Fantasy Football Early-Round Overvalued Draft Picks (QB, RB, WR, TE)

September 2, 2024

Nick's 2024 fantasy football overvalued players and potential busts in the early rounds. NFL players with inflated ADPs to avoid in fantasy football drafts.

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While writing about sleepers and positive outcomes is entertaining, not every player's outlook can generate profits this season. And we want your sleeper picks to complement foundational building blocks from the early rounds to construct a juggernaut. Let's look at some names whose fantasy output may struggle to meet their draft-day cost.

Here we'll be looking at some studs who I think will underperform their average draft position (ADP) and fail to deliver for fantasy teams. It will be mentioned a couple of times but please note that being overvalued does not mean the player is bad/undraftable. If they fall a round or two then the math changes! All ADP data used for this article is for Half-PPR formats from aggregate ADP as of 06/30/2024.

Early-Round Overvalued Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud (HOU), QB5

If we group each quarterback group into buckets, most would have Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts in the top tier, with Patrick Mahomes II and Lamar Jackson either joining them or clearly in a second tier. Stroud becomes the first of the rest, but it’s easy to see why. Any rookie making a splash will foster positivity, and those who soared with him remain in HOU, including offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. Mix in the addition of Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon and you’ve got a stew going.

But even so, is it enough? If you spend up for a top-five QB then you need top-five production. And while Stroud did plenty in 2023, he was not a top-five QB. He was the QB13 in standard scoring, but he did miss most of Weeks 14-16 due to injury. Let’s just look at Weeks 1-13…and there it is! He was the QB5 in total points and the QB4 with 20.2 PPG. Though he did have a cushy schedule tossed in there.

Today's stat @RotoWire C.J. Stroud had 6 300-yd gms. 4 of 6 gms came in W9-12, which was his only easy stretch of gms (#22-29 vs QBs).Stroud had 1 gm with more than 2 pass TDs. Don't forget, this offense is like the 49ers- they may not pass often. Stroud's ADP may be his ceiling. pic.twitter.com/2aTSw2Myu9

— Jim Coventry (@JimCoventryNFL) June 28, 2024

To be clear, Stroud is not bad. The price in a vacuum might even be appropriate! But that doesn’t make a good value within the market of fantasy QB ADPs in 2024. Dak Prescott had 21.7 PPG in that W1-13 window. Justin Herbert, Brock Purdy, Sam Howell, Patrick Mahomes II, Jordan Love, and Kirk Cousins were all within a single point per game of Stroud.

Stroud also was effectively sixth in fantasy points per dropback with 0.53, per FantasyPoints’ Data Suite. Purdy (0.64) was the leader, with Prescott (0.57) and Lamar Jackson (0.57) joining the elite Josh Allen (0.63) and Jalen Hurts (0.63) ahead of Stroud. Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, and Russell Wilson were also between 0.51 and 0.53. Stroud’s volume helped get him there, but that can be more difficult to lean on versus the raw output per play metric.

The greater point here is that Stroud is not demonstrably better than plenty of QBs going a couple of rounds after him. Most of his ceiling is baked into the price unless he suddenly decides to rush more than 39 times for 167 yards. The difference between opting for Stroud in Round 5 over a QB in Rounds 7-10 may buy you another point per week. But the opportunity cost of a fifth-round RB/WR such as Keenan Allen or Joe Mixon could leave a bigger gap compared to Keon Coleman or Devin Singletary, for instance.

*Stroud stands as the cautionary tale but the thrust here is not leaping into the next tier of player. The next QB at the top of the board has allure but our site projections have Stroud scoring within a 10-point band of four other QBs who are typically going a round or two later. Everyone’s draft room is different but you should see what the market presents to you.

Early-Round Overvalued Running Backs

Josh Jacobs (GB), RB11

Jacobs looks to shake off a terrible 2023 campaign in a new Green Bay Packers uniform. Coming off of a league-leading 1,653 rushing yards on 340 totes in 2022, Jacobs would only record 805 yards on 233 carries. The yards per carry slipping from 4.9 to 3.5 was quite the pendulum swing.

The veteran would amass a poor 65.0 overall PFF grade in ‘23, ranking 73rd out of 130 scored halfbacks. The specific 70.1 rushing grade was 62nd. He couldn’t salvage poor efficiency with touchdowns either, scoring just six times over 13 games. His age-26 campaign should hold better red-zone opportunities with a much-improved offensive environment, but the trade-offs are pretty clear.

The Packers have a blossoming passing group, with Jordan Love having just been the QB5 thanks to Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton, Luke Musgrave, and Aaron Jones. Perhaps Jacobs can finally score his first career receiving TD here! The NFELO app had Green Bay with a 61% passing rate and +0.2% passing rate over expectation (PROE), making them one of 10 teams with a positive PROE value.

And then there’s the matter of head coach Matt LaFleur preferring an RB committee approach:

#Packers HC Matt LaFleur on Josh Jacobs:

“I do think he’s very capable of being a high volume feature back where he’s getting the bulk of the carries, but we’ll see how it plays out.”

LaFleur on the RB rotation: “Typically, we like to platoon those guys, whether it’s two guys… pic.twitter.com/OrSCyZbIQZ

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 29, 2024

Jacobs could certainly do well as the “1A” but the Pack not only still have AJ Dillon, but they also spent a Day 2 pick on MarShawn Lloyd out of USC. Lloyd packs a punch and just averaged 7.1 YPC with nine touchdowns on 116 carries as a junior. This makes Jacobs a tough buy when others with more projected volume, such as Isiah Pacheco and Joe Mixon, are going behind him. Others in clearly defined committees, such as both Pittsburgh RBs, are going three rounds later.

*August update: Lloyd has sustained a hamstring injury so perhaps Jacobs has a better chance at early momentum. We still have reservations about long-term upside in an offense molded like this.

James Cook (BUF), RB14

Cook has a couple of issues to contend with this season. The biggest is his 6-foot-5 quarterback who just rushed for 15 touchdowns, but most drafters and the market know and accept the lower TD equity. That’s not a great starting point, but at least Cook is an involved receiver and can make up some volume between the 20s.

Only, Cook took himself out of the equation at times with four fumbles. He was also charged with six drops on 54 targets, with his 11.1% drop rate standing as the third-worst among 139 receivers last season. That’s not a death knell, as Jahmyr Gibbs was at 11.3% and other studs can be found around here, but it won’t help if you aren’t shining elsewhere.

Out of 23 rushers with over 200 carries last season, Cook’s eight broken tackles were the fewest. I will point out that his 2.0 yards after contact per attempt is healthy. Regardless, the Bills were far more comfortable leaning on Allen and an ineffective Latavius Murray when the trenches jammed up by the red zone. Cook had 29 RZ carries yet was the only RB with over 25 RZ totes to only score once. Of those 29 RZ looks, only four came within the five-yard line. That’s bad!

And now the Bills brought in Ray Davis with a fourth-round pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. Davis has 220 lbs on a 5-foot-8 frame and just scored 14 TDs in 13 games at Kentucky. Cook must now fend him off, improve his ball security, and somehow earn more premium looks in the red zone. It’s a tall order.

Early-Round Overvalued Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs (HOU), WR18

Diggs enters a Texans team that immediately provides more target competition than he’s dealt with in recent seasons. The market is used to Diggs being the alpha, but can we say that with such conviction next to Nico Collins and Tank Dell? Early best-ball attitudes make it easier to stomach the lesser weeks if you can justify it with spikes, but even then you are burning a third-round pick on loads of volatility.

And that would be true even if we assumed the best form of Diggs, which we cannot do after the 2023 season’s second half. Between Weeks 10-17, Diggs was the half-PPR WR55 with a horrid 6.8 PPG buoyed by one 16.4 score. Otherwise, he never actually topped that 6.8 PPG mark. For reference, he had double-digit points in nine straight games to open the season.

Perhaps you are banking on a phantom injury getting cleared up or simply leaning on the star receiver’s overall body of work rather than succumbing to recency bias. But even then you must contend with Collins and Dell, who had respective team target rates of 26.8% and 23.1% last season.

Dalton Schultz was also a top-12 TE in both raw fantasy points and by PFF’s receiving grade. They brought in Joe Mixon, who has averaged over 50 receptions over his last three seasons in Cincinnati. And if someone falters or gets injured, Noah Brown proved capable with three top-10 PPR weeks in extremely limited duty. C.J. Stroud has shown that greatness is within his wheelhouse, but something has to give so your confidence better shine like this market price.

