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Doesn't March feel like forever ago? Now that the 2024 fantasy baseball season is in the books, some of what we were thinking seems ridiculous in hindsight.
I joined several of my Rotoballer colleagues in making bold predictions before the 2024 campaign, and now it's time to see how they panned out. Spoiler alert: there were some good ones and a few that we're all better off forgetting.
Without further ado, let's get started!
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Rick Lucks' 10 Bold Predictions for 2024
1. Shota Imanaga Outearns Yoshinobu Yamamoto
I forgot to specify what "outearns" means in the context of this prediction, but fortunately, it doesn't matter. Yamamoto was good when on the mound, going 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA across 90 innings pitched. His 28.5% K% and 6% BB% also helped him post strong ERA estimators (2.86 xFIP, 3.44 xERA).
Using the default FanGraphs rankings, here's how he fared:
A right shoulder injury dampened Yamamoto's overall value, but he otherwise performed as expected.
Imanaga pitched a full season, going 15-3 with a 2.91 ERA over 173 1/3 IP. His 25.1% K% was just sy of Yamamoto, while his 4% BB% was better. Imanaga also posted strong ERA estimators including a 3.62 xFIP and 3.46 xERA).
Here are his rankings:
Both performed similarly on a rate basis, but Imanaga's volume was more than enough to give him the clear edge in fantasy value.
Verdict: WIN
2. Yuki Matsui Records at Least 30 Saves
Matsui wasn't bad, going 4-2 with a 3.73 ERA and 2.90 xERA in 62 2/3 IP. His 26.8% K% was solid, though his 10.8% BB% was a little high.
Sadly, the Padres never considered Matsui as a late-inning option. This author knew this pick was a bust when San Diego used him in the sixth inning of the Korean series on March 20.
Verdict: LOSS
3. Tyler O'Neill Goes 25/25 with at Least a .260 Batting Average
O'Neill slashed .241/.336/.511 with 31 HR and four steals in 473 PAs, meaning he fell well short of the average and SB totals this prediction was built on. Technically, it's another loss.
However, O'Neill posted an overall rank of 129 against a FantasyPros ADP of 227.4, making him a profitable selection even if the shape of his production wasn't what was expected.
Verdict: LOSS
4. Elly De La Cruz Records More PAs for Louisville than Cincinnati
De La Cruz hit .259/.339/.471 with 25 HR and 67 SB in 696 PAs, filling up the stat sheet for fantasy managers. The only thing he didn't contribute was PAs in Louisville, of which he logged zero. Matt McLain's injury and Noelvi Marte's suspension made this prediction less likely to hit, though his performance would've made it a bust anyway.
Verdict: LOSS
5. Blake Snell Posts an ERA of 5.00 or Higher
Snell went 5-3 with a 3.12 ERA in 104 IP, so this prediction was wrong. However, avoiding Snell on draft day was correct with the benefit of hindsight.
Snell was awful in the first half, posting a 6.31 ERA in 35 2/3 IP. He more than righted the ship in the second half, pitching to a 1.45 ERA in 68 1/3 IP. Most of his fantasy managers probably dropped him before he started producing though, and the start was so bad they may have fallen out of contention if they held him.
Snell's 68.8 ADP lost a ton of value with his overall ranking of 140th. Still a miss, but you dodged a bullet if you avoided him.
Verdict: LOSS
6. Ryan Noda Posts an OBP of at Least .400
Noda came close to realizing this prediction, slashing .224/.391/.486 with 22 HR in 447 PAs... at Triple-A. He was horrific in Oakland, slashing just .137/.255/.211 in 111 PAs.
Noda's failure resulted from a crazy IFFB% surge that saw him go from a 4.3% rate in 2023 to a 28.6% rate in 2024. Nobody could've seen that coming. He had a 16.7% IFFB% at Triple-A last year, which isn't too bad once you halve it for an MLB equivalent.
Don't be surprised to see Noda's name on deep sleeper lists next season.
Verdict: LOSS
7. Rhys Hoskins Slugs at Least 40 Homers
Hoskins slugged a disappointing 26 HR in 517 PAs to go with a pedestrian .214/.303/.419 line. He still did the Hoskins thing of hitting tons of flies (48.4% FB%) while seeing an above-average amount of them clear the fences (17.6% HR/FB).
Unfortunately, Hoskins posted a career-worst 28.8% K%. With fewer balls in play, it didn't matter that a healthy number of his batted balls were flies that cleared the fence.
Verdict: LOSS
8. Dairon Blanco Steals at Least 40 Bases
Blanco hit .258/.308/.392 in 132 PAs last season. He didn't quite reach the 40-steal threshold, but he swiped 31 on 38 attempts. It's another loss, but fantasy managers in deep leagues could've done much worse if they needed steals from a part-time player.
Verdict: LOSS
9. Seth Lugo Posts an ERA of 3.50 or Better
Lugo was one of the best fantasy investments in 2024, going 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA in 206 1/3 IP for the Royals. His ERA estimators weren't quite as good with a 3.72 xERA and 3.83 xFIP, but this author expected that.
Lugo had two problems in 2023: homers and average defensive support. The Royals solved both issues as Kauffman Stadium suppresses HR while their defense is among the best in the league.
Sure enough, Lugo's BABIP against fell from .298 in 2023 to .277 this year while his HR/FB declined from 13.3% to 7.4%. Lugo still has two years on his Kansas City contract, so the good times should keep rolling.
Verdict: WIN
10. The Kansas City Royals Win the AL Central
So close! Kansas City was tied with Cleveland in mid-September and owned the tiebreaker, but a late-season swoon saw them fall to WC2 in the American League. They made the postseason when many expected 90+ losses, so this feels like a win.
Infuriatingly, this was even closer to a win than that. Check out the AL Central standings by Pythagorean win percentage and BaseRuns:
Kansas City has the highest winning percentage by both metrics, with Cleveland barely above .500 by BaseRuns. I should've said the Royals would be the best team in the division, but I didn't.
Verdict: LOSS
Our overall record is 2-8, suggesting these predictions were quite bold. Both wins could've won leagues. At the same time, the "spirit" of the prediction was right for the two wins plus O'Neill, Snell, the Royals, and maybe Blanco. Not too bad!
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