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Connelly's overvalued closers for fantasy baseball. He discusses relief pitcher bust candidates for 2024 drafts - closers who will fall short of expectations.
Relief pitcher is one of the trickier positions to determine fantasy baseball value given the volatility of the position and the limited ways it can provide fantasy output. Generally speaking, relief pitchers are only valuable in most fantasy leagues if they serve as the closer for their team. There are exceptions depending on league type, but the previous statement holds for most leagues.
Last season was more stable in the closer department compared to previous seasons. Even so, big-league teams have still shifted to more flexible use of their bullpens, and any sign of struggle from a closer could lead to role upheaval. This makes it even more important to hit on your RP draft picks.
In this article, I will identify three RPs who have a higher chance of not returning the value fantasy managers are expecting. Fantasy managers can get the latest bullpen updates throughout the season by checking RotoBaller’s MLB Closers and Saves: Fantasy Baseball Depth Charts! Be sure to check all of our preseason fantasy baseball rankings for roto, points, H2H, dynasty, best ball, prospects, and more!
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Alexis Diaz, Cincinnati Reds
ADP: 92
Alexis Diaz had an excellent 2023 season. The 27-year-old converted 37 of 40 save opportunities with a 3.07 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 30.1% strikeout rate, earning him his first National League All-Star award. He is currently being drafted within the top-100 picks; why do I think he may not return that value?
First, Diaz allowed a lot of traffic on the basepaths at the end of games. The first component of his high WHIP was his walk rate. Diaz has struggled with walks in both of his big-league seasons with a career 12.8% walk rate, which is one of the highest in baseball.
The second is his batted-ball profile. He doesn’t allow much contact, but the contact he does allow is very hard. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate were both around the bottom 30 percent of baseball to go with a dangerous 18-degree launch angle. His 3.76 SIERA suggests that he got lucky in terms of not realizing damage based on the contact he allowed.
Additionally, Diaz would not have been an All-Star if his first half and second half had been switched. Diaz was excellent in the first half of the season but posted a poor 4.61 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and 20.3% strikeout rate in 27 1/3 second-half innings pitched.
There weren’t any discernible differences in velocity or spin rate on either of his pitches, so the vast difference is puzzling. Regardless, the entire half-season of poor performance is concerning.
Diaz’s role should be pretty secure heading into 2024 given his overall performance last season and the lack of other options in the Reds bullpen. The trouble for fantasy managers will be guessing which Diaz they’ll be drafting, the All-Star or the complete bust. They would likely be able to find a replacement off the waiver wire if things went completely off the rails, but would be a tough pill to swallow for a top-100 pick.
Jose Leclerc, Texas Rangers
ADP: 200
Jose Leclerc is not a new name when it comes to fantasy baseball. The 30-year-old first spent time as the Rangers closer back in 2018 but has never been able to take a firm grasp of the role. This includes the 2023 regular season when he posted a 2.68 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 28.8% strikeout rate but only converted four of nine save opportunities.
He flipped that script in the playoffs, converting four of five save opportunities to help the Rangers win the World Series. He is currently being drafted as the Rangers closer, but should fantasy managers place their trust in him?
Like Diaz, Leclerc has always had issues with putting runners on for free. His career walk rate sits at 13.7%, and his 2023 mark was only slightly better at 12.0%. This seems to be the biggest preventative from him taking over the role full-time, as his strikeout stuff is great and he does a good job avoiding contact.
The Rangers’ offseason signings also indicate they may not be convinced with Leclerc. The team signed free agents Kirby Yates and David Robertson, both of whom have closing experience. Robertson specifically racked up 18 saves last season for the Mets and Marlins. The Rangers were able to navigate the regular season without Leclerc playing a key role, which doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in him despite his playoff success.
Trying to predict a team’s closer based on playoff performance alone is tough, especially when that player did not serve as a closer during the regular season and when the team brings in competition during the offseason.
Leclerc does have plenty of ability despite his walks, but injuries and the lack of team trust have not allowed him to fill the role fully. He could end up running away with the position, but that is a big if for fantasy managers to buy into.
Kenley Jansen, Boston Red Sox
ADP: 161
Kenley Jansen (lat) may not be as elite as he once was, but he still serves as a higher-end fantasy option. The 36-year-old picked up 29 saves last season with a 3.63 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 27.7% strikeout rate. Could this be the season when things start to go downhill?
There are some signs that things may already be trending down for Jansen. His batted-ball profile is a good starting point. Jansen allowed a career-high average exit velocity and hard-hit rate in 2023, which could help explain his .313 BABIP compared to a .267 career mark. Additionally, his 27.7% strikeout rate is still good but was the lowest of his career.
Finally, there is team context to consider. The Red Sox finished last in the American League East in 2023 and have yet to make many big moves this offseason. One key signing they did make was closer Liam Hendriks (elbow), who is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery. Hendriks has expressed that he hopes to return to the team around the middle of the season.
If he can come back at that time, Jansen could be a potential trade candidate. This does not mean he wouldn’t close for another team, but the unknown is still something to be wary of. Jansen is one of baseball’s great closers, but he is getting older, which can impact injuries and performance. While it is unlikely that Jansen will simply implode, there are some signs of decreased performance and his team context could change in the middle of the season.
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