X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

3 Outfield Breakouts Due For Regression In Fantasy Baseball (2024)

James Outman - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects News

Kevin looks at three fantasy baseball outfielders who had breakout performances and are likely to regress in 2024. Be cautious about drafting these players.

Every year, a new crop of expected and unexpected breakout performances emerges. Some surges are the result of blossoming prospects finally hitting their stride, while others may be late bloomers who are finally figuring out the major league level.

In other cases, the breakout season may have more to do with luck. Whether the result of hot streaks, outlier performance, or other extenuating circumstances, something about the success of these players may not be sustainable. Predicting whether past strong performance is consistent with a player’s fantasy value going forward is a crucial part of the draft strategy.

This article will explore several outfielders who excelled beyond their ADP in 2023 and unfold why they might take a step back this season. The players on this list are not without fantasy value going forward, though they did outperform themselves last year, and their perceived value may now be inflated.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Lane Thomas, Washington Nationals

Lane Thomas was a rare bright spot in the mediocre Washington Nationals lineup last season. The outfielder slashed .268/.315/.468 with 28 home runs and 20 stolen bases across 156 games played. Entering his age-28 season, Thomas should continue to find success, though there’s enough reason to believe regression is headed his way.

At the center of the argument is Thomas’ uninspiring batted ball metrics. He produced just an 88.5 MPH average exit velocity and a 40.7% hard-hit rate in 2023. That amounts to a middling .255 xBA and .436 xSLG. These aren’t bad numbers, but Thomas' underlying numbers are closer to average across the board, and the 28-home run total he reached last season is unlikely to be repeated this year.

Given a more grounded view of Thomas' hitting ability, running is his greatest offensive asset, ranking in the 94th percentile for sprint speed. Unfortunately, his ability to consistently get on base significantly hinders the associated upside. Thomas generated a weak 5.3% walk rate last season. That, mixed with a .255 xBA, amounts to a below-average .319 xwOBA – significantly regressing from the .334 wOBA mark he ended up with at the season's end.

Thomas is certainly a capable stolen base threat, but he may not be on base frequently enough to utilize it, and he has only attempted 48 total stolen bases in his five-year career. The numbers suggest that Thomas had a ceiling performance in many aspects last season. He should remain a productive fantasy asset in 2024, though regression feels like the most likely outcome.

 

James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers

James Outman is coming off of an impressive rookie campaign in 2023. Over 151 games played, he produced a .248/.353/.437 slash line. That includes 23 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a third-place finish for the National League Rookie of the Year award. The 26-year-old figures to have an everyday role in the back end of a loaded Los Angeles Dodgers batting order, though he may not maintain the same level of productivity in 2024.

In contradiction to Outman’s offensive surge last season, many of the underlying metrics are not so encouraging. That includes a .228 xBA, alongside similarly underwhelming numbers, like a .396 xSLG, 87.9 MPH average exit velocity, and a 39.9% hard-hit rate. His 12% walk rate is impressive, but combined with overperformance in batting average and power output, that amounts to a middling .325 xwOBA – a noteworthy departure from Outman’s .344 wOBA.

Another concern with Outman’s approach is an inability to put the bat on the ball consistently. Undoubtedly, his plate discipline is mature, chasing on only 25.3% of pitches out of the zone. However, that becomes less effective in combination with a horrendous 36.6% whiff rate and 31.9% strikeout rate. Outman is walking or striking out on close to half of his plate appearances, and with unspectacular batted-ball metrics, the fantasy value here might be overrated.

As with Lane Thomas, there remains worthwhile fantasy appeal with Outman. He is only 26 years old and part of a lineup that will score plenty of runs. That said, unless Outman can improve on his contact metrics, it seems likely his offensive production will take a step backward.

 

Christopher Morel, Chicago Cubs

Christopher Morel was on a torrid pace to begin last season. His 2023 started in Triple-A, where he smashed 11 home runs over 29 games played with a 180 wRC+. As hype grew, Morel was soon promoted to the Chicago Cubs’ major league roster, and he immediately delivered nine home runs in his first 12 appearances. By June's arrival, Morel’s reputation as one of baseball’s premier power hitters was cemented.

While the impression Morel made during the spring still resonates, the reality is that his contributions were largely concentrated. He finished the campaign with a respectable .247/.313/.508 slash line alongside 26 home runs over 107 games played. Overall, that puts Morel on a nearly 40-home run pace in a 150-game campaign. However, if we exclude his nine home runs in the 12-game stretch as an outlier, then the remaining sample size puts Morel in the 25-30 home run range, given a full season.

When Morel makes contact, the power is undeniable. The problem is that making contact is far from a given. Morel strikes out at a generous 31% rate, made worse by a subpar 28.9% chase rate and a horrific 37% whiff rate. He’s aggressive to a fault, swinging at first pitches 41.7% of the time, way above the league average of 29.6%. It’s probably just a side of Morel’s game that fantasy managers will have to accept, but it’s far from ideal. If he can't improve on his plate discipline, opposing pitchers will certainly adapt accordingly.

Nearly every projection model agrees that Morel will take a step back in 2024. Still, fantasy managers can expect him to be a key contributor in the Cubs batting order. With an already established everyday playing role, Morel should finally receive a full season workload. His counting stats will probably resemble the numbers he put up last year, though at a less efficient pace.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Kerry Carpenter

Leaves Game with Apparent Hamstring Injury
Day'Ron Sharpe

Heads to Free Agency
Santi Aldama

Receives Qualifying Offer
Moritz Wagner

has Team Option Declined
Jabari Smith Jr.

Signs Massive Extension
Jusuf Nurkić

Hornets Trading Jusuf Nurkic to Utah
Collin Sexton

Heading to Charlotte
Cam Thomas

Set for Restricted Free Agency
Bobby Portis

Staying in Milwaukee
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
James Harden

Clippers Agree on a New Contract
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Oneil Cruz

Smacks Two Homers
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
Petr Mrazek

Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers, Dealing With Back Issue
Claude Giroux

Signs One-Year Deal with Senators
Yordan Alvarez

has Chance to Return Next Weekend
Julius Randle

Signs Three-Year Extension
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Opts into Player Option
Luis Robert Jr.

Heads to Injured List
Gabriel Arias

Carted Off on Sunday
Bryce Harper

Faces Live Pitching
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Remains Out on Sunday
Utah Jazz

Bojan Bogdanovic Retiring From Basketball
Dorian Finney-Smith

Declines Player Option
Jaylin Williams

Signing Three-Year Extension
LeBron James

Accepts Player Option
Anfernee Simons

"a Possible Re-Trade Candidate"
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Yordan Alvarez

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
Kevin Porter Jr.

Declining Player Option
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Quinn Priester

Fans 11 in One-Hit Gem
Garrett Temple

Returning to Toronto
Nicolas Batum

Declines Player Option
Spencer Schwellenbach

Dominant in Victory
Keon Johnson

Gets Team Option Picked Up
Rayan Rupert

Staying in Portland
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Out of Lineup Saturday
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Garrett Mitchell

to Undergo Shoulder Surgery
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez in Guardians Lineup on Saturday
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Cody Ware

Rarely Enough Attrition at Atlanta for Cody Ware to Seriously Contend
Ryan Blaney

Is Always Strong at Atlanta
Joey Logano

Wins Pole, Looking for Third Atlanta Win
Chase Burns

Slated to Make Next Start on Monday
Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Josh Naylor

Exits Friday's Contest Early with Neck Stiffness
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NYI

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer With No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
José Berríos

Jose Berrios Tosses Seven Scoreless Innings in Fourth Win
Nick Martinez

Flirts With No-Hitter, Settles for Win
Gary Sánchez

Gary Sanchez Homers, Reaches Five Times in Onslaught
Trea Turner

Blasts Two Homers, Steals Base
Los Angeles Angels

Ron Washington to Remain on Medical Leave for Rest of the Season
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Jihaad Campbell

to Begin at Inside Linebacker
Josh Conerly Jr.

to Play Right Tackle for Now
Tyleik Williams

Expected to Fill Big Role Right Away
Malaki Starks

Should Make an Immediate Impact
James Pearce Jr.

Impressing the Falcons
Jaxson Dart

has "Excellent" Spring
Donovan Jackson

has Inside Track on Starting Job
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
Eric Cole

Hoping for Better Times at Rocket Classic
Beau Hossler

Searching for Form at Rocket Classic
PGA

Byeong Hun An in Good Form Heading into Rocket Classic
Cameron Young

Looking For Redemption and Possible First Career Victory in Detroit
Collin Morikawa

is The Headliner This Week in Detroit For Good Reason
Si Woo Kim

Back in Competition After Last Week's Withdrawal
PGA

Alex Noren Finishes Tied For 30th at Travelers Championship
Kurt Kitayama

Misses The Cut at RBC Canadian Open
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF