👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Breakout Players at 2B, SS, and C and What It Means For 2016

Having some baseball withdrawal yet? Welcome to the club. That's why I'm starting a weekly series running through November looking at players at each position who experienced breakout campaigns. I'll also run another segment detailing the busts at each position.

This edition will focus on middle infielders and backstops. My selections will be influenced by their respective ADP (Average Draft Position) coming into 2015. That means while Mookie Betts had an excellent season ranking as the No. 3 second baseman, he will not be highlighted due to his high ADP (4th among 2B).

In addition to focusing on breakout players and what went right in 2015, I'll provide some context as to whether the production is sustainable or if we were witnessing a fluky season. This is going to be a lengthy piece as we tackle three positions (2B, SS, C) so grab a drink and some popcorn. Let's get started.

 

Breakout Players at 2B

Matt Duffy (SF - 2B, 3B, SS)

2015 Statistics: .295/.334/.428, 77 R, 12 HR, 77 RBI, 12 SB

Before I start, yes I realize Duffy made only seven starts at second base, but in most formats that's enough to retain eligibility. So deal with it.

Duffy is a great example of why you should pay more attention to a player's minor league development. An 18th round pick in the 2012 Amateur Draft, Duffy was fantastic in 2014 for AA-Richmond, compiling a .332/.398/.444 split in 417 PA. After being promoted to the big leagues in 2014 he failed to impress in 64 PA, which may have led to his poor ADP going into 2015.

Duffy was ranked 35th among 2B going into the 2015, behind the likes of Scooter Gennett, Javier Baez, Chris Owings, and Brad Miller. Duffy proved all the doubters wrong, posting a 4.9 WAR (2nd overall among 2B). He didn't lead qualified 2B in any category, but he was a balanced enough contributor in 5x5 formats to rank 8th overall.

So can Duffy repeat his 2015 success? I'm inclined to say no, although I still believe Duffy will be a useful fantasy commodity. His .336 BABIP was 5th among qualified 2B which may be a cause for concern for some, but I think it's sustainable. Check out his spray chart below.

Matt Duffy Spray Chart for 2015 (per FanGraphs)

Matt Duffy Spray Chart for 2015 (per FanGraphs)

Duffy has shown the ability to spread the ball to all fields along with solid plate discipline. His 29.9 O-Swing% (percentage of pitches swung at outside the strike zone) was 8th among qualified 2B and on par with his minor league numbers.

The stat that concerns me is the .366 average with RISP. That ranked second among hitters with at least 100 PA with RISP, trailing only Nolan Arenado (.373). Is that sustainable? Unlikely. But that doesn't mean the regression will be drastic. Batting in front of Buster Posey means plenty of fastballs. With a healthy Joe Panik and Hunter Pence, the top of the Giants lineup should be formidable once again in 2016. Look for Duffy to remain a top-10 2B option, just don't overpay for his services.

 

Logan Forsythe (TB - 1B, 2B)

2015 Statistics: .281/.359/.444, 69 R, 17 HR, 68 RBI, 9 SB

Here's another name that was on no one's radar coming into 2015. \Forsythe was given an everyday playing opportunity with Tampa Bay and made the most of it, setting career-highs in the respective categories above. His offensive 16.6 runs above average placed him 2nd among all 2B, while his .163 ISO ranked fourth among 2B, ahead of Robinson Cano, Jason Kipnis, and Neil Walker.

So what went right for Forsythe? The biggest adjustment was his ability to handle righties. Check out his splits vs RHP from 2014 to 2015.

Forsythe RvR

Logan Forsythe - Splits vs RHP (2014-2015)

He improved in every facet against righties. The biggest takeaway is the improved bat discipline; a better walk rate means more pitches in hitter-friendly counts. Forsythe's .323 average when ahead in the count exemplifies that.

Can Forsythe translate this success over to 2016? That's hard to bet on. His .323 BABIP and .350 wOBA were both career highs, but he did adjust his plate approach by lifting his leg a bit higher and Rays hitting coach Derek Shelton was adamant with Forsythe about remaining consistent. Fantasy owners are likely to be as skeptical come draft time next year, so Forsythe should come at fair value. His 2016 projections currently have him as a .254 AVG, 13 HR, 61 RBI player. In the shallow pool that is second base, that's a top-10 option.

 

Breakout Players at SS

Carlos Correa (HOU - SS)

2015 Statistics: .279/.345/.512, 52 R, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 14 SB

Go ahead and read that stat line above. Now remind yourself that Carlos Correa is 21 years old. Talk about Dallas Keuchel and Jose Altuve all you want. Without Correa there is no way the Astros make the playoffs in 2015. After joining the team in June, Correa went on to lead all shortstops in HR (22), SLG (.512), wOBA (.365), wRC+ (133), and ISO (.233). And he didn't even eclipse 435 PA. To say the future is bright for Correa is an understatement. He's on pace to melt our faces.

It's almost impossible to find a flaw with Correa. He hits both righties and lefties effectively, and he has power to all fields. If there's one downside it's the home/road splits as he managed to hit .243 away from Minute Maid Park. Minute Maid is a more RHB-friendly environment, but I'm willing to chalk that up as a small sample size. It's definitely not enough to shy away from Correa come draft day.

His current 2016 projections according to Steamer are .275/.340/.458 with 83 R, 22 HR, 84 RBI, and 21 SB. The same amount of homers with an extra 200 AB? I don't think so. Look for Correa to reach 30 HR and become a sure-fire top 15 pick for years to come.

 

Xander Bogaerts (BOS - 3B, SS)

2015 Statistics: .320/.355/.421, 84 R, 7 HR, 81 RBI, 10 SB

Bogaerts wasn't technically a part of the Year of the Rookie but he definitely is included in the youth movement at shortstop. Just 23 years old, Bogaerts led all SS in runs, average, and on-base percentage while trailing only Brandon Crawford (84) in the RBI department. These numbers are quite a leap from his disastrous 2014 campaign (.240/.297/.362). So what changed?

He abandoned the pull-happy tendencies that plagued his 2014 season. His pull rate dropped to 33.8% (46.9% in '14) while going the other way 32.0% of the time (19.3% in '14). As a result his fly ball rate dived from 41.3% to 25.8% and his ground ball rate climbed to 52.7%. To top it all off, the strikeout rate was a career best, minors included.

His .372 BABIP was tops among all shortstops by a large margin (Troy Tulowitski, .331), a number Bogaerts will have difficulty maintaining. He did have 30 infield hits (1st among SS) but he isn't a blazing fast baserunner, leading me to believe regression is due. That isn't to say Bogaerts can't hit .300 again and be a useful fantasy SS. Just don't draft him anticipating a repeat of his .320 average.

Steamer has him projected at 76 R, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 7 SB and a .293/.343/.421 line. Bogaerts should start the year near the top of the Red Sox order. With potential rebound seasons from Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, I think he'll eclipse the projections in R/RBI numbers easily. Draft Bogaerts with confidence in 2016 after the big names are off the board.

 

Brandon Crawford (SF - SS)

2015 Statistics: .256/.321/.462, 65 R, 21 HR, 84 RBI, 6 SB

We all knew Crawford as an above-average defender and fringe fantasy option coming into 2015. He left the season as arguably the best fantasy shortstop in the National League. Crawford led all shortstops in RBI and was one behind Correa in the HR category, shattering preseason projections.

This was a big jump from 2014. He more than doubled his HR total from 2014 (10) and, as you may expect, saw his power (ISO) shoot up to .205 (.143 in '14). One of the big differences was Crawford's aggressiveness. He swung at pitches outside the strike zone 19.7% more often, a stat that sounds worrisome until you look into it further.

Here is Crawford's 2014 Heatmap.

Brandon Crawford Heatmap - 2014 (FanGraphs

Brandon Crawford Heatmap - 2014 (FanGraphs)

And here is 2015.

Brandon Crawford Heatmap - 2015 (FanGraphs)

Brandon Crawford Heatmap - 2015 (FanGraphs)

Crawford maintained the heat zones he inhabited before and expanded it to pitches below the middle of the plate. He still wasn't allowing pitches to beat him in on the hands while also displaying power to all fields. He had five opposite field home runs in 2015, in contrast to zero the year before.

Is Crawford a legitimate candidate for 20 HR again? Yes, I think he is. He battled through injuries in the second half and still managed to hit nine. But the homers are coming with an average below .250. Crawford managed to hit .256 due in large part to a fantastic May (.340 AVG). Take that month out and he hit .234. Let someone else overpay for Crawford in 2016 and try and find the next breakout shortstop (My vote: Addison Russell).

 

Breakout Players at C

Kyle Schwarber (CHC - C, OF)

2015 Statistics: .246/.355/.487, 52 R, 16 HR, 43 RBI, 3 SB

SCHWARBO! OK, got that out of my system. Nothing was more fun than celebrating a Schwarber homer run in 2015, and there numerous chances to do so. His 16 homers came in just 69 games, and in non-dynasty formats most owners got the power-hitting catcher for free. Finding a spot on the field became an issue when Miguel Montero returned and after watching Schwarber flail in left field in the NLCS, management must prioritize finding Schwarber a home. For us fantasy owners, all that matters is the C eligibility remains thanks to his 15 starts behind the plate.

With catcher being such a shallow spot in fantasy, Schwarber is going to be a hot fantasy commodity next year, and rightfully so. Ignore the fact his 16 HR was only 8th among catchers, unless you'll acknowledge he did so in 200 less AB. Do pay attention to the .241 ISO (1st) and the keen plate discipline (13.2 BB% - 1st). Schwarber is the only catcher with a legitimate shot to eclipse 30 HR. If the Cubs let him play everyday, then 40 homers are within reach. Add in the OBP bonus for 6x6 leagues, and we have a top 60 pick. You want to take Buster Posey first, go ahead, just don't be foolish and grab Carlos Santana over Schwarbo.

 

Stephen Vogt (OAK - C, 1B, OF)

2015 Statistics: .261/.341/.443, 58 R, 18 HR, 71 RBI, 0 SB

Like a fine wine, it pays to be patient. Except for us it's more about catchers (and closers). Vogt was seen as an OBP play in deep leagues on draft day and ended up as the No. 8 catcher in fantasy baseball. It was Vogt's first chance at an everyday role since entering baseball in 2012 and he made the most of it, setting career highs across the board.

One of the biggest improvements was the walk rate. His 11.0% BB rate was 2nd among catchers (Schwarber) and more in line with his minor league track record.  The 18 home runs shouldn't come as a complete shock; he did hit nine in 287 AB in 2014. It should be noted 11 came in the first two months.

The case against Vogt replicating his 2015 success lies in his monthly splits. He hit .217 with only four homers in an injury-plagued second half. It's tough to trust Vogt to duplicate his numbers, and in 5x5 formats where his OBP is null and void, he's outside the top-10 for 2016.

 

J.T. Realmuto (MIA - C)

2015 Statistics: .259/.290/.406, 49 R, 10 HR, 47 RBI, 8 SB

Quick Quiz: Who led all catchers in steals in 2015? It was our next breakout subject, Realmuto. In his first full season of action (only 11 games in 2014) he became one of the few bright spots on the Miami Marlins.

Realmuto really came alive to end the year - he hit .338 with three HR, eight RBI, and two SB in the month of September. I try not get overly excited about players finishing strong but in the case of young players it can be a sign of positive adjustments. The plate discipline is still very poor here. His .290 OBP and 4.9% walk rate were both third worst among catchers last season, severely hindering his potential in 6x6 formats.

The biggest plus for Realmuto is the power/speed combo as he heads to 2016. I believe J.T. Realmuto will be the only catcher to post a 10/10 season. He had 18 steals in 2014 for the AA-Club and he should eclipse double digits in HR again. In standard formats, Realmuto will likely go after the top-10 catchers are off the board. But NL-Only owners should prioritize the Marlins catcher and let opponents overpay for the likes of Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Billy Horschel

Looks to Improve Season at Cognizant Classic
T.J. McConnell

Andrew Nembhard, T.J. McConnell Cleared to Play Tuesday
Kyle Pitts Sr.

Falcons Place Franchise Tag on Kyle Pitts Sr.
Jonathan Kuminga

Set to Make Hawks Debut on Tuesday
Ryan Kalkbrenner

Slated to Suit Up Tuesday
Joe Highsmith

Returns to Defend at Cognizant Classic
Quinshon Judkins

Out of Walking Boot, Will be Ready for Training Camp
Vince Williams Jr.

Out for Remainder of Season
Jaxson Hayes

Sidelined on Tuesday
Al Horford

De'Anthony Melton Will Play Against the Pelicans, Al Horford Ruled Out
Naz Reid

Listed as Available to Play Tuesday
Jalen Smith

Will Not Play Tuesday Against the Hornets
Coby White

Available To Make His Hornets' Debut Tuesday
Davion Mitchell

Upgraded to Probable for Tuesday
Jaylen Brown

Will Not Play Tuesday
Breece Hall

Jets Will Use Franchise Tag on Breece Hall if Extension isn't Reached
Trey Yesavage

to be on Strict Inning Limit This Season
Joel Dahmen

Needs Better Consistency Heading Into The Florida Swing
Blaine Crim

Suffers Oblique Strain
Matt Waldron

"Week-to-Week" After Undergoing Surgery
Daniel Berger

Looks to Improve Putting as PGA Tour Begins Its Florida Swing
Oneil Cruz

Looking to Improve Against Left-Handed Pitchers
Sebastian Walcott

has Internal-Brace Surgery, Out 5-6 Months
Ricky Tiedemann

to Back Off for a Week Due to Elbow Soreness
Kirk Cousins

Falcons Plan to Release Kirk Cousins
Zach Ertz

Plans to Return for 14th Season
Jameson Taillon

Can Be a Sneaky Late-Round Value
Matt Wallner

Ready for a Breakout Season?
Jaxson Hayes

Unlikely to Play Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga

Questionable Against Wizards
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Looking for Healthy 2026
Jae'Sean Tate

to Be Re-Evaluated in Two Weeks
Ernie Clement

Expected to Play a Major Role in Toronto
Ryan Kalkbrenner

Listed as Probable Against Bulls
Tristan Vukcevic

Could Miss Second Straight Game
Chris Sale

Signs Extension With Braves
De'Anthony Melton

Could Miss Game Vs. New Orleans
Vince Williams Jr.

Feared to Have Significant Knee Injury
Grayson Allen

Questionable to Face Celtics
Jalen Suggs

Could Miss Third Straight Game
Draymond Green

Iffy for Tuesday's Matchup
Davis Thompson

Struggling to Find Birdies as Florida Looms
Tom Kim

Not Quite Cutting It in 2026
Nicolai Hojgaard

Wants to Build Momentum from Scottsdale
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Returns After Extended Break for Florida Event
Carson Fulmer

Signs Minor-League Deal With Pirates
Brent Honeywell

Signs Minor-League Contract With Giants
Graham Pauley

Undergoes Imaging for Forearm Tightness
Trevor Story

a Strong Candidate to Hit Second in 2026
Bryan Abreu

Could Begin Season as the Closer
Justin Foscue

Exits Grapefruit League Game With Hamstring Tightness
Trevor Megill

had Offseason PRP Injections
Merrill Kelly

is Awaiting MRI Results
José Berríos

Jose Berrios Feels Fully Healthy Now
CFB

Gunner Rivers Follows His Father, Commits To North Carolina State
Will Zalatoris

Set to Make Tournament Debut at Cognizant Classic
Linus Ullmark

Available for Senators
Rasmus Hojgaard

Trending Up at the Cognizant Classic
Ryan Reaves

Sharks Activate Ryan Reaves From Injured Reserve
Charlie Lindgren

Activated From Injured Reserve Monday
Josh Norris

Cleared to Return Wednesday
Max McGreevy

Will Need to Improve on the Greens to Compete
Rico Hoey

Returns to Cognizant Classic
Austin Eckroat

Looks to Bounce Back at Cognizant Classic
Aaron Rai

Bounces Back After Rough Start to 2026 Season
Shane Lowry

Continues Playing Well Heading to Cognizant Classic
Max Homa

Has Opportunity to Continue Building Momentum at the Cognizant Classic
Ryan Gerard

Strong Approach Play Behind his Hot Start in 2026
Luke Clanton

Making Fourth Start of 2026 at Cognizant Classic
Kevin Lankinen

Unlikely to Play Wednesday
Josh Morrissey

to Miss Start of Road Trip
Mikko Rantanen

Expected to Miss Time
Jared Jones

Aiming to be Ready in Late May
Andrew Putnam

Looks to Jumpstart His Season at Cognizant Classic
Adam Scott

Looks For Continued Success at PGA National
Anthony Hernandez

Suffers Third-Round TKO Loss
Sean Strickland

Gets Back In The Win Column
Kyle Pitts Sr.

Falcons Planning to Use Franchise Tag on Kyle Pitts Sr.
Geoff Neal

Suffers Back-To-Back Knockout Losses
Uros Medic

Shines At UFC Houston
Dan Ige

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Melquizael Costa

Extends His Win Streak To Six
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Falls Short of Victory at EchoPark Speedway
Carson Hocevar

Rallies to Fourth At EchoPark Speedway After Early Struggles
Ross Chastain

Finishes Third At EchoPark Speedway
Chase Briscoe

Scores First Career Top-Five Finish at EchoPark Speedway
Tyler Reddick

Nabs His Second Win of the Season At EchoPark Speedway
Joey Logano

Will Be Popular DFS Pick at EchoPark Speedway
Tyler Reddick

on Pole After Qualifying Rained Out at EchoPark Speedway
Chase Elliott

Could Chase Elliott Be Worth Rostering At EchoPark Speedway?
Ryan Blaney

Is Ryan Blaney Worth Rostering for DFS at EchoPark Speedway?
William Byron

Is William Byron Worth Rostering for DFS at EchoPark Speedway?
Rondale Moore

Passes Away
Denny Hamlin

Is Worth Consideration for EchoPark Speedway DFS Lineups
Brad Keselowski

Is A Tournament Option for DFS At EchoPark Speedway
NASCAR

Is Bubba Wallace Rosterable In DFS At EchoPark Speedway?
Austin Cindric

Should DFS Managers Roster Austin Cindric at EchoPark Speedway?
Ross Chastain

Is Ross Chastain A Sneaky DFS Option for EchoPark Speedway?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Worth Rostering for DFS at EchoPark Speedway?
Alex Bowman

Will Start Towards the Rear At EchoPark Speedway
Javonte Williams

Cowboys Sign Javonte Williams to Three-Year, $24 Million Extension
Joel Armia

Wraps Up Olympics With Three-Point Performance
Daniil Tarasov

Available for Panthers
Evan Rodrigues

Set to Return Next Week
Aaron Ekblad

Expected to Play Thursday
Pavel Zacha

Cleared for Action
VAN

Jonathan Lekkerimaki Needs Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery
Mikko Rantanen

Misses Bronze-Medal Game With Lower-Body Injury
Blake Coleman

Activated From Injured Reserve
Matt Rempe

Heading to Injured Reserve After Second Thumb Procedure
Sidney Crosby

a Game-Time Call for Olympic Final
Josh Morrissey

Won't Play Sunday
Filip Chytil

Out Indefinitely With Facial Fracture
Connor McDavid

Makes History With Another Multi-Point Outing
Tage Thompson

Expected to Play in Olympic Final
Travis Etienne Jr.

has "Legitimate Interest" in Joining Chiefs
Zach Charbonnet

Undergoes Knee Surgery on Friday
CFB

Curt Cignetti Agrees to New Deal With Indiana, Will Earn $13.2 Million Per Year
Anthony Hernandez

Set For UFC Houston Main Event
Sean Strickland

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Uros Medic

Set For UFC Houston Co-Main Event
Geoff Neal

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Melquizael Costa

A Favorite At UFC Houston
Dan Ige

An Underdog At UFC Houston
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF