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Andrew's key fantasy football WR/CB matchups for NFL playoffs Divisional Round weekend (2024). Wide receiver vs. cornerback sleepers and start em, sit em picks via his free CB ratings chart.
Welcome to the Divisional Round edition of the WR/CB Matchups article. Regular season fantasy leagues are over, but there are still plenty of opportunities to play other types of playoff contests. Hopefully, this article can help you make profitable decisions on this very intriguing four-game slate.
During the past three seasons, I have tweaked my process to make the chart more user-friendly and predictive, but NFL teams are moving receivers around more than ever in today's game. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week.
As a reminder, the process for assigning points to a specific matchup has to do with how the entire defense defends the player who lines up at one of the three spots (LWR, RWR, slot) the most. For example, in Week 1 last year, Jahan Dotson scored a TD from the LWR spot and the right slot, but all of his points were assigned to Shaquill Griffin because Griffin played primarily LCB and Dotson was the Washington receiver with the most snaps at RWR.
The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.
WR vs. CB Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.
The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on one side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green, and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up on average this year. Keep in mind that team scheme is a huge factor in points assigned to specific players. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Divisional Round
Click the image for a full-screen view
WR/CB Matchups to Target
Robert Woods didn't play much in his return from injury, but it's possible his role will grow with Noah Brown out for the playoffs. Woods, Xavier Hutchinson, and John Metchie III all played a handful of slot snaps against the Browns. Based on the data, that's the best place to attack Baltimore. I project Woods to have the best matchup.
On the other side, the Texans have been above average at limiting opposing WR groups all year, with only a few hiccups against WR1s. Zay Flowers projects to lead the team in targets, but the best on-paper matchup belongs to Odell Beckham Jr. This probably isn't a spot for an explosion game, but OBJ could put up a respectable score.
The 49ers move their receivers all around the formation, but Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel get the most snaps out wide. The best place to attack the Packers is in the slot, so any San Fran receiver could have a big day. Technically, the best matchup belongs to Jauan Jennings.
On the other side of that game, the red hot Jordan Love is in a good spot for fantasy production against the 49ers' beatable pass defense. The Packers used a five-man rotation at WR with Christian Watson back, with Romeo Doubs playing the most snaps in a huge performance. Doubs has the best on-paper matchup, but it's a decent spot for all of Watson, Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Jayden Reed, and Bo Melton.
The Bucs have been a pass funnel all year, which is good news for the Lions passing game. Jared Goff should have a big game if the stout Detroit offensive line is able to pick up pressure. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, and Jameson Williams all get upgrades.
On the other side of that game, Detroit's defense has been exploitable through the air as well. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have smash matchups, while Trey Palmer also gets a bump. If he wakes up angry again, watch out.
WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade
The Chiefs-Bills game is one of the most highly-anticipated Divisional Round matchups in the history of the NFL playoffs. However, it's very interesting that it actually only has a 45.5 total, the second-lowest on the slate. The main reason is that both defenses have been solid against the pass all year.
There will likely be some solid performances with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes facing off, but the data simply doesn't love any receiver's matchup. L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie in particular have been elite all year for the Chiefs. Khalil Shakir gets the most significant matchup downgrade.
Circling back to the Texans-Ravens showdown in Baltimore, the Texans have been particularly stingy against primary RWRs this year. It's a downgrade for Rashod Bateman.
Finally, Nico Collins has been terrific as the No. 1 target for C.J. Stroud, but this week is not the easiest matchup. He's obviously still a viable play, but Collins gets a matchup downgrade.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week. This series will continue next week for the Conference Championship games and up through the Super Bowl.
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