👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 50% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

Breakout Players at 2B, SS, and C and What It Means For 2016

Having some baseball withdrawal yet? Welcome to the club. That's why I'm starting a weekly series running through November looking at players at each position who experienced breakout campaigns. I'll also run another segment detailing the busts at each position.

This edition will focus on middle infielders and backstops. My selections will be influenced by their respective ADP (Average Draft Position) coming into 2015. That means while Mookie Betts had an excellent season ranking as the No. 3 second baseman, he will not be highlighted due to his high ADP (4th among 2B).

In addition to focusing on breakout players and what went right in 2015, I'll provide some context as to whether the production is sustainable or if we were witnessing a fluky season. This is going to be a lengthy piece as we tackle three positions (2B, SS, C) so grab a drink and some popcorn. Let's get started.

 

Breakout Players at 2B

Matt Duffy (SF - 2B, 3B, SS)

2015 Statistics: .295/.334/.428, 77 R, 12 HR, 77 RBI, 12 SB

Before I start, yes I realize Duffy made only seven starts at second base, but in most formats that's enough to retain eligibility. So deal with it.

Duffy is a great example of why you should pay more attention to a player's minor league development. An 18th round pick in the 2012 Amateur Draft, Duffy was fantastic in 2014 for AA-Richmond, compiling a .332/.398/.444 split in 417 PA. After being promoted to the big leagues in 2014 he failed to impress in 64 PA, which may have led to his poor ADP going into 2015.

Duffy was ranked 35th among 2B going into the 2015, behind the likes of Scooter Gennett, Javier Baez, Chris Owings, and Brad Miller. Duffy proved all the doubters wrong, posting a 4.9 WAR (2nd overall among 2B). He didn't lead qualified 2B in any category, but he was a balanced enough contributor in 5x5 formats to rank 8th overall.

So can Duffy repeat his 2015 success? I'm inclined to say no, although I still believe Duffy will be a useful fantasy commodity. His .336 BABIP was 5th among qualified 2B which may be a cause for concern for some, but I think it's sustainable. Check out his spray chart below.

Matt Duffy Spray Chart for 2015 (per FanGraphs)

Matt Duffy Spray Chart for 2015 (per FanGraphs)

Duffy has shown the ability to spread the ball to all fields along with solid plate discipline. His 29.9 O-Swing% (percentage of pitches swung at outside the strike zone) was 8th among qualified 2B and on par with his minor league numbers.

The stat that concerns me is the .366 average with RISP. That ranked second among hitters with at least 100 PA with RISP, trailing only Nolan Arenado (.373). Is that sustainable? Unlikely. But that doesn't mean the regression will be drastic. Batting in front of Buster Posey means plenty of fastballs. With a healthy Joe Panik and Hunter Pence, the top of the Giants lineup should be formidable once again in 2016. Look for Duffy to remain a top-10 2B option, just don't overpay for his services.

 

Logan Forsythe (TB - 1B, 2B)

2015 Statistics: .281/.359/.444, 69 R, 17 HR, 68 RBI, 9 SB

Here's another name that was on no one's radar coming into 2015. \Forsythe was given an everyday playing opportunity with Tampa Bay and made the most of it, setting career-highs in the respective categories above. His offensive 16.6 runs above average placed him 2nd among all 2B, while his .163 ISO ranked fourth among 2B, ahead of Robinson Cano, Jason Kipnis, and Neil Walker.

So what went right for Forsythe? The biggest adjustment was his ability to handle righties. Check out his splits vs RHP from 2014 to 2015.

Forsythe RvR

Logan Forsythe - Splits vs RHP (2014-2015)

He improved in every facet against righties. The biggest takeaway is the improved bat discipline; a better walk rate means more pitches in hitter-friendly counts. Forsythe's .323 average when ahead in the count exemplifies that.

Can Forsythe translate this success over to 2016? That's hard to bet on. His .323 BABIP and .350 wOBA were both career highs, but he did adjust his plate approach by lifting his leg a bit higher and Rays hitting coach Derek Shelton was adamant with Forsythe about remaining consistent. Fantasy owners are likely to be as skeptical come draft time next year, so Forsythe should come at fair value. His 2016 projections currently have him as a .254 AVG, 13 HR, 61 RBI player. In the shallow pool that is second base, that's a top-10 option.

