The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 13

June 16, 2024

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued, and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 13 of the 2024 MLB season.

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 13 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season -- June 17 through June 23. This is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the season rolls on, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players.

If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord (which you can join by clicking here), or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Cedric Mullins - OF, Baltimore Orioles - 55% rostered

Mullins 2021 season is looking more and more like an outlier rather than a ceiling. Maybe it was the baseballs but after hitting 30 homers in 159 games, Mullins has managed 37 homers in 335 games since. He does still possess good speed with 66 stolen bases in that period, after tallying 30 steals in 2021. That speed is about the only thing keeping Mullins rostered in 2024.

After 64 games, Mullins is hitting .188/.239/.325 with six homers, 22 RBI, 29 runs, and 13 stolen bases. He's seeing a drop in playing time, in part due to an inability to hit left-handed pitching (LHP). He's currently got a .151/.182/.245 slash line against lefties and 20 wRC+ (50 plate appearances). If we look at his hit metrics this year, Mullins isn't hitting anything effectively.

Having a .325 slugging percentage and outperforming your xSLG is a pretty big red flag in itself. Mullins' last home run came on April 26 and he's only had five extra-base hits since then. Three of them have come since last Sunday and Mullins is hitting .333/.391/.524 over the last seven days. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are down over the last week so it's difficult to tell whether this is the start of a resurgence or a small sample fluke.

Verdict: As is normally the situation in these cases, if you've held Mullins this long and want to see if he has turned a corner, holding him is fine. Mullins still has to earn back more regular playing time to be worthwhile rostering in anything but deeper leagues. And he's unlikely to face many LHP, further limiting his value. He's the 72nd-ranked outfielder on Yahoo! and it's tough to make a strong case to roster Mullins in shallower leagues. 

Junior Caminero - 1B, Tampa Bay Rays - 30% rostered

This could be the first time a player features on The Cut List without having played an MLB game that season. Despite the lack of a Major League at-bat in 2024, Caminero is someone I'm regularly asked about. So, I figured I'd give a definitive answer. It is perfectly fine to drop him in redraft leagues. Caminero suffered a quad strain at the end of May and isn't likely to be seen on the field until the end of June.

#Rays Cash said top prospect Junior Caminero has a Grade 2 left quad strain and is likely to miss 4-6 weeks.

— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) May 29, 2024

That's the best best-case scenario. Caminero will also need another week or two before he's considered as a candidate for a promotion to the Majors. Potentially, it'll be the end of July if the six-week estimate is more accurate. There's a reason why Caminero's inclusion this week is more pertinent. This philosophy can be more broadly applied to other prospects.

We're at a stage of the season where you will know what categories you need to focus more on. Where your team's strengths and weaknesses are. Unless you are in the small minority and your team is crushing it across the board, you will likely need to find help off waivers. So you could keep stashing a prospect who could get called up soon and could be great straight away. Or, you can go get that required help off of waivers.

Verdict: Caminero has elite power that few prospects possess. He hit eight homers in 34 games at Triple-A before the injury but it remains to be seen how soon that power translates into the Majors. Realistically, how many home runs can we expect from Caminero this year? Probably not enough to warrant stashing him instead of picking up an actual starting Major Leaguer.

Hold For Now

Nico Hoerner - 2B, Chicago Cubs - 87% rostered

If you roster Hoerner, you'd have likely used a pick inside the first six rounds to draft him. He's not come close to providing value on his ADP. After 62 games, Hoerner has two homers, 18 RBI, 32 runs, and 10 stolen bases with a .244/.335/.338 slash line. That's a 150-game pace (the number of games Hoerner played last year), of five homers, 44 RBI, 77 runs, and 24 stolen bases. He managed to go 0-for-4 with an RBI and a stolen base yesterday. It's been that kind of season for Hoerner.

Those numbers are much more similar to his 2022 season rather than 2023. Hoerner doesn't look like he'll come close to matching last season's 43 steals. You wouldn't have drafted Hoerner for power or RBI, which probably makes him overvalued in drafts anyway. But the lack of stolen bases and the disappointing batting average will sting. The drop down the batting order to the six hole won't help with the runs either.

