Breakout Fantasy Football Wide Receivers From The 2023 Season - Part 1

January 23, 2024

The 2023 fantasy football season is over and we'll now be taking a look back at some of the biggest and best breakout players at the wide receiver position.

The pool of fantasy-relevant wide receivers has never been bigger. Fantasy managers already have so many different options at the position, but each year the pool gets deeper and deeper as more and more rookies are having an immediate impact on their respective offenses and fantasy leagues alike. Over the past few years, fantasy managers have been treated to three to five rookie receivers becoming major fantasy football factors.

We’ll identify several receivers who took their game to new heights this year and crown some of the very best WR breakout performances across the league. To do this, we’ll consider the player’s fantasy football impact and value, as well as their efficiency for the actual, real NFL squads that they play on.

We’ve already covered the breakout performances from the quarterback and running back position, but here we’ll focus on eight receivers (over two different articles) who earned breakout status this past season. Be sure to look for Part 2 of the 2023 receiver breakout piece, as well as the breakout performers at tight end, which will be our final entry.

Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

Can rookies break out? That’s a legitimate question. Can you break out when you’re essentially starting from scratch? I’d argue they’re not starting from scratch, not really. Nacua was a fifth-round pick. As far as fifth-round picks go, the expectations were practically nothing. Take Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison as first-round picks, and their expectations were much higher. Did they also have excellent seasons? Of course they did. Were theirs expected? To an extent, they were.

For a rookie to break out, they need to go above and beyond what their expectations were and what their draft capital would typically dictate. Nacua certainly accomplished both aspects with flying colors. He only finished with the most receptions and receiving yards of all time for a rookie receiver.

He finished with 160 targets (seventh-most), 105 receptions (ninth-most), 1,486 yards (fourth-most), and six touchdowns (27th-most). That would have been an insane season for any first-round pick. After all, you never expect a rookie to break all-time records, but he did it as a fifth-rounder. It's incredibly rare for a rookie receiver to walk onto the field and assume the mantle of "WR1" for a team right from the start, but that's exactly what Nacua did.

Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua's last 5 games together ...

Kupp
* 44 targets
* 32 catches
* 344 yards
* 4 TDs
* 90.1 PPR points

Nacua
* 43 targets
* 28 catches
* 521 yards
* 2 TDs
* 99.9 PPR points

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) January 8, 2024

He registered the 11th-highest target share (28.7%) and the sixth-best targets per route run rate (29.1%). He commanded volume from day one. Even after Cooper Kupp returned, Nacua continued to maintain an elite-level target share. It wasn’t just the volume that made Nacua so effective this season. He was incredibly efficient across the board. The following statistics are compiled from receivers with at least 50 targets this past season.

• Seventh-Highest YAC Per Reception (6.0)
• Sixth-Highest Yard Per Route Run Average (2.72)
• Ninth-Highest Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (2.55)
• 20th-Highest Yard Per Target Average (9.3)
• 22nd-Highest Yard Per Reception Average (14.2)
• 16th-Most Air Yards (1,446)

We’ve now covered how effective he was for the Rams and with numbers like those, it’s no surprise that he dominated for fantasy managers, too. He finished as the WR9 in half-PPR with a 14.6 PPG average.

He had nine weeks where he finished as a top-15 receiver. In the first seven weeks of the season, he provided fantasy managers with five top-12 weekly performances. He also did quite well in the fantasy playoffs. He scored 28.5 half-PPR points in Week 16 (WR3) and 16.2 half-PPR points in Week 17 (WR13).

Nacua is legit. There should be zero concerns about him being a one-hit wonder or falling off in 2024. With numbers as elite and impressive as they were this past season, Nacua is here to stay. He should be viewed as a top-12 receiver entering the 2024 season, especially with the WR-King back under center in Los Angeles, Matthew Stafford. Nacua’s best season may yet be in the years ahead.

D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears

Moore has had plenty of seasons where he has been very good. In fact, he went over 1,100 scrimmage yards in three straight seasons from 2019-2021. He was often viewed as a mid-WR2 with upside, but prior to 2023, he had never made good on all of that potential. This past season, Moore finally broke out and gave fantasy managers the outcome they always thought was possible.

Moore finished as the WR10 with a 14.4 half-PPR PPG average. However, if we eliminate Weeks 6-10, which were the weeks where Justin Fields got hurt and didn’t play, Moore’s half-PPR PPG average jumps to 17.5, which would have been the WR3 and a full PPG better than Amon-Ra St. Brown.

In the 11 contests that Fields started and finished, Moore had six top-12 performances. He scored 11 or more points in eight of those 11 games. While he struggled in Weeks 15-16, the first two weeks of the fantasy playoffs, scoring just 7.2 and 3.3 points respectively, he dominated in Week 17. He scored 26.4 half-PPR points for fantasy managers in the championship game, finishing as the WR3 for that week. From a fantasy perspective, Moore broke out. He had been stuck in that mid-WR2 to WR3 range for most of his career but exploded for a top-10 finish, which would’ve been even better without the quarterback injury.

From the Chicago Bears’ perspective, Moore couldn’t have been much better either. He set career highs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. He finished with 136 targets (15th-most), 96 receptions (12th-most), 1,364 yards (sixth-most), and eight touchdowns (tied for sixth-most). That is an amazing season, but honestly, it gets even better. This is where Moore ranked among receivers with at least 50 targets:

• 21st-Highest Yard Per Reception Average (14.2)
• Seventh-Highest Yard Per Target Average (10.0)
• 13th-Highest YAC Per Reception Average (5.6)
• Ninth-Highest Receptions Per Broken Tackle Rate (1 Broken Tackle Every 10.7 Receptions)
• 16th-Lowest Drop Rate (2.9%)
• 10th-Highest Target Share (28.9%)
• Eighth-Highest Air Yards Share (38.9%)
• 14th-Most Air Yards (1,479)
• 16th-Highest Yard Per Route Run Average (2.34)
• Fifth-Highest Yards Per Team Pass Attempt Average (2.66)
• Eighth-Highest Contested Catch Rate (59.3%)

That is complete and utter dominance. He was one of the best receivers across the board in 2023 and gave Chicago a true WR1. He was an alpha receiver in every sense of the word and was the catalyst for Chicago's offense. Moore and Chicago's offseason will certainly be one to watch. Will they trade Justin Fields? Will they draft Caleb Williams or Marvin Harrison Jr.?

If the team continues to build around Fields and drafts Harrison, Moore's value would take a hit and he'd likely drop to that of a mid-WR2 again. If they keep Fields and draft a receiver in the second round or later, Moore should once again be a top-12 receiver. If they trade Fields and draft Williams, Moore should also be ranked as a top-12 receiver.

The team also just hired a new offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, previously of the Seattle Seahawks. In this sense, it likely cannot get any worse than what the team endured in 2023. However, once again, there are a lot of moving parts in Chicago. How all these different elements play out will determine just how high Moore's 2024 ranking will be.

One thing is for certain: Moore proved to be one of the best receivers in the league. He had a true breakout campaign with only average quarterback play. If Chicago drafts Williams and centers their passing attack around Moore, he could have a top-five finish in his future.

George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers

If fantasy managers look at where Pickens finished for fantasy football, they may not fully appreciate the kind of season he had. However, Pickens had a full-blown breakout season, and if the Steelers had a quarterback who was closer to Derek Carr (a very low bar) and not Zach Wilson (the kind of quarterback play they received), Pickens may have fulfilled his fantasy promise. So, while Pickens may not have fully made good on his fantasy breakout, we’re going to make an exception because his lack of fantasy success wasn’t so much his fault.

