 77 R, 19 HR, 81 RBI, 6 SB

Now this is what the Royals were looking for when they made Eric Hosmer the third overall pick in the 2008 draft. Hosmer set career-highs in runs, RBI's, on-base percentage, wRC+ (125), and wOBA (.355) for the 2015 World Series champs. He finished the year as the No. 7 fantasy first basemen, ahead of Jose Abreu, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, and Adrian Gonzalez. Each of those guys was drafted ahead of Hosmer.

It was the most complete season Hosmer has put forth to this point and the numbers lead me to believe he's here to stay. Hosmer showed significant improvement to his plate approach in 2015. He swung at 12% fewer pitches outside the strike zone which in turn helped increase his walk rate. By being more selective he was able to hone in on his pitches, as evidenced by his improved line drive rate.

The only statistic I have trouble believing will be replicated is the average. Hosmer was boosted by a spectacular July where he batted .385. Take that out and he hit .279. For reference, his career average is .280. It'd be nice for Hosmer to nab double-digit steals like he did from 2011-2013, but fantasy owners will let that slide if he reaches 90/90 again for R+RBI. Steamer has him projected for a .285/.348/.448 split with 77 R, 19 HR, 81 RBI, and 6 SB. The splits and the power sound about right, but write me down for Hosmer eclipsing the R+RBI marks.

 

Mitch Moreland (TEX - 1B, OF)

2015 Statistics: 515 PA, .278/.330/.482, 51 R, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 1 SB

Moreland getting back to the 20 HR mark he attained in 2013 wasn't the shocker of his campaign. It was the across the board improvement in his slash line. In 2013 (his last time eclipsing 500 PA) Moreland posted a .232/.299/.437. Far from fantasy-friendly.

Moreland set career-highs at RBI, wRC+ (115), and wOBA (.348). He didn't see drastic improvements in his plate discipline; his walk rate actually declined while he still struck out a ton (21.7% K rate). So what allowed Moreland to make such a jump?

Take a look at his 2014 heatmap.

 

Mitch Moreland Heatmap - 2014 (FanGraphs)

Mitch Moreland Heatmap - 2014 (FanGraphs)

And here's 2015.

Mitch Moreland Heatmap - 2015 (FanGraphs)

Mitch Moreland Heatmap - 2015 (FanGraphs)

Notice the improvement for pitches low and away. He hounded pitchers who threw it in his wheel house. He wasn't afraid to go the other way either, hitting .321 with six HR to the opposite field.

There's no doubting the power is real with Moreland. The issue going forward is the average. Moreland's 2015 stat line was heavily influenced by a ginormous June (.323, 9 HR, 25 RBI). Remove that month and he hit .266 with 14 HR and 60 RBI.

Steamer currently projects Moreland for a .253/.313/.432 slash with 63 R, 20 HR, and 70 RBI. Those are fair projections, but Moreland losing the OF tag will hurt his draft value come March. Among first baseman Moreland finished 21st in fantasy points. Unless you play in a deep league with CI slots, give Moreland a pass come draft day.

 

Breakout Players at 3B

Kris Bryant (CHC - 3B)

2015 Statistics: 650 PA, .275/.369/.488, 87 R, 26 HR, 99 RBI, 13 SB

I had the privilege of watching Kris Bryant during his time at the University of San Diego. He was a can't-miss prospect and every at-bat was must watch material, the reason you attended the game. But even I was taken by surprise by his debut.

It wasn't that I doubted Bryant's talents, it was how quickly he translated that skill set to big league pitching. Bryant took baseball by storm after arriving in the second week of the season, winning NL Rookie of the Year in an unanimous vote. He finished in the top 5 in runs (5th), RBI (3rd), stolen bases (2nd) and OBP (3rd), easily eclipsing his ADP coming into 2015.

If there's a downside to Bryant, it's he loves to swing. His 30.6% K rate was third worst among qualified hitters. It's not like he chases crappy pitches either; his 16.5% SwStr% was fourth worst among qualified hitters. Not the best sign, but at least he's shown he has the plate discipline to succeed (his 11.8% walk rate was second among 3B).

Had we known Bryant would basically play a full campaign he likely would've been a top 40 pick. Going into 2016 he's a shoe-in for the first two rounds, given the drop-off at third base after the top four (Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Kris Bryant). Consider Bryant a great bet for a 30/100 campaign with a slight dip in average. The real question becomes to you draft him or....

 

Manny Machado (BAL - 3B)

2015 Statistics: 713 PA, .286/.359/.502, 102 R, 35 HR, 86 RBI, 20 SB

Machado really doesn't belong on this list. He broke out in 2013 when he hit .283 with 88 R and 51 doubles while playing gold-glove winning defense. A 2014 knee injury limited him to 82 games and saw him drop to the 10-12 rankings among third baseman going into 2015.

Safe to say he won't be available in drafts that late this time around. He had an incredible season, finishing as the No. 3 third baseman while setting career-highs across the board and posting the only 35/20 campaign (shout out to Goldschmidt for his 33/21). If it wasn't for Donaldson and Arenado he'd be getting way more praise for his season.

Machado's excellent season really started kicking into gear after a crazy June (.365, 23 R, 8 HR, 22 RBI, 4 SB) and finished with a bang after hitting nine HR in September. There's not much to not like about Machado. The numbers versus LHP need some work (.258, 7 HR), but the AL East is quite barren of good lefties (assuming David Price leaves town).

He's an excellent power/speed combo in a fantasy-friendly ballpark. The one question is how much he'll miss Chris Davis' presence in the lineup. My guess is not much since Adam Jones resides after Machado, although the run total may take a hit. Draft Machado with confidence in the first 20 picks.

 

Justin Turner (LAD - 2B, 3B)

2015 Statistics: 438 PA, .294/.370/.491, 55 R, 16 HR, 60 RBI, 5 SB

Everyone loves a late bloomer. Turner, 30, had only eclipsed 400 PA once in his career (2011) and only got a shot in 2014 after injuries to Hanley Ramirez and Juan Uribe depleted the Dodgers depth. He responded by hitting .340 in 322 AB. Considering his .404 BABIP, many folks called for regression. Real shocker there.

Even more shocking is they were wrong. One year after posting 21.4 runs above average, Turner posted 20.9. In just 117 more PA, he hit nine more homers and drove in 17 more runners. Sure the average plummeted, but I think most everyone would take a .294 average. He was especially helpful in OBP-leagues, finishing third among 3B (if he qualified). A troublesome knee hampered his August (.161) and he never fully recovered. He had microscopic surgery on the left knee and should be ready for Spring Training.

One of the biggest strengths to owning Turner in 2015 was his versatility. He qualified at 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B in Yahoo! leagues, but going into 2016 he's losing the 2B and SS tags after not reaching the minimum. That severely hinders Turner's draft value. Look for similar numbers with a slightly depressed on-base percentage, which leaves him just outside the top-10 for third basemen for 2016.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

LeBron James

Available Versus Sacramento
Zion Williamson

Ruled Out Versus Clippers
Shelby Miller

Officially Placed on 60-Day Injured List
Kevin Love

Resting Monday Against Nuggets
Jacob deGrom

is Nearing Spring Debut
Tristan Vukcevic

Could Miss Game Vs. Houston
José Soriano

Jose Soriano has Start Pushed Back
John Collins

Cleared to Play Sunday
Bobby Miller

Being Viewed as Reliever
Brandon Clarke

to be Re-Evaluated in Two Weeks
Walker Jenkins

is Diagnosed with Hamstring Strain
Caleb Martin

Returns Against Thunder
P.J. Washington

Naji Marshall Ruled Out Sunday
Kyshawn George

Could Miss Game Against Houston
Baylor Scheierman

Cleared to Play Sunday
Rui Hachimura

Set to Return Against Kings
LeBron James

Questionable Against Kings
Jonathan Drouin

Unavailable Sunday
Darcy Kuemper

Won't Play Monday Due to Illness
Andrew Mangiapane

Oilers Place Andrew Mangiapane on Waivers
Jabari Smith Jr.

Still Out on Monday
Uvis Balinskis

Out Sunday
Jalen Johnson

Back on Sunday Night
Dmitry Kulikov

Comes Off Injured Reserve
Mark Stone

Exits With Injury Sunday
Deni Avdija

Remains Out on Sunday
Zach Edey

to Undergo Another Ankle Surgery
Merrill Kelly

"Optimistic" About Being Ready by Opening Day
Gabriel Moreno

Can Gabriel Moreno Put Together a Fully Healthy Season in 2026?
Mark Vientos

May Be Limited to Part-Time Role in New York
Kyler Murray

Likely to be Released
Noah Cameron

Can Noah Cameron Repeat His Breakout 2025 Season?
Justin Steele

"Full-Go" on Throwing, Still Eyeing May or June Return
Travis Etienne Jr.

Not Expected to be Franchise-Tagged
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Planning to Release Aaron Jones Sr.?
Samuel Basallo

is Returning on Sunday
St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Sign Oliver Marmol to Two-Year Extension
Thomas White

is Diagnosed with Oblique Strain
Carmen Mlodzinski

to Compete for Starting Rotation Spot
Tyler Reddick

Could Make History at COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Still the Favorite at COTA
Christopher Bell

Will Be Tough to Beat at COTA
Jacob Melton

is Returning on Sunday
AJ Allmendinger

Could Contend at COTA
Connor Zilisch

Carries Plenty of Upside for DFS at COTA
Chase Elliott

May be A Strong Contender Again at COTA
Chris Buescher

Is Nothing But Consistent at Road Courses
Ross Chastain

May Be An Underrated Competitor for the Win at COTA
William Byron

Is William Byron a Viable DFS Option for COTA?
Carson Hocevar

Needs Clean Race at COTA
Nick Suzuki

Enjoys Three-Point Night Against Capitals
Rasmus Dahlin

Collects Three Points Saturday
Kyle Larson

Could be A Decent DFS Option for COTA Lineups
Joel Kiviranta

in Concussion Protocol
Joel Eriksson Ek

Available Sunday
Ryan Blaney

Could Ryan Blaney be A Sleeper DFS Option for All Formats for COTA?
Mark Scheifele

Expected to Play Sunday
Chase Briscoe

Should DFS Players Roster Chase Briscoe at COTA?
Adam Wilsby

Exits Early Versus Stars
Gage Goncalves

Hurt in Saturday's Loss
Russell Westbrook

Off Injury Report Sunday
Kawhi Leonard

Set to Play Against Pelicans
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Is A Favorable Value Option for COTA DFS Lineups
Ty Gibbs

Could Ty Gibbs Be A Rosterable DFS Play for COTA?
Michael McDowell

Is Michael McDowell A Favorable DFS Option for COTA?
Donovan Mitchell

to Miss Third Straight Game
Joel Embiid

Sidelined Three Games with Oblique Injury
Cooper Flagg

Remains Sidelined Sunday
Cale Makar

Scores Twice Versus Chicago
Connor McDavid

has a Three-Assist Game
Keston Hiura

Exits After Getting Hit by Pitch
Leo De Vries

Exits Early on Saturday
Kyle Stowers

is Dealing with Minor Hamstring Strain
Cody Bellinger

Dealing With Back Injury
Corbin Carroll

Likely to be Ready for Opening Day
Vladislav Namestnikov

Out Week-to-Week
Nino Niederreiter

Recovering From Surgery
Colton Parayko

Doubtful for Sunday
Zach Benson

Activated From Injured Reserve
Anthony Cirelli

a Game-Time Decision Saturday
Roope Hintz

Remains Out Saturday
Starling Marte

Royals Agree With Starling Marte
A.J. Brown

Patriots "Have Explored Trade Talks" Involving A.J. Brown
Lone'er Kavanagh

Set For UFC Mexico City Main Event
Brandon Moreno

Looks To Bounce Back
David Martinez

Set For UFC Mexico City Co-Main Event
Marlon Vera

In Dire Need Of Victory
King Green

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Daniel Zellhuber

Aims To Snap Two-Fight Skid
Felipe Bunes

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Édgar Cháirez

Edgar Chairez A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
George Pickens

Cowboys Not Interested in Trading George Pickens
Ashton Jeanty

Not in Line for Workhorse Role in 2026?
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Colts Give Anthony Richardson Sr. Permission to Seek a Trade
Kyler Murray

Prefers to be Released
Derek Carr

"Strong Belief" That Derek Carr is "Very Serious" About Unretiring
Andy Dalton

Is Andy Dalton Available for a Trade?
Keith Mitchell

Making The Comfortable Return to PGA National
CFB

Chandler Morris Suing NCAA for Seventh Year of Eligibility
Chris Kirk

Searching for a Spark at Cognizant Classic
Brooks Koepka

Making Third PGA Tour Start at Cognizant Classic
Mackenzie Hughes

a Steady Option at Cognizant Classic
Seamus Power

Seeking More Green in Florida
PGA

Haotong Li Back From a Break as Florida Stretch Starts
Stephan Jaeger

Trying to Put Four Rounds Together in Florida
PGA

Nico Echavarria Again Attempting to Make the Weekend
Patrick Fishburn

Looking for a Spark at Cognizant Classic
Blades Brown

Set for Cognizant Classic Debut
Michael Thorbjornsen

Looking to Bounce Back at Cognizant Classic
Maxx Crosby

Raiders Expect Maxx Crosby to Return
Billy Horschel

Looks to Improve Season at Cognizant Classic
Kyle Pitts Sr.

Falcons Place Franchise Tag on Kyle Pitts Sr.
Joe Highsmith

Returns to Defend at Cognizant Classic
Quinshon Judkins

Out of Walking Boot, Will be Ready for Training Camp
Breece Hall

Jets Will Use Franchise Tag on Breece Hall if Extension isn't Reached
Joel Dahmen

Needs Better Consistency Heading Into The Florida Swing
Daniel Berger

Looks to Improve Putting as PGA Tour Begins Its Florida Swing
Kirk Cousins

Falcons Plan to Release Kirk Cousins
Zach Ertz

Plans to Return for 14th Season
Davis Thompson

Struggling to Find Birdies as Florida Looms
Tom Kim

Not Quite Cutting It in 2026
Nicolai Hojgaard

Wants to Build Momentum from Scottsdale
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Returns After Extended Break for Florida Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF