High-Value Touches and Opportunities - Fantasy Football Underperformers, Overperformers (Week 8)

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly series High-Value Touches and Opportunities for Week 8 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Touchdowns can be fluky, but finding which players tend to garner the high-value touches and opportunities can lead to scoring chances. We'll look at the high-value touches and opportunities each week to identify potential over and underperformers. 

We'll want to monitor the high-value rushing opportunities for rushers and which pass-catchers garner targets close to the goal line. We want to chase players based on volume, efficiency, and high-value opportunities as a rusher and receiver. Teams lean on the run when they inch closer to the goal line, and a player's high-value opportunities hold weight. The context matters since sometimes there's noise when a pass-catcher garners targets inside the 10-yard line, but wasn't involved much on first reads or other situations. 

We'll focus on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who garner high-value opportunities as rushers and receivers. To define high-value, they're the rushing and receiving opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Reach out to me on X if you have any questions or thoughts.  

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High-Value Rushing Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

Tank Bigsby dominated on Sunday morning against the Patriots, with a whopping nine carries inside the 10 and scoring two touchdowns. With Travis Etienne Jr. out, Bigsby dominated the running back opportunities, mainly as a rusher. Bigsby accounted for 66.7 percent of the team's rush attempts, with a 5 percent target share on one target. D'Ernest Johnson had a 23.1 percent rush share and a 20 percent target share (four targets), showing he projects as the pass-catching option.

Tank Bigsby had a whopping 9 carries inside the 10-yard line in Week 7, scoring on 2. No other rusher had this many carries inside the ten.

Previous highs inside the 10:
✅Week 4: Tony Pollard & Chuba Hubbard with 5 (1 TD each)
✅Week 5: D'Andre Swift with 7 (1 TD)

Bigsby📈📈 pic.twitter.com/MfBipB0YXe

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) October 21, 2024

For context, Bigsby leads the team with 13 rushes inside the 10, accounting for 55.6 percent of the team's carries inside the five. Meanwhile, Etienne has six carries inside the 10, garnering 42.9 percent of the team's carries inside the five. Bigsby's Week 7 explosion contributed to his overtaking Etienne during the season.

Some could argue Bigsby's a potential sell after Week 7, but hold if you have a running back need since he possesses the underlying metrics to provide value via his rushing efficiency. Among rushers with 25 carries, Bigsby ranks 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt (MTF/Att), first in yards after contact (YACO/Att), and 11th in explosive rush percentage (Exp Run%). For context, Etienne ranks 37th in MTF/Att, 26th in YACO/Att, and 55th in the percentage explosive rushes out of 81 qualified rushers. 

The visual below shows the rushing leaders sorted by YACO/Att with a minimum of 25 carries.

The Chiefs and 49ers game involved defenses that made the game challenging for the opposing offenses. That's evident in Patrick Mahomes throwing two picks and Brock Purdy throwing three. Kareem Hunt had five carries inside the 10-yard line, scoring on two. Hunt's second touchdown came on a drive after Mecole Hardman had a 55-yard punt return, with the Chiefs already in 49ers territory. The Chiefs look comfortable leaning on Hunt, though the yardage efficiency remains an issue.

Unsurprisingly, Jalen Hurts (four) and Anthony Richardson (three) showed up among the leaders in rushers inside the 10. Hurts converted two of his four carries for touchdowns, with Richardson at zero. The Eagles leaned on the running game, evidenced by Saquon Barkley scoring on one of his three carries inside the 10 in Week 7 against the Giants. It's positive to see Barkley scoring touchdowns, though Hurts will eat into the running back's workload inside the 10. On the season, Barkley has 11 carries compared to Hurts at eight within the 10-yard line.

Jordan Mason was the only rusher with three or more carries in Week 7 to not score a touchdown. That's partly because Purdy scored on both rushes inside the 10, potentially taking away from Mason punching in those. Mason had a 58.3 percent rush share compared to Purdy's 33.3 percent. For context, Purdy had a 13.8 percent rush share in Weeks 1-6. It's more narrative-based, but Purdy could've attempted to do more via the ground game since it was hard to connect via the air.

Three other notables with three or more carries inside the 10 include Tyler Goodson, Richardson, and Najee Harris. The Dolphins and Colts game was ugly, especially via the passing game. Goodson and Richardson matched each other in carries (14), with Richardson having a slight edge in rushing yards (56 vs. 51). With Richardson healthy, we expect him to steal some rush attempts near the goal line, and Goodson overtook Trey Sermon in Week 7. However, Sermon was limited in practice with a knee injury. This could all be meaningless with Jonathan Taylor returning, but the Colts rushing game should be effective for them.

Harris had his second straight 100-yard rushing game, though it came on a season-high 21 carries. Though Harris led the team in rush share (58.3 percent) compared to Jaylen Warren at 33.3 percent, Warren had a more even snap share (51.5 percent). That's notable because in Weeks 1-6, Harris had a 58 percent snap share, with Warren at 38 percent and Cordarrelle Patterson at 17 percent. 

