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Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome back to my weekly top 101 SP Baller Ranks breakdown. I'm back after a month-long sabbatical across Europe and boy, there is plenty to catch up on! It's a crazy game but we do our best at building a roadmap with the Week 8 edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
It's been a month and a half already, with about 25% of the season in the books. There are several encouraging starts while others still can't shake off a slow start, with a few key prospects thrown in the mix that have taken our world by storm. Let's dive into the data and see what we've got moving forward with tiered ranks, complemented by a rest-of-season auction value ($) and Earned Value thus far per FanGraphs (EV).
These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 roto leagues and I typically exclude most injured SPs, lest a return is imminent. Next week I will include injured ranks, as well as a top-10 prospect stash list. For now, let's dive into my top 101 healthy SPs and build a winner.
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
-Tyler Glasnow is one of the best arms in the game when healthy, and the current injuries to Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole, and Jacob deGrom further help a healthy Glasnow stand out. Tarik Skubal is up there as another durability risk, but he threw 40 fewer frames than Glasnow last year so the assumed ceiling/workload is lower.
-Kevin Gausman looked to be returning to form with a four-start stretch with only two combined earned runs in those 24 innings (21:6 K:BB). But then the Twins knocked him around for seven runs (6 ER) on 10 hits and two walks over three innings. Any day with a .818 BABIP is a bad one, but ~60% of balls in play were hard-hit, per Statcast. Maybe he'll never be able to handle Minnesota.
Kevin Gausman's career stats per 9 innings:
vs. MLB (excluding Twins) — 3.84 ERA
1510.2 IP | 8.7 H/9 | 1.1 HR/9 | 2.4 BB/9 | 9.3 K/9vs. Twins — 6.94 ERA
59.2 IP | 11.6 H/9 | 1.4 HR/9 | 3.0 BB/9 | 10.7 K/9#TOTHECORE https://t.co/Y4QsKYuwUr pic.twitter.com/p6EVeRaZHL— BlueJays Muse (@BlueJays_Muse) May 12, 2024
He’s simply making too many mistakes and they’re getting punished. His 7.9% Barrels/PA rate is the eighth worst among 110 pitchers (min. 100 batted-ball events), with a 42.6% sweet-spot (launch angle) rate, which trails only Aaron Civale’s 46%. The 3.67 SIERA provides some hope, but Statcast’s 5.59 xERA doesn’t. There is something for both optimists and pessimists to lean on, but the pessimists have more firepower now.
His .360 BABIP is far higher than the .316 career mark, but he carried a .363 BABIP over 175 IP two seasons ago. Don’t blame the defense, as Toronto’s team dWAR on FanGraphs leads the majors at 18.7, with 31 Defensive Runs Saved (t-1st). Mix in an average 22.6% K rate, his worst since 2018, and trust is understandably low.
-Logan Webb ripped off quality starts in five of his first six outings of 2024, with the only poor game coming against the Dodgers. But he’s been slapped by 24 hits over his last three starts (14 ⅔ IP), as that steady diet of groundballs can sometimes find holes in cruel streaks. He worked around eight hits for another QS on May 10 at home against Cincy, giving him a 1.24 ERA in SF against 5.92 on the road. The overall 2.90 FIP and 4.65 xERA echo Gausman’s gap but confidence in Webb is higher on my sheet.
The top five pitchers on the FIP leaderboard in the last 30 days (min. 20 IP):
- Jon Gray (1.49)
- Tarik Skubal (1.50)
- Tanner Houck (2.04)
- Dylan Cease (2.10)
- Chris Sale (2.10)
The sixth is Trevor Williams at 2.19, which feels weird. Like, is FIP broken? It’s all suspect now.
Top five pitchers for SIERA in the last 30 (min. 20 IP):
- Pablo Lopez (2.03)
- Jack Flaherty (2.09)
- Chris Sale (2.27)
- Tyler Glasnow (2.42)
- Tarik Skubal (2.44)
The sixth is Garrett Crochet at 2.50, which feels good. SIERA confirmed not broken. Given that it’s SIERA, this is also the top six in K-BB%, too.
-Garrett Crochet had three great starts to open the season, then three terrible ones, followed by three excellent ones. His latest was the best yet, as he blanked Cleveland over six innings with a season-high 11 strikeouts and zero walks. That gives him back-to-back starts without a free pass and a 64:9 K:BB on the year.
Given his missing 2022 entirely and only throwing 25 IP last season (MLB and MiLB), it was fair to ask if his initial surge led to fatigue. But this recent run means you’re in until the innings cap hits or something like velocity falling off. They're already making plans to potentially shorten Crochet's future starts.
Sox will keep Soroka stretched out with multi-inning relief work, again, similar to how Flexen was used during his brief time in the bullpen. Grifol threw out the possibility of backing up Garrett Crochet with Soroka should the Sox opt to “short start” Crochet sometime.
— Vinnie Duber (@VinnieDuber) May 14, 2024
-Jon Gray had a poor duo of starts to open the year but then enjoyed a confidence-boosting pair of outings against Oakland and Detroit in mid-April (combined 11 IP, 2 ER, 4 BB, 16 K). Overall, his last seven appearances have supplied a 1.64 ERA and a 44:6 K:BB over 38 ⅓ IP, including a revenge QS at Coors on May 10.
Also, his 3.8% HR/FB is well below the career 13.8% mark, which has never been below 11% in any full season. We’ve seen streaks out of him before so tread carefully. A six-start stretch last May/June brought an identical 44:6 K:BB with a 0.84 ERA. This doesn’t mean I’ll turn my nose up at success, but do you want to count on a 2023 Sonny Gray HR dodge-fest out of him forever?
**Newer names that bring some excitement near the bottom of the table are Robert Gasser, Mitchell Parker, Spencer Arrighetti, and Cooper Criswell.
-Gasser racked up 183 strikeouts over 147 IP at Triple-A between 2023-24, but a walk rate near 10% could get him into trouble. So naturally, his MLB debut brings six scoreless with just four strikeouts and zero walks! The intrigue is there but a tendency toward fly balls (~40% across the minors) could bring trouble in the bigs.
-Parker had not put up particularly strong numbers in the minors outside of plus strikeouts, but he’s come on well at 24 years old in ‘24. He didn't fare well on Tuesday against the ChiSox (5 IP, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K), though his ERA still sits at 3.09 (3.45 FIP) through six starts. He isn't the first pitcher to show big whiffs in the minors only to barely hit a 20% strikeout rate in their first taste of the majors, and he won't be the last! Good control keeps him in streaming circles.
-Arrighetti has a viable four-pitch mix (four-seamer, cutter, curveball, slider) but can’t throw enough strikes. He’s issued multiple walks in all six starts thus far, which has made the .403 BABIP far more damaging. It looks like Hunter Brown gets a start later this week to form a six-man rotation and Jose Urquidy is on the mend. If Arrighetti finds increased command then we’ve got fire, but until then he’s more of a speculative stash.
-Criswell started with the Angels and then jumped to the Rays, who started to get him away from his sinker/fastball and more onto a cutter. Boston has famously gotten its starters to throw fewer fastballs, with Criswell throwing his sinker, changeup, and sweeper at around 28% each thus far. The cutter dominates left-handed batters (one hit on 77 thrown). Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta were recently activated and Garrett Whitlock’s eventual return would bump Criswell, assuming health for the lot. Until then, enjoy Criswell’s 2.10 ERA (3.28 SIERA)!
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball
| Tier | Player | Rank | $ | EV |
| 1 | Tyler Glasnow | 1 | $44.00 | $13.70 |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 2 | $43.00 | $13.00 |
| 1 | Corbin Burnes | 3 | $42.00 | $8.20 |
| 2 | Tarik Skubal | 4 | $41.00 | $14.50 |
| 2 | Pablo Lopez | 5 | $40.00 | $8.40 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 6 | $39.00 | $10.20 |
| 2 | George Kirby | 7 | $38.00 | $10.10 |
| 2 | Freddy Peralta | 8 | $36.00 | $9.30 |
| 2 | Cole Ragans | 9 | $36.00 | $10.70 |
| 2 | Jared Jones | 10 | $35.00 | $7.00 |
| 2 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 11 | $35.00 | $8.30 |
| 3 | Max Fried | 12 | $34.00 | $4.20 |
| 3 | Shota Imanaga | 13 | $33.00 | $12.90 |
| 3 | Chris Sale | 14 | $32.50 | $9.40 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 15 | $31.00 | $9.40 |
| 3 | Zac Gallen | 16 | $30.50 | $5.30 |
| 3 | Aaron Nola | 17 | $30.00 | $5.70 |
| 3 | Dylan Cease | 18 | $29.00 | $13.40 |
| 3 | Joe Ryan | 19 | $28.00 | $9.70 |
| 3 | Kevin Gausman | 20 | $26.00 | $3.70 |
| 3 | Logan Gilbert | 21 | $25.50 | $7.10 |
| 3 | Sonny Gray | 22 | $25.00 | $7.60 |
| 3 | Kyle Bradish | 23 | $24.00 | $2.60 |
| 4 | Bailey Ober | 24 | $22.00 | $8.30 |
| 4 | Yu Darvish | 25 | $21.00 | $8.00 |
| 4 | Zach Eflin | 26 | $20.00 | $5.80 |
| 4 | Michael King | 27 | $20.00 | $0.60 |
| 4 | Jesus Luzardo | 28 | $20.00 | $2.20 |
| 4 | Kutter Crawford | 29 | $19.00 | $14.30 |
| 4 | Garrett Crochet | 30 | $19.00 | $9.00 |
| 4 | Framber Valdez | 31 | $18.00 | $3.10 |
| 4 | Justin Steele | 32 | $18.00 | ($0.30) |
| 5 | Paul Skenes | 33 | $17.00 | ($0.10) |
| 5 | Yusei Kikuchi | 34 | $17.00 | $12.00 |
| 5 | Ronel Blanco | 35 | $16.50 | $3.50 |
| 5 | Christian Scott | 36 | $15.50 | $3.20 |
| 5 | Ranger Suarez | 37 | $15.00 | $13.70 |
| 5 | Jack Flaherty | 38 | $15.00 | $8.90 |
| 5 | Bryce Miller | 39 | $19.50 | $4.10 |
| 5 | MacKenzie Gore | 40 | $15.00 | $8.60 |
| 5 | Nick Pivetta | 41 | $15.00 | $0.00 |
| 5 | Walker Buehler | 42 | $15.00 | ($1.90) |
| 5 | John Means | 43 | $15.00 | $2.40 |
| 5 | Tanner Houck | 44 | $14.50 | $14.30 |
| 5 | Seth Lugo | 45 | $14.50 | $10.20 |
| 5 | Reynaldo Lopez | 46 | $14.00 | $7.90 |
| 6 | Cristopher Sanchez | 47 | $12.00 | $8.90 |
| 6 | Chris Bassitt | 48 | $12.00 | $2.00 |
| 6 | Tanner Bibee | 49 | $11.00 | $4.60 |
| 6 | Justin Verlander | 50 | $10.50 | $0.50 |
| 6 | Carlos Rodon | 51 | $10.00 | $2.30 |
| 6 | Jose Berrios | 52 | $10.00 | $2.60 |
| 6 | Brayan Bello | 53 | $10.00 | $2.00 |
| 6 | Nestor Cortes | 54 | $10.00 | $7.20 |
| 7 | Nick Lodolo | 55 | $9.50 | $7.80 |
| 7 | Hunter Greene | 56 | $9.00 | $9.90 |
| 7 | Luis Gil | 57 | $9.00 | $6.20 |
| 7 | Reese Olson | 58 | $8.50 | $8.40 |
| 7 | Jordan Hicks | 59 | $8.50 | $7.20 |
| 7 | Cristian Javier | 60 | $8.50 | $0.40 |
| 7 | Jordan Montgomery | 61 | $8.00 | $2.10 |
| 7 | Charlie Morton | 62 | $8.00 | $5.20 |
| 7 | Taj Bradley | 63 | $8.00 | $1.70 |
| 8 | Casey Mize | 64 | $6.50 | $4.60 |
| 8 | Marcus Stroman | 65 | $6.00 | ($0.30) |
| 8 | Bryan Woo | 66 | $6.00 | $1.00 |
| 8 | Gavin Stone | 67 | $6.00 | $4.70 |
| 8 | Erick Fedde | 68 | $5.50 | $4.80 |
| 8 | Brady Singer | 69 | $5.00 | $6.90 |
| 8 | Clarke Schmidt | 70 | $5.00 | $4.90 |
| 8 | Triston McKenzie | 71 | $4.50 | $1.20 |
| 8 | Mitch Keller | 72 | $4.50 | $7.00 |
| 8 | Dean Kremer | 73 | $4.00 | $1.80 |
| 8 | Andrew Heaney | 74 | $4.00 | $4.80 |
| 8 | Javier Assad | 75 | $4.00 | $7.50 |
| 8 | Reid Detmers | 76 | $4.00 | $5.00 |
| 8 | Jose Soriano | 77 | $3.50 | $3.10 |
| 8 | Brandon Pfaadt | 78 | $3.50 | $8.20 |
| 8 | Aaron Civale | 79 | $3.50 | $1.70 |
| 8 | Matt Manning | 80 | $3.50 | $1.50 |
| 9 | Griffin Canning | 81 | $3.00 | $1.20 |
| 9 | Jameson Taillon | 82 | $3.00 | $4.10 |
| 9 | Jon Gray | 83 | $3.00 | $12.60 |
| 9 | James Paxton | 84 | $2.50 | $0.90 |
| 9 | Zack Littell | 85 | $2.50 | $10.80 |
| 9 | Tyler Anderson | 86 | $2.00 | $3.90 |
| 9 | Sean Manaea | 87 | $2.00 | $6.70 |
| 9 | Alek Manoah | 88 | $2.00 | ($1.00) |
| 10 | Kyle Harrison | 89 | $1.50 | $4.30 |
| 10 | Cole Irvin | 90 | $1.50 | $5.70 |
| 10 | Braxton Garrett | 91 | $1.50 | $0.60 |
| 10 | Luis Severino | 92 | $1.50 | $5.80 |
| 10 | Andrew Abbott | 93 | $1.50 | $3.50 |
| 10 | Logan Allen | 94 | $1.00 | ($1.00) |
| 10 | Alec Marsh | 95 | $1.00 | $4.60 |
| 10 | Lance Lynn | 96 | $1.00 | $4.00 |
| 10 | Frankie Montas | 97 | $1.00 | $2.90 |
| 10 | Graham Ashcraft | 98 | $1.00 | $2.20 |
| 10 | Hunter Brown | 99 | $1.00 | ($0.70) |
| 10 | Patrick Sandoval | 100 | $1.00 | $9.20 |
| 10 | Chris Paddack | 101 | $1.00 | $3.10 |
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