Jordan Addison (MIN, WR42)

Addison had a solid rookie campaign and wound up as the WR21 in half-PPR, producing with a touch of boom-bust flair as the downfield threat. Addison had the eighth-highest touchdown rate of 9.3%, enjoying a run of five TDs in four games played with Kirk Cousins but without Justin Jefferson. Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall combined for 12 passing TDs in the remaining nine games.

And now we’re likely seeing a rookie, J.J. McCarthy, stepping in as the signal-caller for Minnesota. His NFL Draft Profile cites how his “deep balls need to come out quicker and with more air under them,” as well as how “modest arm strength might be magnified by windup in his delivery.” Addison enjoyed 15 red-zone targets, tied for a top-20 mark in the NFL, and his 11.8 average depth of target was a top-25 distance among 75 WRs with at least 50 targets, per NFELO. Losing Kirk could hurt Addison's downfield production more than one initially thinks:

Catchable target rate on throws at least 20 yards downfield, 2021-2023

Receivers who played with Kirk Cousins highlighted in yellow.

Receivers who get to play with him in 2024 highlighted in green.

(via @FantasyPtsData) pic.twitter.com/QQ5ByD6XLl

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) June 24, 2024

ProFootballReference has Addison with 108 targets on 606 total team targets, making for an underwhelming 17.8% rate despite overlapping with injuries to Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson. Do you believe that Addison can once again command 33.3% of Minnesota’s passing TDs and be hyperefficient with a lesser team target share from a rookie who scouts believe is lacking on the deep ball?

The addition of a receiving back in Aaron Jones alongside a healthy Jefferson could make things tough. And Hockenson is reportedly ahead of schedule in his rehab from a torn ACL and MCL. We still expect some missed time there but we also want to invest in a receiver whose role will grow, not diminish, as the precious playoff weeks approach. Tread carefully!

*Update: Addison might now be facing a suspension after being charged with a misdemeanor DUI after a July 12 arrest. This is his second driving-related incident after a July 2023 misdemeanor speeding charge for going 140 mph in Minnesota. The timing of this second incident may carry extra team discipline since it came less than a week after Minnesota's rookie cornerback Rhyree Jackson was killed in a car accident. His ADP has barely shifted in redraft leagues, though it has considerably fallen in best ball formats.

Early-Round Overvalued Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta (DET), TE1

This is not an indictment of LaPorta’s talent, let’s be clear. He earned his breakout rookie season with top-eight TE weeks in each of his first three NFL games, including the TE1 PPR score in Week 3. LaPorta would stay hot throughout the season, further endearing himself to drafters with four top-five weeks between Weeks 12-17.

In all, his 239.3 PPR points edged Evan Engram’s 230.3 for TE1 honors. In half-PPR, his 196.3 points had a higher gap over Engram and three others between 170-174 points. But you’re sharp and won’t be duped by raw totals without further context, right? The best ability is availability and LaPorta played all 17 games, as did Engram.

But Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, David Njoku, and T.J. Hockenson did not. Kittle and Njoku only missed Week 18, but Kelce, Andrews, and Hockenson missed W1-17 time, with Andrews missing seven games plus an early exit. So let’s take a look at per-game stats rather than totals.

In half-PPR, LaPorta, Kelce, Hockenson, and Andrews all averaged between 11.3-11.5 points, with Kittle tallying 10.7, Engram scoring 10.2, and Njoku with 10. In full PPR, Kelce and Hockenson led with 14.6, while LaPorta (14.1), Engram (13.5), Andrews (13.5), Kittle (12.7), and Njoku (12.6) were behind them.

Sam LaPorta
14.1 PPG in 2023
35.1 overall ADP in 2024

Evan Engram
13.5 PPG in 2023
78.4 overall ADP in 2024

🤔🤔🤔

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) June 29, 2024

The point here is that if one assumes general health for the top TEs then how is LaPorta a good value as the costliest one given the clumping of their PPG? And the opportunity cost of a valuable RB/WR in the third round cannot be overlooked. The suggestion is turning elsewhere when LaPorta tends to come up in draft rooms.

*Dalton Kincaid would be the next man up but his ADP is a lesser land mine. It’s been a limited sample size but we’ve yet to see Buffalo commit to him with elite volume when Dawson Knox is healthy and available near the red zone.

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