But there is a bit of a silver lining. Hoerner has a .267 xBA (expected batting average) which ranks in the 68th percentile. Hoerner's 0.96 BB/K is fourth-best among the 150 qualified hitters. With a bit more luck, Hoerner should raise his batting average and get more chances to steal. The Cubs rank 11th in stolen bases (57) so it's not like they aren't running. Hoerner is someone that should improve and be worth rostering still.

Kutter Crawford - SP, Boston Red Sox - 72% rostered

One of Crawford's rotation buddies will feature a little later. While they both excelled to begin the year, the Red Sox rotation has scuffled a bit since May 1. Their starters' 4.51 ERA since May 1 ranks 23rd and Crawford himself has a 4.98 ERA in that time. He's given up 17 earned runs in his last four starts (22.1 IP). That's left him with a 2-6 W-L record, 3.47 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 79 Ks in 80.1 IP (14 starts).

The above chart shows Crawford's wOBA against each pitch by month (via Baseball Savant). As we can see, his fastball has been pulverized lately. Given it's Crawford's most-thrown pitch (34.1% usage), that needs to change. The expected numbers aren't ideal either. Crawford's fastball has a .304 SLG against it but a .422 xSLG. What we've seen is some natural regression after a hot start. We may see more regression in the coming weeks.

Despite that, I'm still suggesting Crawford is worth holding on to. His 4.06 xFIP and 3.88 SIERA also hint at further regression. But if Crawford ends the season with a 3.80 to 4.00 ERA and retains his 23.4% K% (57th percentile), he'll likely be an average fantasy pitcher. And that is still worthwhile rostering. With the amount of injured starting pitchers we've seen, rostering an average starting pitcher or two will help your teams.

On the Hot Seat

Michael Harris II - OF, Atlanta Braves - 96% rostered

I've held off including Harris II on The Cut List for a while now. And of course, when I do decide it's time to feature him, he gets hurt. A hamstring injury has seen Harris II placed on the IL yesterday. It remains to be seen how long Harris II is sidelined with no timetable for a return offered at this early stage. The early signs are it'll be some time before we see him on the field again.

#Braves’ Michael Harris II has a Grade 2 strain of his left hamstring, MRI showed. No timetable for return. Snitker: “Those things are all different and it takes a long time to get where they can torque it.”

— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) June 15, 2024

In fantasy terms, it makes things a lot easier in deciding what to do. Simply place Harris II on your IL, then await further news. Assuming he's not going to miss the entire rest of the season, you can hold him. If you don't have an IL spot, I'd still look at holding Harris II on my bench, assuming he is back with more than a couple of weeks of the regular season left. But it's a team-by-team case.

So what of his on-field performances? Well, at the time of the injury, Harris II ranked as the 62nd outfielder. Not what you want from someone routinely drafted inside the first three rounds. His .250/.295/.358 slash line is the worst since debuting in 2022 and his five homers, 20 RBI, 30 runs and eight stolen bases are below what you expected when drafting Harris II.

Harris II does have better expected numbers. He's got a .271 xBA, .398 xSLG, and .312 xwOBA (.288 wOBA). The expected batting average ranks in the 75th percentile but would still be below his career .295 batting average coming into this season. Harris II was still on course to reach 20 stolen bases, the number he tallied in each of the previous two seasons. It's been the bat that's lacking.

A comparison of his hitting metrics over the last three seasons shows us that he's just not been making as good a contact as last year. But they're not too dissimilar to 2022.

Given Harris II had a .297/.339/.514 slash line and 19 homers in 2022, it looks like fortune was on his side. His .361 BABIP certainly stands out. Maybe this year is a bit of baseball karma playing out. Whatever it is, Harris II should have better numbers than he has this year. You will have also noticed the inclusion of the Pull%.

Harris II has been pulling the ball more. Generally, hitters pulling the ball more will have better power numbers. But when you have middling power like Harris II, it won't necessarily translate into more homers or better power numbers. Pulling the ball more but barrelling it less also won't turn into more homers. It remains to be seen if this trend will continue or if the results will remain the same.

For now, just leave Harris II on the IL and we'll see if he can turn things around when he returns. If you have a roster crunch with no IL space and limited bench spots, I'd have no problem dropping Harris II. I doubt he will return before early August at best and the Braves may have to do without Harris II until September. Like with stashing prospects, it's difficult to justify holding Harris II without the luxury of an empty IL spot.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Taylor Ward - OF, Los Angeles Angels - 80% rostered

Ward got off to a scorching start to the season. By the end of April, Ward had seven homers and a .273/.310/.496 slash line. He's slowed down since then and after a solid May, he's been dreadful in June. Ward is hitting just .105/.277/.237 this month. On Tuesday, Ward went 2-for-3 with a homer, two RBI and two runs. They were his first runs scored this month and still are his only RBI in June.

He was removed early in Tuesday's contest with back tightness and subsequently missed Wednesday's game. Ward did return as the designated hitter on Thursday and has been the DH in the subsequent games. If Ward has been dealing with a back issue, that might explain his struggles, and it's worth monitoring moving forward. What has been impressive from Ward is the fact he's been improving his on-base percentage despite his batting average taking a nosedive.

Ward had hit 37 homers in 232 games over the previous two seasons, along with a .269/.349/.451 slash line. Although that's not a huge track record, between that and the first two months of the season, there's not enough reason to drop Ward. Admittedly, in shallow leagues with three starting outfielders, Ward is not a lock for rostering. But if you've enjoyed the early weeks of the season with Ward on your roster, I'd keep it that way.

Triston McKenzie - SP, Cleveland Guardians - 56% rostered

McKenzie was featured on The Cut List (Week 5 edition) as a droppable player in shallower leagues. We had just discovered that he had been pitching with a partially torn UCL and had opted against Tommy John Surgery (TJS) in 2023. After some early struggles, McKenzie has been a solid rotation option in recent weeks.

After 13 starts, McKenzie has a 3-3 W-L record, 4.10 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 65 Ks (68.0 IP). He has improved since appearing in The Cut List, putting up a 3.78 ERA in nine starts. He's also raised his strikeout rate and lowered his walk rate in that time. All positives. Yet, my stance hasn't changed on McKenzie. His UCL is still partially torn and he's still someone you won't want to start against the better offenses, making him a streaming option in shallower leagues.

McKenzie's 4.94 xFIP and 4.79 SIERA suggest he's been lucky this year. Overall, his 22.0% K% is down on his career mark (25.9% K%). McKenzie's 12.8% BB% is up on his career 9.4% BB% and he's only completed six innings on three occasions. In deeper leagues, McKenzie is still worth holding as long as he's able to pitch. In shallower leagues, I'd hope he can have another couple of solid starts and then look to trade him away. Using him solely as a streaming option is not the worst idea.

Brayan Bello - SP, Boston Red Sox - 55% rostered

The Red Sox rotation collectively had the best ERA in baseball at the end of April. The Boston starters compiled a 2.00 ERA in the opening 30 games of the season and Bello was a big part of that. Bello had a 3.04 ERA when the calendars flipped over to May. Since then, things have gone downhill. Bello now finds himself with a 6-4 W-L record, 5.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 56 Ks after 12 starts (63.0 IP).

We'll address his ERA shortly but it's noticeable that Bello has only 56 strikeouts in 63.0 IP. And he's only totaled 63.0 IP in 12 starts. Like McKenzie, Bello has only completed six innings on three occasions this year. Last weekend's start was the second time Bello has given up five runs and failed to make it through the fifth inning. He repeated the feat on Friday, albeit with one run being unearned due to his error.

3-0 Yankees. Bello did not appear excited about this error pic.twitter.com/vj1ZCI8ijh

— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) June 15, 2024

Bello's ERA does look inflated given he has a 3.75 xFIP and 3.95 SIERA. The thing that will continue to hold back Bello from being a good fantasy option is the lack of strikeouts. Given he had a 19.8% K% last year (157 IP), Bello's 20.3% K% this year likely won't get much better. Bello is similar to teammate Crawford but with fewer strikeouts. That makes him more of a deeper league option or a streamer in shallower leagues.

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