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This may be the year when tight ends are finally cool again. The position seems deeper than it's been in years, which is especially true at the top of the position where there are four to six players fantasy managers can argue for being the TE1 this season. We haven't had that kind of upper-tier talent in a long time. Regarding fantasy football, being "good" is just half the battle. The other part of the equation is the cost of acquisition. It's like anything in life. You may be looking at a brand new 2024 Ford F-150, but if the asking price is $250,000, you're not going to buy it despite the vehicle being brand new. Price matters.
For this article, we'll identify several tight ends whose ADP (average draft position) is too high and, because of that, are players fantasy managers should avoid this season. That doesn't mean they're "bad" players or won't be productive fantasy players, just that there are better options at their current costs. They're over-valued. There are five tight ends who fantasy managers should not be drafting this year at their current costs.
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Sam LaPorta: TE1, ADP 27
Ladies and gentlemen, we are jumping the boat here. I’m not saying LaPorta can’t finish as the TE1, but his ADP is outrageous. He’s being drafted 21 spots, almost two full rounds, ahead of Mark Andrews. Even though LaPorta finished with an 11.6 half-PPR PPG average, Andrews finished at 11.3. If we eliminate the game Andrews left early when he played just 11% of the snaps, Andrews's half-PPR PPG average jumps to 12.2. What are we doing here?
LaPorta didn’t finish in the top three among tight ends in targets, receptions, or yards. He did, however, finish with 10 touchdowns, four more than any other tight end. That’s how he finished as the TE1 last season. This leaves fantasy managers putting a lot of draft value in the touchdown bucket, which is often a dangerous proposition.
LaPorta finished tied for third in red zone targets with 24 and was tied for fifth in end zone targets with seven. In terms of expected touchdowns, PFF had him ranked fourth with 6.8. There’s no real way around it. He ran hot on touchdowns. He was fourth in targets, third in red zone targets, fifth in end zone targets, and fourth in expected touchdowns, but still finished first with 66% more touchdowns than second place.
Even more concerning for LaPorta’s ADP is that from Weeks 1-17, LaPorta finished as the TE5 with a 10.2 expected half-PPR PPG average. He was tied with Mark Andrews, whose expected PPG average would increase if we eliminated his injury week, where he played just 11% of the snaps, moving LaPorta down to TE6. LaPorta averaged 7.06, 5.06, and 52.3 yards per game last year. From 2021-2023, Andrews has averaged 7.78 targets, 5.35 receptions, and 65.5 yards per game.
While his positional ranking isn’t outrageous, his ADP is. He’s being selected ahead of Mike Evans, Isiah Pacheco, Rachaad White, James Cook, and every quarterback not named Josh Allen. Last year, Evans averaged 15.0 half-PPR PPG, White was 14.0, Pacheco was 13.7, and James Cook was 12.8. LaPorta was at 11.6. Bypassing on legit top 12 running backs like White and Pacheco, who are sure to outscore LaPorta, is certainly a choice, especially when you can wait two rounds and get Andrews, who outscored LaPorta in terms of PPG average.
Even ranking LaPorta ahead of Travis Kelce is highly questionable. Kelce averaged more targets, receptions, yards, red zone, and end zone targets per game than LaPorta. However, Kelce finished with just five touchdowns to LaPorta’s 10. If we do a little digging, we find that Kelce had 12 touchdowns in 2022, nine in 2021, and 11 in 2020. From 2020-2022, his touchdown rate was 7.4%. LaPorta’s was 8.3%. In 2023, Kelce’s touchdown rate dropped to 4.1%. What do you expect to happen in 2024?
LaPorta was fantastic as a rookie and will likely continue to improve. Based on his ADP, he would get much better if fantasy managers didn’t want to be disappointed at his current cost. Last year, 23 tight ends had at least 50 targets. LaPorta ranked:
- Ninth in yards per reception (10.3)
- 11th in catch percentage (71.7)
- Ninth in yards per target (7.4)
- Seventh in yards per game (52.3)
- 16th in yards after the catch per reception (4.2)
He also finished sixth in yards per route run at 1.78 and target share at 21.1%. None of these numbers are bad. Most of them are incredible for a rookie tight end. Don’t get this twisted. This is not a hit piece on LaPorta. LaPorta is amazing. This is a hit piece on the price. If you’re house shopping and you find two houses you like. You slightly prefer house A over house B, but house A is $20,000 more expensive; which house will you offer? Unless you're rich and money is irrelevant, you’re most likely placing an offer on house B. That’s the problem with LaPorta. He’s overpriced.
Who you rank as the TE1 becomes a lot less important once you realize the best strategy this year is to let someone else draft the first tight end
— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) July 3, 2024
I can see a world where Kelce, Andrews, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, and Kyle Pitts all finish ahead of LaPorta. Is it likely? Probably not, but it’s more likely than you might think. Pitts is available 30 spots after LaPorta. Pitts had more yards than LaPorta had as a rookie, and he wasn’t in a top-five offense like LaPorta was. The difference? Touchdowns. Pitts had one, and LaPorta had 10. Well, now Pitts has Cousins. Could Pitts go up to 6-8 touchdowns? Absolutely! Could LaPorta go down to 6-8 touchdowns? Yup!
George Kittle: TE7, ADP 71
There were 14 games last season where the CMC, Aiyuk, Samuel, and Kittle quartet played in at full health. In those 14 games, Kittle scored 132.8 half-PPR PPG, or roughly 9.48 PPG. His expected fantasy half-PPR PPG in those 14 games was 6.8 PPG. Kittle outperformed his expected PPG by 2.6 and 37 points in total. As you can imagine, the other three solidly outperformed their expected half-PPR total and PPG average. The difference, however, is that none of them were a clear fourth on the target hierarchy.
| Player | Target Share | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TDs |
| D. Samuel | 23.9% | 93 | 63 | 864 | 6 |
| B. Aiyuk | 22.2% | 86 | 64 | 1192 | 8 |
| C. McCaffrey | 19.3% | 75 | 62 | 528 | 5 |
| G. Kittle | 17.0% | 66 | 47 | 733 | 6 |
As you can see from the table above, Kittle finished fourth in target share, targets, and receptions. While he did tie for second in receiving touchdowns, it should be noted that Kittle had the lowest red-zone target share out of the four. He scored six touchdowns, but his expected touchdowns were just 3.6 because volume drives scoring.
From Weeks 1-17 last season, Kittle’s 9.48 half-PPR PPG average when the San Francisco quartet was healthy would have ranked as the TE8 compared to the TE5, where he ultimately finished. His 6.8 expected half-PPR PPG average would have ranked 20th.
Kittle is the only one of San Francisco’s primary five players whose ADP does not have much, if any, baked-in regression, depending on how you look at it. Samuel finished as the WR6, and he’s being drafted as the WR15. Aiyuk finished as the WR11, and he’s being drafted as the WR14. Purdy finished as the QB7, and he’s being drafted as the QB11. Kittle finished as the TE5 but scored like the TE8 across 14 games when all his teammates were healthy. He is being drafted as the TE7. He’s also the clear fourth option in the passing game. All that makes Kittle an easy sell at cost.
Kittle's place on this list is with Aiyuk still on the roster. If Aiuk were to be traded, that would open the target share and give Kittle more volume. That development would take Kittle off of this list, but as of right now, he's often the third, and sometimes, even the fourth man in the target hierarchy for the 49ers, and because of that, he's someone to be avoided right now.
Cole Kmet: TE15, ADP 126
Kmet and Dalton Schultz are two of the easiest tight end sells this offseason. What kind of target volume will Kmet get with D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, two receivers who finished first and 21st in targets per game? If it was only Moore and Allen, you could still argue Kmet would be a sell, but then they went and added Rome Odunze at No. 9 overall, who is regarded as an elite prospect and one of the better receiver prospects over the past few seasons.
To make matters worse, Chicago signed Gerald Everett, who quietly followed offensive coordinator Shane Waldron around most of his career. When Everett was drafted, Waldron was the tight end coach in 2017 with the Rams. When Waldron became the offensive coordinator for the Seahawks in 2021, guess who Seattle signed in free agency? Everett.
| 2023 | |||
| Player | Snap Share | Routes | Route % |
| Noah Fant | 54.6% | 324 | 56.3% |
| Colby Parkinson | 47.3% | 231 | 40.2% |
| Will Dissly | 36.1% | 168 | 31.2% |
| 2022 | |||
| Player | Snap Share | Routes | Route % |
| Noah Fant | 60.4% | 330 | 57.6% |
| Will Dissly | 52.0% | 231 | 45.0% |
| Colby Parkinson | 40.5% | 196 | 34.2% |
| 2021 | |||
| Player | Snap Share | Routes | Route % |
| Gerald Everett | 65.6% | 321 | 73.1% |
| Will Dissly | 51.6% | 173 | 39.1% |
| Colby Parkinson | 18.9% | 49 | 12.0% |
The table above shows how Waldron has divvied up Seattle's playing time and routes over the past three years. It's ugly, folks. Really ugly. Given his clear positive feelings toward Everett as a player, fantasy managers can feel confident he will play far more snaps than Kmet fantasy managers would like to see. Kmet is still guaranteed to be the TE1 for Chicago. There's no question about that. However, if Everett eats into his route share, even just a bit, especially with the increased target competition, it will spell bad news for Kmet and his fantasy value.
Kmet finished with 90 targets (ninth-most), 73 receptions (eighth-most), 719 yards (ninth-most), and six touchdowns (tied for second-most). However, it’s important to put some of those numbers in context. The Bears finished the 2023 season 27th in passing attempts, 27th in passing yards, and 23rd in passing touchdowns. They were 24th in completion percentage, eighth-highest interception rate, 24th in yards per pass attempt, and 25th in quarterback rating.
Their offense finished 18th in total points and 20th in total yards. They were a below-average offense and a bad passing offense. That context is important when looking at Kmet’s season. Despite this, here’s where Kmet ranked in some key metrics among tight ends with 40 or more targets:
- Third-Lowest Drop Rate (1.1%)
- Eighth-Highest Yard Per Target Average (8.0)
- 11th-Highest Target Share (19.3%)
- 12th-Highest Target Per Route Run Rate (21.6%)
- Eighth-Highest Yard Per Route Run Average (1.70)
- 10th-Highest Yards Per Team Pass Attempt Average (1.40)
- First in Contested Catch Rate (77.8%)
Kmet finished the 2023 season as the TE8 with an 8.7 half-PPR PPG average. He provided fantasy managers with 10 top-12 weekly performances, including three top-five finishes. He scored over 20 half-PPR points on two occasions. He scored 1.9 half-PPR points in Week 6, the week Fields was injured and left in the first half. He put up a goose egg with Bagent under center the following week. While he did well in Bagent's other three starts, these two weeks greatly hindered his PPG average.
Kmet is a talented tight end, and there's the possibility he will fend off Everett completely and retain his role from last season. However, even if that remains true, it's hard to see Kmet being a fantasy asset, given the team's upgrades at receiver. Pat Freiermuth is next to Kmet at TE16 with an ADP of 128. Fantasy managers are much better off drafting him, who will likely be Pittsburgh's No. 2 target-earner. Otherwise, drafting Luke Musgrave three rounds later seems like a better bet. Musgrave is in a similar target pinch as Kmet, but at least he's cheaper. For these reasons, Kmet is a sell.
Dalton Schultz: TE14, ADP 127
Last year, Schultz tied for a TE10 finish with an 8.2 half-PPR PPG average. Fantasy managers recognize, at least to some extent, that won’t be repeated, not with Stefon Diggs in town. However, fantasy managers are not concerned about Schultz enough. Not only was Diggs not on the team last year, but Nico Collins and Tank Dell missed eight games! Schultz is still being drafted far too high.
No team has had three players reach 100 targets since 2020. If no team has had 100 targets in the past three years, and there are three players ahead of Schultz on C.J. Stroud’s target hierarchy, how many targets will that leave for Schultz?
Fantasy managers should quickly and unequivocally prefer Pat Freiermuth to Schultz. They should also prefer Luke Musgrave, Taysom Hill, Hunter Henry, and even Tyler Conklin. The truth is, Schultz has never been this great talent. He’s prospered, fantasy-wise, because of his excellent environment. First, it was in Dallas, and then, it was in Houston last season, with the injury to Dell. That excellent environment no longer exists. Yes, Stroud is awesome. Yes, Houston will be a great offense with excellent passing volume. No, none of that will matter unless one of the top three receivers gets hurt.
Schultz had a 17.5% target share last season. It was 18.7% in 2022 when he was in Dallas competing with Michael Gallup and Noah Brown for No. 2 honors behind CeeDee Lamb. It was 16.4% in 2021 when Dallas had Lamb and Amari Cooper. That might be our closest example of what Houston has receiver-wise, but even then, Dallas would still be missing Houston’s version of Dell. We should expect Schultz’s target share to be 15% or lower.
If we expect Houston’s pass attempt per game average to increase to 36.5, a sizable margin, if we factor in roughly 6% for throwaways, a 15% target share would be 87 targets. Based on his career averages regarding catch percentage and yards per target, Schultz would finish with 60 catches and 617 yards. If we give him five touchdowns, that would be a 7.1 half-PPR PPG average. Last year, that would have been good for TE15.
That’s pretty much exactly in line with his current positional ranking. However, it leaves very little room, if any, for Schultz to outplay his current ADP. His target share could dip to 14%, considering the trio of receivers he’s playing with and the improved talent at running back. Due to that lack of upside, Schultz is best avoided at his current price. There are better options at tight end later that have more opportunity for a higher outcome.
Cade Otton: TE21, ADP 174
If there’s a good thing about Otton, he’s always on the field. He had a 95.9% snap share and ran 568 routes last year, both leading the way at tight ends. That’s just about where the positives end. Despite all that playing, Otton had very little to show for it. Let’s check out some of his stats from last season, courtesy of PlayerProfiler:
- 67 targets (21st)
- 47 receptions (20th)
- 455 yards (21st)
- 2% target share (27th)
- 8% target rate (36th)
- 452 air yards (18th)
- 7 average depth of target (18th)
- 80 yards per route run (36th)
- 8.0 yards per target (29th)
- 7.0 yards per reception (29th)
- 80 yards per team pass attempt (28th)
Those are some brutal numbers. He finished last year as the TE24 with a 5.6 half-PPR PPG average, and his 5.9 half-PPR expected PPG average ranked him as the TE26. If there was one positive, he tied for 10th in touchdowns with four. However, he tied for 10th with three other players, and four touchdowns aren’t exactly moving the needle. He did have 17 red-zone targets (ninth most) and six end-zone targets (ninth most). Otton can make for a halfway decent streamer based on his playing time, route participation rate, and red-zone utilization, but there’s little else here.
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