RADIO
We saw several big breakouts in 2024, from Brent Rooker to Jack Flaherty to Seth Lugo—but those players at least got drafted in most leagues, if very late.
No, here we want to celebrate the true difference makers, the guys who came out of left field (not literally; we aren’t confined to just outfielders). Here we give kudos to the waiver wire wizards, the players we picked up in FAAB leagues who most changed our fantasy fortunes.
Let’s review the parameters: we are using ADP from the NFBC, 12-team league drafts completed between January and Opening Day, cross-checked with Fantasy Pros data for home leagues. So before you say “not in MY league,” keep in mind we are measuring draft status based on 360 players selected (12 teams x 30 rounds). The “final rank” is taken from the FanGraphs’ Player Rater for 12 teamers with 5x5 roto scoring.
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Jurickson Profar
ADP: 592
Final rank: 37
As the ADP indicates, Profar went essentially undrafted in the preseason, and no wonder as the former top prospect had disappointed through his age-30 season and was guaranteed nothing after signing with the Padres for one year, $1 million.
He proved to be one of the biggest surprises for both the Padres and fantasy owners, posting a .280/.380/.459 slash line with 24 HR, 10 SB, and 179 runs plus RBI. He slowed down a little in August (.196 BA/.689 OPS) but finished with a .818 OPS in September.
In fact, August was the only sub-.800 OPS month for Profar. You never considered dropping or even benching him; an incredible boon off the waiver wire.
Profar mentioned to the ESPN playoff broadcast that he came into camp this season “bigger and stronger” than ever, so there may be more to this rebirth than a single-season outlier. His value may be suppressed in 2025 too, as projections (and our memories) will pull down expectations based on his earlier performances.
Ryan Walker
ADP: 601
Final rank: 38
Walker was pegged for a middle relief role before the season, well behind Camilo Doval in the Giants’ bullpen pecking order. As a result was drafted after the likes of Aaron Slegers and Reymin Guduan in the rare cases he was drafted at all (no, those are not names I made up for an MLB The Show franchise).
Walker became the Giants' closer by early August and had one of the most dominant seasons by any pitcher—10 wins, 10 saves, 1.91 ERA (2.52 FIP), .85 WHIP, and 99 strikeouts over 80 innings—ranking as the second-best reliever and 15th best pitcher.
As the FIP and SIERA (2.45) indicate, he was not quite as good as the results, but he was still dang good! Although others had a higher K/9, Walker excelled at limiting walks (6%) and posted an elite 26% K-BB%. He also limited hard contact, with just 86.4 EV, .56 HR/9 allowed, and a 47% GB rate.
Bases loaded. No outs. No problem for Ryan Walker.
(#SFGiants x @peetscoffee) pic.twitter.com/n4JPoQSXr6
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) August 19, 2024
Walker is not even arbitration-eligible until 2026, so there’s no reason to think he won’t close for the Giants again in 2025 and cannot at least approximate this performance.
Ronel Blanco
ADP: 590
Final rank: 44
You’d be forgiven for thinking Blanco is an actual wizard or at least an apprentice who had sought a magic potion from an actual wizard. He was, after all, a 30-year-old converted reliever who had barely exceeded rookie eligibility. Forced into injury replacement starter duties, he spun a no-hitter in his first start of the season. Waiver wires short-circuited.
Blanco proved remarkably consistent too, allowing zero earned runs nine times, and more than three earned only five times. He only had one poor start. All told he gave us 13 wins with a 2.80 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 166 strikeouts over 167.1 innings.
The underlying metrics suggest Blanco was more illusionist than a magician: he held relatively high walk (10%) and strand rates (84%) while maintaining a preternaturally low .220 BABIP, which added up to a 4.15 FIP and 3.97 xERA. He didn’t have an outlier ground ball rate nor did he induce super weak contact.
Those are issues for next year (hint: no one will rank Blanco as he finished: as a top-15 starter). For now let’s just appreciate that Blanco, whether by actual magic or small sample trickery, gave us the season’s most valuable waiver wire starting pitcher performance.
Brenton Doyle
ADP: 479
Final rank: 47
No one saw this coming. Doyle hit .203 with a 35% strikeout rate in 2023 as a rookie; if he’d qualified, his 45 wRC+ would have easily been the worst in MLB. He had major contact and whiff issues even as a prospect—scouts gave him a 30 future grade hit tool. Doyle always had superlative speed and flashed some power in the minors, but no one was drafting a .200 batting average for fantasy.
So what happened? Doyle made extensive changes to his batting stance in the offseason and soared right away, hitting .276 with 15 home runs and 20 steals in the first half, which made him an All-Star and the fifth-best outfielder in fantasy. Doyle raised his contact rates from the basement to above average (87% z-contact), cut the strikeouts to a manageable 25%, and bumped the barrel rate to 10.5%.
"It's all starting to come together. Late bloomer is blooming in Colorado."
Brenton Doyle has 9 HR and a 1.442 OPS in the month of July! 💥@markdero7 | @Rockies | #MLBCentral pic.twitter.com/IZBWnhM8we
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 22, 2024
Doyle was slowed by a spate of leg injuries from June to September (patella, calf, knee), hitting just .234 in the second half, but he still popped eight homers with 10 steals in that time. All told Doyle was one of just 10 players to go 20/30. His 2025 ADP will be interesting to track, but the changes he made support the results at the plate.
Kirby Yates
ADP: 577
Final rank: 59
As good as Walker was, Yates was even better in some respects. He posted seven wins, 33 saves, a 1.17 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 85 strikeouts in 61 1/3 innings—with just ONE blown save.
Signed by the Rangers in December, Yates wasn’t initially pegged to be the closer; Texas already had Jose Leclerc, who had closed games in the World Series, and they had also added David Robertson. However, Leclerc struggled early, and by late April Yates was locked in as the closer.
He pitched brilliantly, ranking second among closers in ERA, third in WHIP, and fourth in strikeout rate (36%). The performance wasn’t out of the blue; Yates had a 3.28 ERA with 80 strikeouts in 60 1/3 innings for Atlanta in 2023.
His draft cost was all about role uncertainty. Yates is a free agent and will be 38 entering the next Opening Day, but his velocity, command and Stuff+ readings held steady all season. We would be surprised if he isn’t closing somewhere.
Lawrence Butler
ADP: 576
Final rank: 126
As with Profar and Doyle, Butler was not even drafted in any of the thousands of Yahoo, CBS, or ESPN leagues. For good reason: coming into the season Butler was a toolsy prospect who didn’t hit well during his first taste of the majors in 2023, on an offense many projected to be bottom-five.
He did little to inspire confidence early, batting .179 with a 31% strikeout rate, which relegated him to the minors for a month—though he was hitting the ball hard even then. Butler was called back up in June, made a couple of mechanical tweaks, and took off.
After July 1 he slashed .302/.346/.597 with 20 dingers and 14 steals in 73 games, good for a 167 wRC+, which ranked ninth among qualified hitters in that time (between Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor). We are quite high on Butler for 2025 and expect the small sample of excellence will keep his cost reasonable.
#Athletics Lawrence Butler since 7/1 has been so good
- 19HR and 10SB (0 CS)
- .326/.364/.679
- .434 wOBA
- 191 wRC+
- NOT BABIP fueled (.325)
- .353 ISO
- 15.6% barrel%
- 51.4% hard hit%
- string chase rate and SwStr rateReally like what we’re seeingpic.twitter.com/1jmJy76cCs
— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) September 9, 2024
Others receiving votes (ADP): Jackson Merrill (562, pre-March); Reynaldo Lopez (352); Tyler Holton (744); Spencer Arrighetti (599)
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