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July's here and we're riding a heat wave of content with our weekly rest-of-season series that looks at my top 101 SP Baller Ranks breakdown. As the season wears on, any potential speed bumps or skipped starts make up a greater percentage of the remaining schedule. Read on for the Week 15 edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
Check out my SP thoughts with tiered ranks, complemented by a rest-of-season auction value ($), their Previous Week's Value (PV), the trend between the two, and a (+/-) column denoting the rank shift compared to last week. Please note most stats here are gathered before Tuesday's games.
These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 roto leagues, and I typically exclude most injured SPs, lest a return is imminent. The upcoming All-Star break will be a great chance to breathe and prepare for the stretch run. Now, it's time to leap into my top 101 SPs!
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
-Gerrit Cole may not be 100% but he calmed fears after that disastrous outing against the Mets with five innings of one-run ball at Toronto. There was a brief panic when the bullpen got active after the first inning but that was just a reliever getting work in. One start doesn’t change the entire complexion and we have to see Cole build momentum off this. We can breathe again!
-Seth Lugo’s strikeouts are spiking again! The MLB ERA leader (2.17) rung up eight batters apiece in starts against Oakland and Miami, which we appreciated but…it’s Oakland and Miami. He struck out 10 A’s back on May 18 and then went five straight outings with 3-5 strikeouts despite six or more innings in all of them.
But then Sunday saw him post 10 Ks against a disciplined Cleveland team that handed him his worst start of the season on June 4. (I believe he’s the first pitcher to with 10 Ks against CLE in 2024.) That performance also gave him his MLB-leading 11th win of the season. Okay, this is the avenue to steady, next-level fantasy impact.
Seth Lugo's MLB ranks
Innings Pitched: 1st (116)
ERA: 1st (2.17)
Wins: 1st (11) https://t.co/a1fVszFPQh— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) June 30, 2024
-Luis Castillo had a forgettable June after starting the month with a bang. His June 2 outing was seven shutout frames against the Halos but he’s only thrown one QS in five trips to the bump since. The 6.49 ERA in that window is ailing from a 57% strand rate after that mark sat around 82% through June 2. He had a 3.67 FIP before but it’s 4.37 in this five-start stretch. But he’s also seen the whiffs dry up, going from a 13.1% swinging-strike rate to 9.9% with a five-percentage-point rise in overall contact rate.
-Shota Imanaga rebounded to an extent, posting a bare minimum QS in San Francisco with three strikeouts and two walks over the six innings. He went six consecutive starts with a swinging-strike rate above 15% between April 20 and May 18, but five of his last six have been below 14%. And three of those were below 9%, including the last two. His zone-contact rates are going from ~75% to 85-90%, which is problematic for a fly-ball pitcher.
And the Cubs having a bottom-10 defensive unit by Defensive Runs Saved (-12 per FanGraphs) doesn’t help. Each of his five June outings had a progressively higher SIERA and xFIP than the previous one. I don’t love looking at those peripherals on a start-by-start basis but it’s a trend.
-Jack Flaherty is having his next start skipped and receiving another painkiller injection in his back. I hate preemptively “punishing” pitchers for injuries but this, on top of giving up five runs on three homers to the Halos in his latest start, provides reasonable doubt. His velocity was up slightly compared to his yearly average, but the in-zone whiff rate on his heater was a season-low 11%.
Speed bumps happen and I’m trying not to be the human who irrationally seeks out a pattern where there isn’t one. But for now, he slides behind others making a case to rise. The "should" in the following tweet is doing some heavy lifting.
Keider Montero is going to start for the Tigers tomorrow in place of Casey Mize.
Jack Flaherty is also not in Minnesota. He stayed back in LA to receive another injection in his back. He should avoid an IL stint.
— Cody Stavenhagen (@CodyStavenhagen) July 2, 2024
-Bailey Ober has enjoyed a three-start stretch with extremely favorable matchups that have regained some confidence and goodwill. The complete game with 10 strikeouts on June 22 grabbed the headlines, but four earned over 21 ⅓ IP with a 27:5 K:BB will always create intrigue. But he faced Oakland twice and then Seattle here after five consecutive outings without a QS. Can he keep this up against offenses that are simply average?
Let’s look at some recent strugglers:
-Ranger Suarez hadn’t given up more than seven hits in a game over his first 12 starts but has now done so in three of his last five. His latest was his worst, with a season-high six runs and nine hits coming against Miami with zero strikeouts over 4 ⅔ IP. His strikeout rate was 27.8% in March/April, 29.1% in May, and 16.3% in June. The zero-whiff day shines a spotlight on that trend. Some days you just don’t have it, but any outings like this in the upper tiers as a 28-year-old breakout with fading strikeouts trigger an automatic drop.
-Luis Gil only allowed one baserunner through three innings on Tuesday night against Cincinnati before the command’s wheels came off. He walked two in the fourth but largely avoided damage before hitting two batters and allowing a homer without an out recorded in the fifth. If one asserts that he’s hitting a wall at 90 IP after missing 2023 and only 25 IP in 2022, then going into the bullpen to limit him to one lineup turn makes sense.
Luis Gil is a mess right now. Maybe it's a rookie wall. Maybe all of the innings are taking their toll. Maybe he's just a volatile pitcher who struggles with control.
First 13 starts: 62% of his pitches for strikes
Last four starts: 56% of his pitches for strikes— Frank Stampfl (@Roto_Frank) July 3, 2024
Would Hal Steinbrenner finally go big at the deadline? Clarke Schmidt is still a ways away and Will Warren just gave up seven earned on June 30, so the Yanks may just abbreviate Gil’s starts in the meantime. Enjoy the early profits for what they were.
-Kevin Gausman had one great June outing against the A’s but faced strong offenses otherwise. He was not up to the task, surrendering 23 earned runs on nine HRs with a 5.42 FIP and 5.65 ERA. The K-BB% that had risen to 22.7% in May fell back down to 14.9% in June.
But he faced Baltimore, Cleveland, the Yankees, and Boston twice. Those are all top-10 teams by wRC+ and the top eight by ISO in June. Gaus is clearly nowhere near the matchup-proof lock of old, but he faces Seattle next. How far do you think the pendulum of perception swings as a result?
-Nick Pivetta just gave up five runs to San Diego and has now given up at least three runs in each of his last four starts, barely lasting four innings in three of those starts. But he also had a tough stretch, going against the Phillies, Blue Jays, Reds (in GABP), and Padres, all of whom held below-average strikeout rates and above-average wRC+ figures in June. Pivetta gets Miami on July 4 for redemption.
-Carlos Rodon has thrown three straight clunkers for a combined 20 earned runs on five homers against Boston, Atlanta, and Toronto. The southpaw’s first 14 starts had zero instances of a day’s BABIP over .417 and now he’s seen these marks of .467, .500, and .571 on the ledger.
Some would call that regression but this is a marked loss of command. His first-strike rate had been above 60% in nine straight starts before this drop, which started with a 40% F-Strike% against Boston. He’s falling behind and then getting punished. He’ll face Cincy in the Bronx on July 3.
-Framber Valdez ran up against the Grimace Mets on June 29, who knocked him for six runs on 10 hits with another three walks. Houston’s preseason ace had given us five QS in the six outings since that eight-run shellacking by the Angels on May 20, but still, all was not well. He danced around five walks against the White Sox on June 18. The resulting 18:11 K:BB in his last 21 ⅔ IP is scary. He’s slated to face the Blue Jays in Toronto on July 4.
And finally, a trio of young arms looking to make an impact:
.-Gavin Williams sharpened up in his final two rehab starts, combining for a 10:2 K:BB with two runs on seven hits across nine innings. Returning from elbow discomfort with a late-April setback, Williams gets a cushy home matchup against the White Sox for his MLB return.
The 24-year-old had a 3.29 ERA/1.26 WHIP with a 4.05 FIP/4.61 SIERA and a 23.5% strikeout rate in 82 IP last season during his first taste of the majors. But 60 IP between Double- and Triple-A had a 2.54 ERA/0.98 WHIP with a ~35% K rate, so can we get that form in Year 2 with a stellar bullpen behind him?
-Christian Scott gets another MLB shot with the Mets needing him for Wednesday’s start after Tylor Megill struggled again. Scott had an electrifying first two MLB outings, posting a pair of QS with 14 strikeouts before the next three outings saw him allow eight runs with 11 strikeouts in 15 innings. He was then demoted and struck out 13 in 8 ⅔ IP in his first two starts on the farm.
Interestingly, his last two starts have been lesser, with a 6:4 K:BB in those 8 ⅓ IP, but the Mets aren’t fazed. For what it’s worth, Jose Butto is also up but likely to help their beleaguered bullpen. (He got the win on Tuesday with two solid innings of relief.) And the trade deadline could see Jose Quintana, Sean Manaea, and Luis Severino moved with their short-term deals.
-DJ Herz is making me open Microsoft Word on a Tuesday night after joining a fellow Nationals legend on a short list of pitchers to 10-strikeout, no-walk starts in their first six career games.
MLB pitchers with two 10-K, no walk games in first 6 career outings (since at least 1901):
2024 DJ Herz
2010 Stephen StrasburgBOTH FOR THE NATS!!!!
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) July 3, 2024
The first was that 13-strikeout masterpiece against the Marlins, but it’s the Marlins. The rookie would get hit around by the Rockies (at Coors) and Padres in his next two starts so enthusiasm waned. But this came against a hot Mets team so now we’re locking in. Rookie strikeout leaders since June 4 have Herz’s 37 trailing only Paul Skenes at 40, but Herz has also given up 14 earned on six homers in 27 IP. Rostering him offers a potent double-edged sword to swing. He’s slated to face the Cardinals at home next Monday.
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 15
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | $ | PV | Trend |
| 0 | 1 | Tyler Glasnow | 1 | $44.5 | 45.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 1 | Tarik Skubal | 2 | $43.0 | 43.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 1 | Zack Wheeler | 3 | $43.0 | 43.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -1 | 1 | Corbin Burnes | 4 | $43.0 | 43.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 1 | Chris Sale | 5 | $42.0 | 40.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 2 | Garrett Crochet | 6 | $38.0 | 36.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 2 | Paul Skenes | 7 | $38.0 | 36.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| -1 | 3 | Max Fried | 8 | $36.5 | 37.5 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -3 | 3 | Cole Ragans | 9 | $36.0 | 38.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| 0 | 3 | Gerrit Cole | 10 | $34.0 | 34.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 3 | Sonny Gray | 11 | $34.0 | 34.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 3 | Joe Ryan | 12 | $33.0 | 33.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 3 | Aaron Nola | 13 | $33.0 | 32.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 3 | 3 | Zac Gallen | 14 | $31.0 | 30.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 3 | 3 | George Kirby | 15 | $31.0 | 30.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 3 | 3 | Logan Gilbert | 16 | $31.0 | 30.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -2 | 3 | Logan Webb | 17 | $30.0 | 31.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 2 | 3 | Grayson Rodriguez | 18 | $30.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 5 | 3 | Justin Steele | 19 | $27.0 | 25.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 25 | 3 | Seth Lugo | 20 | $26.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 ▲ |
| 4 | 3 | Tanner Bibee | 21 | $26.0 | 23.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| -10 | 3 | Luis Castillo | 22 | $26.0 | 33.0 | -7.0 ▼ |
| -7 | 4 | Shota Imanaga | 23 | $25.0 | 31.0 | -6.0 ▼ |
| -3 | 4 | Tanner Houck | 24 | $25.0 | 29.0 | -4.0 ▼ |
| 2 | 4 | Pablo Lopez | 25 | $24.0 | 22.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 4 | Dylan Cease | 26 | $24.0 | 22.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| -1 | 4 | Freddy Peralta | 27 | $23.0 | 23.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -6 | 4 | Ranger Suarez | 28 | $23.0 | 26.0 | -3.0 ▼ |
| 1 | 4 | Jared Jones | 29 | $22.0 | 21.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 1 | 4 | Reynaldo Lopez | 30 | $20.5 | 20.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -8 | 4 | Jack Flaherty | 31 | $20.5 | 26.0 | -5.5 ▼ |
| 7 | 4 | Bailey Ober | 32 | $19.0 | 16.5 | 2.5 ▲ |
| 8 | 4 | Hunter Brown | 33 | $19.0 | 16.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 9 | 4 | Cristopher Sanchez | 34 | $19.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 ▲ |
| 11 | 5 | Taj Bradley | 35 | $18.0 | 14.0 | 4.0 ▲ |
| 1 | 5 | Ronel Blanco | 36 | $17.5 | 17.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 3 | 5 | Michael King | 37 | $17.0 | 16.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -5 | 5 | MacKenzie Gore | 38 | $16.5 | 17.5 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -1 | 5 | Max Scherzer | 39 | $16.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 12 | 5 | Gavin Stone | 40 | $16.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 ▲ |
| 3 | 5 | Kutter Crawford | 41 | $16.0 | 14.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 8 | 5 | Nathan Eovaldi | 42 | $15.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 5 | 5 | Ryan Pepiot | 43 | $15.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| -2 | 5 | Bobby Miller | 44 | $14.5 | 15.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -16 | 5 | Kevin Gausman | 45 | $14.0 | 21.0 | -7.0 ▼ |
| -12 | 5 | Nick Pivetta | 46 | $14.0 | 17.5 | -3.5 ▼ |
| -12 | 6 | Carlos Rodon | 47 | $12.0 | 17.5 | -5.5 ▼ |
| 1 | 6 | Hunter Greene | 48 | $12.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 6 | Nestor Cortes | 49 | $12.0 | 11.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -18 | 6 | Luis Gil | 50 | $12.0 | 19.0 | -7.0 ▼ |
| 3 | 6 | Zach Eflin | 51 | $11.5 | 10.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 8 | 6 | Reese Olson | 52 | $10.0 | 8.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| N/A | 6 | Gavin Williams | 53 | $10.0 | N/A | N/A |
| -18 | 6 | Framber Valdez | 54 | $10.0 | 17.5 | -7.5 ▼ |
| -2 | 6 | Matt Waldron | 55 | $10.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 6 | Mitch Keller | 56 | $10.0 | 8.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| -2 | 7 | Yusei Kikuchi | 57 | $9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -2 | 7 | Chris Bassitt | 58 | $8.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 7 | Jake Irvin | 59 | $8.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -13 | 7 | Bryce Miller | 60 | $8.5 | 12.0 | -3.5 ▼ |
| N/A | 7 | Christian Scott | 61 | $8.5 | N/A | N/A |
| -5 | 7 | Erick Fedde | 62 | $8.0 | 8.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 7 | Spencer Schwellenbach | 63 | $8.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 7 | Tobias Myers | 64 | $7.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 8 | Jose Berrios | 65 | $6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -5 | 8 | Kyle Gibson | 66 | $6.0 | 8.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| 2 | 8 | Mitchell Parker | 67 | $5.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -2 | 8 | Cade Povich | 68 | $5.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 1 | 8 | Marcus Stroman | 69 | $5.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 8 | Brandon Pfaadt | 70 | $5.0 | 4.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 11 | 8 | Andrew Heaney | 71 | $5.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 8 | DJ Herz | 72 | $5.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -5 | 8 | Jon Gray | 73 | $4.5 | 5.5 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 1 | 8 | Charlie Morton | 74 | $4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 8 | Spencer Arrighetti | 75 | $4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 8 | David Festa | 76 | $3.5 | N/A | N/A |
| 0 | 8 | Simeon Woods Richardson | 77 | $3.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 5 | 8 | Jose Quintana | 78 | $3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 5 | 8 | Kyle Hendricks | 79 | $3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 8 | 9 | Zack Littell | 80 | $2.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 8 | 9 | Luis Severino | 81 | $2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 ▲ |
| N/A | 9 | Landon Knack | 82 | $2.5 | N/A | N/A |
| 7 | 9 | Michael Lorenzen | 83 | $2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 7 | 9 | Andrew Abbott | 84 | $2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 7 | 9 | Carson Spiers | 85 | $2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 8 | 9 | Brady Singer | 86 | $2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 8 | 9 | Michael Wacha | 87 | $2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 8 | 9 | Jameson Taillon | 88 | $2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| N/A | 9 | Jose Soriano | 89 | $1.5 | N/A | N/A |
| 8 | 9 | Sean Manaea | 90 | $1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 6 | 10 | Lance Lynn | 91 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 10 | Mitch Spence | 92 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -8 | 10 | Tyler Anderson | 93 | $1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 5 | 10 | Trevor Rogers | 94 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 5 | 10 | Griffin Canning | 95 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 10 | Ben Lively | 96 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | Davis Daniel | 97 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | Jonathan Cannon | 98 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| -26 | 10 | Cal Quantrill | 99 | $1.0 | 4.0 | -3.0 ▼ |
| N/A | 10 | Josh Winckowski | 100 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| -15 | 10 | Brayan Bello | 101 | $1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
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