RADIO
Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 23, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 23 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season. We're staying in the central this week, specifically the AL Central. First, we'll break down the recent hot start from Zebby Matthews in Minnesota. Then, we'll deep dive into Detroit righty Keider Montero's recent run on the mound.
For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of August 26.
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Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins – 20% Rostered
2024 Stats (AAA): 19 IP, 5.68 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 27.2% K-BB%
8/25 vs. STL: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K
Matthews had the best start of his young career on Sunday, holding the Cardinals to just one run over five innings while striking out seven. Matthews has been solid in his first three starts, going exactly five innings each time and never allowing more than two runs.
With early-season rotation stalwarts Chris Paddack and Joe Ryan on the IL, Matthews certainly has the opportunity for a long-term role as a starter for the Twins. Is Matthews the late season spark your team needs, or should we leave him on waivers?
Originally an eighth-round pick by the Twins back in 2022, Daniel Zebulon Matthews worked his way up through the minors to become a notable prospect in the Twins system. He was ranked as Minnesota’s sixth-best prospect by FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline coming into the season, and Matthews became a prospect thanks to his dominant K:BB ratios in the minor leagues.
Matthews has shown to be a whiz at preventing walks and throwing strikes, and that’s how he reached the majors. Matthews works with a five-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, cutter, changeup, and curveball. Matthews may throw five pitches, but he really leans on three of them, the slider, cutter, and four-seam fastball.
Matthews used his fastball heavily in this start, throwing it 48% of the time. Averaging 94.8 mph on the gun, Matthews boasts slightly above-average velocity. He also has slightly above-average spin at 2,224 RPM and slightly above-average vertical movement with the pitch. Noticing a theme?
Matthews’ fastball shapes up to be above average in all measurables, and batters have really struggled to square the pitch up thus far. Opponents are batting just .100 with a .150 SLG and .134 wOBA. The expected stats suggest that Matthews has overperformed with the pitch, but he still has a strong .187 xBA, .385 xSLG, and .260 xwOBA.
How does Matthews do it? Flyballs, and lots of ‘em. Matthews has a 50% flyball rate and a 25% infield flyball rate with his four-seamer this season. With an average launch angle against of 20-degrees, batters have really elevated this pitch.
That’s not a bad approach to take, especially for a pitcher with excellent control like Matthews, but Matthews is going to experience regression with this fastball. He may have a 50% flyball rate, but he also has a bloated 25% line drive rate with the pitch (league average is 19.7%) and a blistering 93.4 mph average exit velocity against.
Batters are hitting a lot of hard line drives off Matthews’ fastball, yet he somehow has a .125 BABIP against the pitch. It’s only been three starts so we’re dealing with the minute details of a small sample size, and I’m not suggesting that he’s about to be shelled out there, but fantasy managers should be concerned about the sustainability of his current fastball performance.
Matthews’ best pitch in this start was his slider, which earned him seven whiffs on 19 pitches. An 86.1 mph offering, Matthews’ slider acts as a softer, loopier version of his cutter, moving down and away from right-handed hitters. Here’s an example from this start.
Not Chris Sale, but not a bad slider either. Matthews has been dominant with the pitch thus far, boasting a 22.4% swinging strike rate and a 46.7% chase rate with his slider. Those numbers are likely not sustainable, but the performance of his slider thus far shows us that Matthews may be able to replicate his minor league strikeout numbers in the majors.
It’s unlikely that he will put up a 30%+ strikeout rate like in the minors, but Matthews could certainly maintain a strikeout rate between 20-25% in the majors. Pair that with his command and you’ve got an interesting young arm.
Speaking of command, you’d be hard-pressed to find someone better than our pal Zebulon. Matthews has pitched 112 innings across all levels this season and has issued a grand total of nine walks. There are current starting pitchers who could issue that many walks in two starts and no one would blink an eye.
Matthews' control is incredible, and he could be especially valuable in Roto leagues where one is trying to make up ground in WHIP, which can be really hard to do at this point in the season. I am a fan of pitchers who possess extreme skills, and Matthews has extreme control.
Verdict:
While the stuff itself wouldn’t blow anyone away, Matthews pairs a trio of plus pitches in his fastball, slider, and cutter with exceptional control. It will likely be hard for Matthews to replicate his minor league strikeout numbers, but he should have no problem limiting walks, which limits baserunners, which reduces WHIP and ERA.
He also pitches for a contending team and will continue to be stretched out, so perhaps he carries some win potential as well. Matthews reminds me of the Seattle pitching philosophy, which is command and control come first. He’s definitely worth the add in standard mixed leagues.
Keider Montero, Detroit Tigers – 7% Rostered
2024 Stats (prior to this start): 59.2 IP, 5.28 ERA, 5.25 FIP, 12% K-BB%
8/23 @ CWS: 5 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
Montero turned in another solid performance on Friday, holding the White Sox to two runs over five innings in the no-decision. It was a tough no-decision for Montero as he was seeking his fourth-straight victory after beginning his career at 1-5. Montero has been pitching better as of late, with a 3.00 ERA over his last four starts. Has Montero turned a corner into fantasy relevance, or is this Tiger just a kitty cat?
Originally an international free agent signed by Detroit back in 2016, Montero toiled away for seven years in the minor leagues before getting his shot this season. He’s still quite young at 24, but he’s been around the Tigers’ system for a while. Despite putting in plenty of time, Montero wasn’t much of a prospect coming up. He was ranked as Detroit’s 22nd-best prospect by FanGraphs heading into the 2024 season.
Montero works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, knuckle curve, changeup, and sinker. It was mostly about the fastball and slider in this one, as Montero threw both pitches a combined 70% of the time.
Let’s start with Montero’s fastball, which boasts above-average velocity with a 95 mph average. Montero doesn’t have the same spin as Matthews with 2,155 RPM and has below-average movement, meaning his fastball will struggle to live in the zone compared to Matthews. Opponents are hitting it hard too, with a .269 AVG, .472 SLG, and .366 wOBA.
While those numbers aren’t great, what makes them even worse are his expected stats. Montero has a .335 xBA, .535 xSLG, and .414 xwOBA against his fastball this season. Things have gotten better for Montero over his hot four-start stretch. Batters are hitting .250 with zero extra-base hits against his fastball over his last four starts. Montero has been throwing the pitch up more during his hot streak. Here’s a look at his fastball heatmap over his last four starts.
And prior to the hot streak.
He’s throwing it up higher a lot more and avoiding the zone, which is exactly what Montero needs to do. He can’t hang in the zone, but he can take his 95 mph heat and challenge batters up with the pitch. His fastball isn’t special, but he’s doing the right thing with it.
Montero is doing some interesting things with his fastball, but it’s not his best pitch. That honor would go to his slider, which Montero threw 30% of the time in this start. Batters have really struggled against Montero’s slider this season, batting a mere .207 with a .341 SLG and .255 wOBA. Even better, the expected stats suggest that Montero has earned these results. He currently has a .193 xBA, .320 xSLG, and .241 xwOBA with the pitch.
The strikeout numbers aren’t great with a 12.8% swinging strike rate and a 28.8% chase rate, but strikeouts aren’t Montero’s strong suit. Oddly, Montero has used his slider less often during his hot streak. He was throwing it 32.84% of the time prior to the streak but is only throwing it 24.06% of the time over his last four starts. It’s his best pitch, but he’s using it less frequently and getting better results. What gives?
Well, Montero’s recent success may be owed to his sinker, a pitch he threw just 2.93% of the time prior to the hot streak, but 9.86% of the time over his last four starts. Batters are hitting .300 off the pitch, but Montero has surrendered zero extra-base hits with the sinker and the pitch has a 0-degree average launch angle against.
The 98.2 mph average exit velocity and .393 xwOBA have me a little nervous, but this could be a positive development for Montero. He has really struggled with home runs this season and is currently sporting a 1.67 HR/9, but he has allowed just one home run over his last four starts and has allowed zero over his last three. Home runs weren’t a big problem for Montero prior to reaching the big leagues, so perhaps he’s figuring out how to keep the ball in the yard at the major league level.
Verdict:
Montero does have a nice recent stretch under his belt and is doing some small things better during the hot streak, but it isn’t enough to move the needle for this writer. His four-seam fastball has above average heat but below average spin and movement, and it’s proven too hittable thus far. Batters have really struggled with his slider, but Montero can’t put up the big sexy strikeout numbers we love.
He has shown some promise with increased sinker usage, but that hardly catapults him into fantasy relevance. Lastly, this start wasn't even that good considering the opponent. Two runs over five innings should be the bare minimum against the White Sox, and Montero averaged less than a strikeout per inning. If this is his peak I don’t want to be around for the valley.
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