Harris converted one touchdown on his three attempts inside the 10, with Warren having two, yet zero touchdowns. If the Steelers find themselves in more of a negative game script, Warren will continue to earn more opportunities. They face the Giants in Week 8, with a bye week, then the Commanders and Ravens in Weeks 10 and 11. So the usage might be frustrating and inconsistent for Warren. The snap share might hint at buying low for Warren, but the lack of targets has been a concern and is partially related to Justin Fields being the quarterback. 

The visual below shows the season-long leaders in carries inside the 10.

Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry, Brian Robinson Jr., David Montgomery, Alvin Kamara, and Justin Fields scored five or more touchdowns inside the 10 among rushers with double-digit carries. Meanwhile, Mason, Bigsby, Zack Moss, and D'Andre Swift might have some touchdown regression in their favor if the usage maintains. However, we have more confidence in Mason and Bigsby in the short term, with Swift garnering the most reliability based on the team context and usage.

 

High-Value Receiving Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

Week 7 might've been the week of the rushers since only seven pass-catchers garnered more than one target inside the 10-yard line. Typically, offenses run near the goal line instead of pass, evidenced by the Week 7 numbers plus the season-long data. Without Amari Cooper, David Njoku had three targets inside the 10, all end-zone targets.

Before looking at the season-long leaders, the other notables include Brock Bowers and George Pickens. With Davante Adams officially off the team, Bowers set a career-high in targets (14) and receptions (10) while posting the second-most receiving yards of his rookie campaign. Bowers had an elite 38.1 percent first-read target share, ranking within the top 10 among pass-catchers in Week 7. We've already seen Bowers be a high-end to elite target earner at the position, making him one of the most consistent options with tons of upside.

The visual below shows the season-long leaders in targets inside the 10-yard line.

Pickens has six targets inside the 10 and scored on zero. Among receivers with five targets inside the 10, Pickens is the only one with zero touchdowns. Nico Collins, Gabe Davis, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored once on their targets inside the 10. Since we're dealing with small samples, the scoring chances could shift in Pickens' favor. However, Pickens possesses some juicy metrics.

Pickens ranks seventh in first-read target share (35.3 percent), ninth in yards per route run (2.66), and 13th in expected fantasy points per game among pass-catchers with 25 routes. That's a borderline WR1-type usage and production to buy high on, especially since the Steelers (surprisingly) rank sixth in pass rate over expected (6.5 percent).

 

Third- and Fourth-Down Opportunities

Bowers popping up among the leaders in third- and fourth-down opportunities doesn't surprise us, given the first-read targets and being the top Raiders pass-catcher.

With Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed injured, Cedrick Wilson Jr., and Bub Means tied with four targets on third and fourth downs. However, Mason Tipton led the team with nine targets, with an inefficient passing game led by Spencer Rattler facing a difficult Broncos defense. Means looked like the "better" option heading into Week 7, so maybe give it another week or two in deeper leagues.

The visual below shows the target leaders on third and fourth downs in Week 7.

There's mostly noise in Tyler Boyd, D.J. Turner, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine garnering four targets on third and fourth downs. Joe Burrow looked toward Tee Higgins on third and fourth downs four times, with Ja'Marr Chase at zero. The Browns defense brings pressure at the highest rate (42.5 percent), and Burrow and the Bengals offense struggled to move the ball consistently, converting two out of 13 third downs.

Now, let's examine the targets per route run leaders on third and fourth downs on the season, as seen below.

It's better to look at the raw target numbers per week since we're dealing with small samples after we filter for different situations. That said, we'll examine the targets per route run rate leaders on third and fourth downs to see if any interesting names pop up. Besides the high-end names, Josh Downs, Keenan Allen, and Colby Parkinson intrigue us.

Though it came with Joe Flacco and Richardson, Downs leads the Colts in first-read target share (32.1 percent), with Michael Pittman Jr. at 23.8 percent and Adonai Mitchell at 16.3 percent on the season. Downs averages 13.3 expected fantasy points per game (No. 27) compared to Pittman at 11.7 (No. 45) and Mitchell at 8.5 (No. 79) among receivers with 25 routes. That suggests Downs has the edge in usage and the first-read target in the passing game. However, it's a matter of when they pass, ranking 28th in pass rate over expected at -2.55 percent. 

Unfortunately, Richardson showed us the volatility of the Colts passing game, ranking last in Week 7 in completion rate over expected (CPOE) at -13.9 percent and third-worst off-target rate among quarterbacks with 10 dropbacks. On the season, Richardson ranks 45th in CPOE at -8.3 percent with the third-highest off-target percentage at 29.7 percent among 51 qualified quarterbacks. We already panicked about Pittman, and there are concerns about Downs and the Colts pass-catchers.

The Rams hardly needed to throw the ball in Week 7 against the Raiders, though the close score wouldn't indicate that. However, Parkinson's high target share on third and fourth downs was the second on the Rams behind Cooper Kupp. When comparing that to the first-read target shares, Parkinson tied for third on the team with Demarcus Robinson at 14.9 percent behind Tutu Atwell at 23.9 percent, not including Kupp. That suggests Parkinson serves as the checkdown option for Matthew Stafford on third and fourth downs, but Kupp should soak that up when he returns.  

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