 

Breakout Players at SS

Carlos Correa (HOU - SS)

2015 Statistics: .279/.345/.512, 52 R, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 14 SB

Go ahead and read that stat line above. Now remind yourself that Carlos Correa is 21 years old. Talk about Dallas Keuchel and Jose Altuve all you want. Without Correa there is no way the Astros make the playoffs in 2015. After joining the team in June, Correa went on to lead all shortstops in HR (22), SLG (.512), wOBA (.365), wRC+ (133), and ISO (.233). And he didn't even eclipse 435 PA. To say the future is bright for Correa is an understatement. He's on pace to melt our faces.

It's almost impossible to find a flaw with Correa. He hits both righties and lefties effectively, and he has power to all fields. If there's one downside it's the home/road splits as he managed to hit .243 away from Minute Maid Park. Minute Maid is a more RHB-friendly environment, but I'm willing to chalk that up as a small sample size. It's definitely not enough to shy away from Correa come draft day.

His current 2016 projections according to Steamer are .275/.340/.458 with 83 R, 22 HR, 84 RBI, and 21 SB. The same amount of homers with an extra 200 AB? I don't think so. Look for Correa to reach 30 HR and become a sure-fire top 15 pick for years to come.

 

Xander Bogaerts (BOS - 3B, SS)

2015 Statistics: .320/.355/.421, 84 R, 7 HR, 81 RBI, 10 SB

Bogaerts wasn't technically a part of the Year of the Rookie but he definitely is included in the youth movement at shortstop. Just 23 years old, Bogaerts led all SS in runs, average, and on-base percentage while trailing only Brandon Crawford (84) in the RBI department. These numbers are quite a leap from his disastrous 2014 campaign (.240/.297/.362). So what changed?

He abandoned the pull-happy tendencies that plagued his 2014 season. His pull rate dropped to 33.8% (46.9% in '14) while going the other way 32.0% of the time (19.3% in '14). As a result his fly ball rate dived from 41.3% to 25.8% and his ground ball rate climbed to 52.7%. To top it all off, the strikeout rate was a career best, minors included.

His .372 BABIP was tops among all shortstops by a large margin (Troy Tulowitski, .331), a number Bogaerts will have difficulty maintaining. He did have 30 infield hits (1st among SS) but he isn't a blazing fast baserunner, leading me to believe regression is due. That isn't to say Bogaerts can't hit .300 again and be a useful fantasy SS. Just don't draft him anticipating a repeat of his .320 average.

Steamer has him projected at 76 R, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 7 SB and a .293/.343/.421 line. Bogaerts should start the year near the top of the Red Sox order. With potential rebound seasons from Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, I think he'll eclipse the projections in R/RBI numbers easily. Draft Bogaerts with confidence in 2016 after the big names are off the board.

 

Brandon Crawford (SF - SS)

2015 Statistics: .256/.321/.462, 65 R, 21 HR, 84 RBI, 6 SB

We all knew Crawford as an above-average defender and fringe fantasy option coming into 2015. He left the season as arguably the best fantasy shortstop in the National League. Crawford led all shortstops in RBI and was one behind Correa in the HR category, shattering preseason projections.

This was a big jump from 2014. He more than doubled his HR total from 2014 (10) and, as you may expect, saw his power (ISO) shoot up to .205 (.143 in '14). One of the big differences was Crawford's aggressiveness. He swung at pitches outside the strike zone 19.7% more often, a stat that sounds worrisome until you look into it further.

Here is Crawford's 2014 Heatmap.

Brandon Crawford Heatmap - 2014 (FanGraphs

Brandon Crawford Heatmap - 2014 (FanGraphs)

And here is 2015.

Brandon Crawford Heatmap - 2015 (FanGraphs)

Brandon Crawford Heatmap - 2015 (FanGraphs)

Crawford maintained the heat zones he inhabited before and expanded it to pitches below the middle of the plate. He still wasn't allowing pitches to beat him in on the hands while also displaying power to all fields. He had five opposite field home runs in 2015, in contrast to zero the year before.

Is Crawford a legitimate candidate for 20 HR again? Yes, I think he is. He battled through injuries in the second half and still managed to hit nine. But the homers are coming with an average below .250. Crawford managed to hit .256 due in large part to a fantastic May (.340 AVG). Take that month out and he hit .234. Let someone else overpay for Crawford in 2016 and try and find the next breakout shortstop (My vote: Addison Russell).

 

Breakout Players at C

Kyle Schwarber (CHC - C, OF)

2015 Statistics: .246/.355/.487, 52 R, 16 HR, 43 RBI, 3 SB

SCHWARBO! OK, got that out of my system. Nothing was more fun than celebrating a Schwarber homer run in 2015, and there numerous chances to do so. His 16 homers came in just 69 games, and in non-dynasty formats most owners got the power-hitting catcher for free. Finding a spot on the field became an issue when Miguel Montero returned and after watching Schwarber flail in left field in the NLCS, management must prioritize finding Schwarber a home. For us fantasy owners, all that matters is the C eligibility remains thanks to his 15 starts behind the plate.

With catcher being such a shallow spot in fantasy, Schwarber is going to be a hot fantasy commodity next year, and rightfully so. Ignore the fact his 16 HR was only 8th among catchers, unless you'll acknowledge he did so in 200 less AB. Do pay attention to the .241 ISO (1st) and the keen plate discipline (13.2 BB% - 1st). Schwarber is the only catcher with a legitimate shot to eclipse 30 HR. If the Cubs let him play everyday, then 40 homers are within reach. Add in the OBP bonus for 6x6 leagues, and we have a top 60 pick. You want to take Buster Posey first, go ahead, just don't be foolish and grab Carlos Santana over Schwarbo.

 

Stephen Vogt (OAK - C, 1B, OF)

2015 Statistics: .261/.341/.443, 58 R, 18 HR, 71 RBI, 0 SB

Like a fine wine, it pays to be patient. Except for us it's more about catchers (and closers). Vogt was seen as an OBP play in deep leagues on draft day and ended up as the No. 8 catcher in fantasy baseball. It was Vogt's first chance at an everyday role since entering baseball in 2012 and he made the most of it, setting career highs across the board.

One of the biggest improvements was the walk rate. His 11.0% BB rate was 2nd among catchers (Schwarber) and more in line with his minor league track record.  The 18 home runs shouldn't come as a complete shock; he did hit nine in 287 AB in 2014. It should be noted 11 came in the first two months.

The case against Vogt replicating his 2015 success lies in his monthly splits. He hit .217 with only four homers in an injury-plagued second half. It's tough to trust Vogt to duplicate his numbers, and in 5x5 formats where his OBP is null and void, he's outside the top-10 for 2016.

 

J.T. Realmuto (MIA - C)

2015 Statistics: .259/.290/.406, 49 R, 10 HR, 47 RBI, 8 SB

Quick Quiz: Who led all catchers in steals in 2015? It was our next breakout subject, Realmuto. In his first full season of action (only 11 games in 2014) he became one of the few bright spots on the Miami Marlins.

Realmuto really came alive to end the year - he hit .338 with three HR, eight RBI, and two SB in the month of September. I try not get overly excited about players finishing strong but in the case of young players it can be a sign of positive adjustments. The plate discipline is still very poor here. His .290 OBP and 4.9% walk rate were both third worst among catchers last season, severely hindering his potential in 6x6 formats.

The biggest plus for Realmuto is the power/speed combo as he heads to 2016. I believe J.T. Realmuto will be the only catcher to post a 10/10 season. He had 18 steals in 2014 for the AA-Club and he should eclipse double digits in HR again. In standard formats, Realmuto will likely go after the top-10 catchers are off the board. But NL-Only owners should prioritize the Marlins catcher and let opponents overpay for the likes of Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 50% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NFL

Arvell Reese Could Generate Trade Interest in the Top 10 of NFL Draft
DeForest Buckner

Colts Targeting a Training Camp Return for DeForest Buckner
Michael Harris II

Continues to Heat Up With Two-Homer Game on Wednesday
Francisco Lindor

Leaves Wednesday's Game Early With Calf Tightness
JR Ritchie

Earns Promotion, Will Make MLB Debut on Thursday
Jakob Poeltl

Expected to Bounce Back Thursday
Jordan Goodwin

Collin Gillespie Replaces Jordan Goodwin in Starting Unit for Game 2
Rob Dillingham

Undergoes Wrist Procedure
Grayson Allen

Cleared to Play Wednesday
Keldon Johnson

Lands Sixth Man of the Year Award
Jordan Goodwin

Won't Play Wednesday
Mark Williams

Misses Wednesday's Action
Ja'Kobe Walter

Could Miss Pivotal Game 3
Peyton Watson

Remains Out for Game 3
Aaron Gordon

Likely to Play in Game 3
Anthony Edwards

' Status Uncertain for Game 3
Thomas Bryant

Iffy for Game 3
Immanuel Quickley

Questionable for Game 3
Jonathan Isaac

Ruled Out for Game 2
Noah Ostlund

Could Return Thursday
Pontus Holmberg

Will Miss Round 1
Charle-Edouard D'Astous

Could Be an Option Friday
Victor Hedman

Traveling With Team
Radko Gudas

Unavailable for Game 2
Los Angeles Rams

Rams Increasingly Likely to Draft a First-Round Wide Receiver?
Yakov Trenin

Considered a Game-Time Decision Wednesday
Shedeur Sanders

Gets First Reps in Team Workouts
Mats Zuccarello

a Game-Time Call Wednesday
Wyatt Langford

Expected to Go on Injured List With Flexor Strain
NFL

Chris Bell is Ahead of Schedule in ACL Rehab
NFL

Caleb Banks on Pace for Football Activities in June
Maikel Garcia

Leaves Early on Wednesday With Elbow Soreness
Carson Beck

Could Carson Beck be a First-Round Pick in the NFL Draft?
Roman Anthony

Day-to-Day With Sore Back
Juan Soto

Officially Back in Mets Lineup on Wednesday
J.T. Realmuto

Phillies Place J.T. Realmuto on Injured List With Back Injury
Lucas Giolito

Signs With Padres, Worth a Waiver-Wire Pickup?
Ryan Helsley

Orioles Put Ryan Helsley on Bereavement List on Wednesday
George Pickens

to Play on Franchise Tag in 2026
Quinshon Judkins

Spotted at Voluntary Offseason Workouts
Isaiah Davis

Remains Without a Clear Pathway to Playing Time in New York
Kyle Pitts Sr.

Chiefs Looking to Acquire Kyle Pitts Sr. From the Falcons?
Kaleb Johnson

Does Kaleb Johnson Still Carry Dynasty Buy-Low Appeal?
DK Metcalf

Should Dynasty Managers Be Looking to Sell on DK Metcalf?
Trey McBride

Is Trey McBride Currently Undervalued in Dynasty Leagues?
Carolina Panthers

Kenyon Sadiq Linked to Panthers in Mock Drafts
Wan'Dale Robinson

Could Be Primed for Breakout Year with the Titans
Brock Purdy

Is Brock Purdy a Sneaky Buy-Low Candidate for Dynasty Managers?
Arizona Cardinals

Jeremiyah Love a "Logical Pick" if Cardinals Stay at No. 3 in NFL Draft
CFB

Beau Pribula Leading Virginia Quarterback Competition
Jalen McMillan

a Low-Cost Buy Who Can Provide Spike Weeks
Jack Eichel

Sets Up Two Goals Tuesday
Justin Jefferson

Buy Window is Closing Fast
Artemi Panarin

Records Another Power-Play Goal
Dylan Guenther

Enjoys Multi-Point Outing Tuesday Night
J.J. McCarthy

Is J.J. McCarthy Worth Buying Low?
Viktor Arvidsson

Strikes Twice in Game 2 Win
Lane Hutson

Nets First Career Postseason Goal
Brandon Hagel

Records Tampa Bay's First Postseason Gordie Howe Hat Trick
Nikita Kucherov

Ends 16-Game Postseason Goal Drought
Scoot Henderson

Erupts for 31 Points in Series-Tying Victory
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Fills Stat Sheet in Losing Effort
Kevin Durant

Commits Nine Turnovers in Game 2 Loss
Marcus Smart

Catches Fire in Game 2
LeBron James

Leads Lakers to Victory With Game-High 28 Points
Jake LaRavia

Exits Early Tuesday
Harrison Barnes

Injures Left Wrist in Game 2
Marco Penge

Trending Down Entering Zurich Classic
Sahith Theegala

Eyes Another Strong Week at Zurich Classic
Brooks Koepka

Shane Lowry Teams Up with Brooks Koepka at Zurich Classic
Si Woo Kim

Adds Another Strong Finish at RBC Heritage
Elly De La Cruz

Early-Season Breakout Continues on Tuesday
Wyatt Langford

Pulled Early on Tuesday With Forearm Tightness
Luke Clanton

Hoping to Find Form in New Orleans
Jackson Holliday

Leaves Rehab Game With Hand Discomfort
Corbin Carroll

Returns to Arizona's Lineup Against White Sox
Scottie Scheffler

is Starting to Hit His Stride
Brooks Koepka

Looking for Progress in PGA Return With Partner at Zurich Classic
Matt Fitzpatrick

Looks to Share Recent Form at Zurich Classic
Zack Wheeler

to Make Season Debut on Saturday
Jonathan Toews

Undecided on NHL Future
Jonathan Huberdeau

Expects to Be Ready for Training Camp
DAL

Nathan Bastian Not Expected to Play Before Round 2
Roope Hintz

Doubtful for Game 4
Adam Henrique

Won't Play in Game 2 Against Ducks
Victor Hedman

Doubtful to Play in Round 1
Charle-Edouard D'Astous

Unavailable Tuesday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Back in Leadoff Spot on Tuesday After Injury Scare
CFB

Ashton Daniels Named Florida State's Starting Quarterback
Juan Soto

Expected to Return on Wednesday
Royce Lewis

Twins Reinstate Royce Lewis From Injured List on Tuesday
Adley Rutschman

Activated From Injured List on Tuesday
Dylan Cease

Continues Strong Start With 12-Strikeout Performance
Raisel Iglesias

Placed on 15-Day Injured List with Shoulder Inflammation
Tyler Reddick

Earns His Fifth Win of the 2026 Season at Kansas
Kyle Larson

Finishes as the Runner-Up at Kansas
Chase Briscoe

Rallies for A New Career-Best Finish at Kansas
Denny Hamlin

Leads the Most Laps at Kansas but Misses Out on Victory
Christopher Bell

Falls Out of Contention for Kansas Victory on Final Restart
Mike Malott

Scores Third-Round TKO Win
Gilbert Burns

Retires After UFC Winnipeg Loss
Charles Jourdain

Extends Winning Streak
Kyler Phillips

Drops Decision At UFC Winnipeg
Mandel Nallo

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss In His UFC Debut
Jai Herbert

Scores First-Round TKO Win
Karine Silva

Gets Dominated at UFC Winnipeg
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Dominates Karine Silva
Kyle Larson

Should not be Underestimated for the Win at Kansas
Denny Hamlin

Can Denny Hamlin Dominate at Kansas Again?
NASCAR

Christoper Bell Should Contend for First Win at Kansas
Tyler Reddick

Fastest in Practice and Qualifying for Kansas Race
Ryan Blaney

Could Score another Top-10 Finish at Kansas
Ty Gibbs

Poised to Continue Hot Streak at Kansas
Chris Buescher

Always Consistent, Has Speed Heading Into Kansas
William Byron

is A Solid DFS Option for Kansas Lineups
Carson Hocevar

Poised for Career-Best Run at Kansas
Chase Briscoe

Is Chase Briscoe Worth Rostering for DFS at Kansas?
Chase Elliott

Is A Favorable DFS Option for Kansas Lineups
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano be Considered Playable In DFS This Week at Kansas?
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace is A Favorable Driver to Consider for Kansas Lineups
Ross Chastain

Is Ross Chastain A Worthy DFS Option for Kansas?
Brad Keselowski

Could Brad Keselowski be A Sneaky DFS Option for Kansas?
Daniel Suarez

Should DFS Managers Roster Daniel Suarez at Kansas?
Mike Malott

A Favorite At UFC Winnipeg
Gilbert Burns

Set For UFC Winnipeg Main Event
Kyler Phillips

Set UFC Winnipeg Co-Main Event
Charles Jourdain

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Jai Herbert

An Underdog At UFC Winnipeg
Mandel Nallo

Set For His UFC Debut
Karine Silva

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Looks To Bounce Back
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF