Five Undervalued Fantasy Football Tight Ends For 2024

August 27, 2024

Who are five tight ends that might be undervalued in fantasy football? Corbin Young examines several tight-end profiles and sees who might be overlooked for 2024.

Since most fantasy formats play with one tight end, finding value is hard. This is especially true in a tight-end premium format like FFPC, where the position is prioritized based on the additional scoring bonus for tight-end receptions. In the 2024 fantasy football landscape, we have some high-end options in the first two rounds, then six more tight ends going before pick 75. For this article, we'll be looking at the middle to late-round tight-end options that could be undervalued.

Last season may have been an outlier, with five tight ends garnering 120 targets or more and seven with 100 or higher. In 2022, two tight ends reached 120+ targets and four were over the century mark. The 2021 season looked similar to 2022, with two over 120 targets and six tight ends reaching 100 or more.

We'll discuss five undervalued tight ends, with two on the same team who have a wide difference in ADP. Three of these offenses will have different offensive coordinators and coaching staffs likely impacting the team's success and involvement at the tight end position. It's a beefy data-packed session finding undervalued tight ends, so let's dive in below!

Pat Freiermuth, TE - Pittsburgh Steelers

91.9 FFPC ADP, TE13

When looking outside the top 10 tight ends in ADP, we can't smash Freiermuth quickly enough. We've written about Freiermuth previously, and won't belabor the point. When Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith was the head coach of the Falcons, they ranked first (2023), fifth (2022), and third (2021) in tight end target share.

Before 2023, Kyle Pitts garnered elite target shares at 20 percent (No. 6) in 2021 and 27 percent (No. 1) in 2022, which fell to 18 percent (No. 13) in 2023.

With Smith as the new Steelers offensive coordinator, it should bode well for Freiermuth to soak up receiving opportunities as the second-best option behind George Pickens. That's especially true with Diontae Johnson gone, opening the door for Freiermuth to reach a career-high in raw targets and target share.

One concern involves the passing volume because the Falcons ranked 29th in pass rate, with the Steelers at 28th in 2023.

Freiermuth fits the mold of Evan Engram of last season, where he could push for the positional league in targets while going in the middle rounds of fantasy football drafts. That's what makes him undervalued going right outside the top 12 at the position given the offensive coordinator's tendencies to target tight ends at a top-five rate over the past three seasons.

Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, TE - Green Bay Packers

Musgrave: 126.7 FFPC ADP, TE18

Kraft: 253.5 FFPC ADP, TE34

One challenge for Musgrave involves staying healthy. He played two games during his final season at Oregon State after a season-ending knee injury. Then, Musgrave missed six games in his rookie season due to an abdominal injury.

Musgrave saw five or more targets in four of 11 games. When Musgrave had five targets or more, he averaged 8.5 PPR/G compared to 5.9 PPR/G with fewer than five. Interestingly, Musgrave efficiently made big plays, though five targets should be a reasonable expectation for 2024.

Musgrave's underlying metrics indicate that he creates yards after the catch while garnering a downfield role. That's evident in Musgrave's 10th-highest air yards per target at 7.5 and 10th-most yards after the catch per reception (five) among qualified tight ends.

He posted the 18th-best Receiving Air Yard Conversion Ratio (RACR), meaning he converted a high rate of air yards into receiving production.

The Packers involved another tight end in Tucker Kraft, who soaked up opportunities late in the season. Kraft is an athletic and explosive player, evidenced by his 87th-percentile Speed Score and 84th-percentile Explosion Score. That's notable because Kraft produced when Musgrave missed time.

While we don't recommend drafting Kraft outside of deeper leagues, it's worth noting he played a ton from Weeks 12-18 while Musgrave was sidelined. Kraft averaged a 93 percent snap share with a 15 percent target share. From Weeks 12-18, Kraft finished second on the team in fantasy points only behind Jayden Reed.

The visual below shows the Packers pass-catchers from Weeks 12-18 in opportunities.

Interestingly, Kraft played more snaps without Musgrave healthy while Musgrave averaged a 71 percent snap share in Weeks 1-11. However, it may not be surprising because the Packers ran the fourth-highest rate of 12 personnel, meaning they might continue to mix in two tight ends on the field in 2024 unless one of them misses time.

The Packers targeted their receivers at the sixth-highest rate (65.4 percent). Meanwhile, the tight ends garnered a 17.8 percent target rate (No. 26).

That's slightly concerning for Musgrave since they tend to spread the ball around, meaning he'll need to be an efficient producer. With the Packers having all their offensive weapons and pass catchers returning in 2024 besides Aaron Jones, the offense should look similar.

From a fantasy standpoint, we want them to consolidate the target shares with zero pass-catchers averaging over an 18 percent target share, with six pass-catchers ranging from 12-18 percent.

That list includes Romeo Doubs at 17 percent, Reed at 18 percent, Musgrave at 13 percent, Dontayvion Wicks at 12 percent, Christian Watson at 18 percent, and Jones at 12 percent among players with 25 or more targets.

Assuming the Packers target their receivers at a high rate again in 2024, the opportunities might be limited between Musgrave and Kraft. Once we're looking at tight ends outside the top 15 in ADP, we want to look at who possesses upside, with a chance for a touchdown each week.

Usage aside, Musgrave and Kraft play on an above-average offense ascending in 2024 and offer you contingent upside for fantasy if either one of them should miss any time.

Juwan Johnson, TE - New Orleans Saints

189.3 FFPC ADP, TE27

When mining deep into the tight-end player pool, we want to identify pass-catchers that may be the third-best option based on ADP. That sometimes means we're looking at players on projected weaker offenses if they only have 1-2 reliable skill players ahead of them.

Johnson fits the mold being drafted behind Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, and Rashid Shaheed. Besides Olave and Kamara, Shaheed hasn't shown the ability to be a consistent target earner.

The visual below shows the season-long target shares and opportunities for their top offensive skill players.

While we're not projecting a significant step forward with Johnson, having his 14 percent (No. 19) target share increase by 2-3 percentage points is within the range of outcomes.

From a team level, the Saints had a balanced offense, tying for 16th in pass rate at 57 percent in 2023, up two percentage points from 55 percent in 2022 (No. 21). The Saints had the same offensive coordinator for 15 years.

However, they hired Klint Kubiak, who most notably coached under Kyle Shanahan last season, as the 49ers' passing game coordinator. Theoretically, that should bode well for the offense, especially when we compare the 49ers to the Saints in 2023.

Last season, the 49ers ranked 15th in routes and seventh in receiving yards per game when using motion before or during the snap. Meanwhile, the Saints ranked 29th in routes and 26th in receiving yards per game under the same motion conditions before or during the snap.

At a minimum, we should expect an increase in the use of motion, leading to a potentially more efficient offense in 2024 under Kubiak.

It's hard to discuss the Saints offense without discussing Taysom Hill, who may make the mention of Johnson irrelevant. Over the past three seasons, the top three Saints players in fantasy points include Kamara, Olave, and Hill.

There has been excitement around Hill's usage with the new offensive coordinator, making him a fun, yet frustrating player with his limited usage and high production as a QB/TE in some formats.

Like teams with mobile quarterbacks, it typically leads to a downgrade toward their pass catchers from a volume standpoint. If Hill plays more quarterback than expected, it hurts Johnson's value as a deep-league tight-end streamer. However, the projected value of Johnson feels closer to TE20 if there's a slight uptick in volume as we're projecting.

Johnson had foot surgery this offseason and his status for Week 1 is still in doubt. However, he was spotted at Saints practice last Friday out of a walking boot and catching passes from a JUGS machine. There is some optimism that Johnson will be ready for Week 1, but this is still an injury situation worth monitoring.

Ja'Tavion Sanders, TE - Carolina Panthers

259.6 FFPC ADP, TE35

Let's close out with a deep sleeper that's likely better as a watchlist player. The rookie out of Texas played alongside top rookies Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, Jonathon Brooks, and the next Puka Nacua - Jordan Whittington. We're half-joking here with the next Nacua, but Whittington put on a show in the Rams' first pre-season game, causing many to take note of him.

Sanders posted consistent production in his two seasons at Texas with over 600 receiving yards and 1.50 receiving yards per team pass attempt. His closest comps based on college production include Austin Hooper, Tyler Kroft, Colby Parkinson, Irv Smith, and Mark Andrews.

Besides Andrews, Hooper and Smith might be reasonable comparisons as streamers with some upside. Sanders showed mediocre to slightly above-average athleticism, with a 63rd percentile Speed Score, but hardly participated in the other explosion-related metrics. Sanders looks like a better athlete on film, so don't overlook his explosiveness and athleticism.

While it's not worth analyzing the Panthers' offense last season due to all the new changes, we know new head coach Dave Canales should upgrade their offense. However, there's a connection between Canales and some quarterbacks having their best seasons.

Geno Smith had a career-best adjusted yards per attempt at 7.7, passing yards, and touchdowns in 2022, with a minimum of 100 pass attempts in a season. In 2023, Baker Mayfield posted a career-high in passing yards and touchdowns, with the highest adjusted yards per attempt at 7.1 since 2020.

Canales was the QB coach with Geno Smith and the offensive coordinator with Baker Mayfield.

The visual below shows the rookie quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 since 2014, including their adjusted yards per attempt, passing fantasy points, rushing fantasy points, and overall fantasy points per game in their rookie season.

Meanwhile, Bryce Young had one of the worst AY/A in his rookie season at 5.02 among quarterbacks drafted in the top five picks. Like Jared Goff's brutal 4.26 AY/A in 2016, which jumped to 8.5 in Year 2 with the new coach at the time Sean McVay, Young should take a step forward with Canales and the added offensive weapons.

Several quarterbacks who struggled in Year 1 improved in Year 2 and that should give us some hope for Young.

Sanders was used mostly as an in-line tight end at Texas, running a route 64.2 percent of the time in 2023 and 62.3 percent in 2022. That might help him garner repetitions on the field if he can pass block and play in line with the Panthers. It would be especially notable because the Panthers ran the second-highest rate of 11 personnel, with the Buccaneers ranking eighth.

That might bode better for whoever the third receiver ends up being, with Xavier Legette and Sanders drafted as the team's third non-running back or quarterback. We've seen a mixed bag of Sanders' pass-blocking grades, so there's a chance the decline in 2023 might be a fluky one.

He struggled with pass blocking in 2023, ranking 62nd out of 101 players in PFF Pass Block Grade among tight ends with 25 targets. Sanders' PFF Pass Block Grade dropped from 37th in 2022 out of 103 players.

Sanders earned 18 of his 50 targets (36 percent) in the intermediate area of the field (10-19 yards), translating into the fourth-best yards per route run at 1.86, with the sixth-most yards after the catch per reception.

Though Young threw 40.6 percent of his passes at five yards or shorter, having a tight end like Sanders to eat up yardage in the intermediate area of the field should help him improve, as an accessory option behind Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen.

Since 2015, 54 tight ends have averaged 1.5 receiving yards per team pass attempt or higher in their college career out of 1,000 players. When we filter over the past few seasons since 2020, the list shrinks to 25 players. Besides Sanders making the list, several notable names, including Brock Bowers, Michael Mayer, Isaiah Likely, Greg Dulcich, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, Kyle Pitts, and Sam LaPorta showed up.

This doesn't mean Sanders automatically jumps into the high-end tight-end grouping for fantasy, but it shows he produced on a per-pass attempt basis in college.

Unless it's a deep league or best ball format, Sanders might not be draftable going past pick 250. However, we should remember Sanders because he'll likely become a tight-end streamer throughout the season since we're projecting better efficiency and volume for Young and the Panthers offense.

Sanders will surge up the tight-end depth chart quickly, so don't get caught sleeping on this undervalued rookie.

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