Pickens finished the season as the WR26 with an 11.1 half-PPR PPG average. That may not seem like a breakout performance, but again, there was only so much he could do given his situation. The Steelers passing game finished with these numbers:

• 29th in Pass Attempts
• 21st in Completion Percentage
• 25th in Passing Yards
• 30th in Passing Touchdowns
• 23rd in Yards Per Attempt
• 21st in Quarterback Rating
• 28th in Total Points Scored
• 25th in Total Yards Gained

With that level of ineptitude on offense and at the quarterback position, there’s only so much a receiver can do. Not surprisingly, Pickens was a boom-or-bust pass-catcher this season. He had four top-12 weekly performances, two top-25 finishes, and nine weeks where he finished below WR40. However, Pickens showed up and showed out in the fantasy playoffs. He scored 33.5 half-PPR points in Week 16 (WR2) and 16.6 half-PPR points in Week 17 (WR11).

While some of Pickens’ efficiency stats aren’t nearly as good as Moore and Nacua, it’s important to keep in mind just how poorly of a situation he was dealing with. Pickens finished with 106 targets (28th-most) and 63 receptions (36th), but still managed to finish with 1,140 yards (16th-most). He did this by having the highest yards-per-reception average among receivers with at least 50 targets (18.1 YPR). Considering the trio of quarterbacks he was catching the ball from -- Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph -- that deserves some major props right there.

Only 4 WR’s in NFL HISTORY have posted 60+ receptions & averaged 18.0+ YPR in a season by age 22.

⁃ Randy Moss
⁃ Josh Gordon
⁃ Ja’Marr Chase
⁃ George Pickens

George Pickens is an ELITE deep-threat. pic.twitter.com/KS49j3YSiJ

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) January 12, 2024

He also averaged 10.8 yards per target, which trailed only Brandon Aiyuk and Nico Collins. He was a menace after the catch, averaging 6.2 yards. That was the seventh-best number among receivers with at least 50 targets. Since just 68.9% of his targets were deemed catchable, which ranked 61st among receivers, it was a good thing Pickens was so sure-handed because he didn’t get a lot of opportunities. His 1.9% drop rate was the sixth-lowest.

Looking towards 2024, fantasy managers can see plenty of untapped potential. He had 1,428 air yards (18th-most) and a 37.8% air yard share (15th), but still managed to finish with the 16th-most unrealized air yards (676). Give him a quarterback who is more accurate and Pickens could easily take another step forward next season. Despite his quarterbacks' inefficiencies, Pickens still managed to have a very impressive yards per route run average of 2.20, which was the 17th-highest, and averaged 2.25 yards per team pass attempt (11th-best).

In some ways, you could argue Pickens already broke out in 2023. The problem was that due to the offensive system and quarterback he was playing with, it largely went unnoticed. This wouldn’t be so dissimilar to DJ Moore all those years ago in Carolina.

What that means is Pickens is a player to buy moving forward. He should be on every fantasy manager’s WR2 radar, even though he’ll most likely find himself on that WR2/WR3 line. If Pittsburgh is able to improve their quarterback position, Pickens could end up being a real steal.

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers

Reed was drafted in the middle of the second round. The Packers selected Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson last season and were expected by many to lead the Packers’ group of receivers. The team was also making a major quarterback change, going from future first-ballot Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love in his first year as a starter. Needless to say, there were plenty of questions about Love, his ability to lead this offense, and about the Packers in general. The expectations of Reed were fairly low, but what he ended up accomplishing far exceeded what NFL fans and fantasy managers were anticipating.

Reed finished his rookie season with 94 targets, 64 receptions, 793 yards, and eight touchdowns. That may not seem like a full breakout, but considering how this offense was viewed going into the season, it’s pretty darn good. Since 2000, there have been 109 receivers drafted in the second round. Only 21 or 19.2% had more than 85 targets in their rookie seasons. Only 12 or 11.0% had more than 60 receptions. Only 19 or 17.4% had more than 750 yards. Reed was also used as a runner. He added an additional 119 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

Among all second-round rookie receivers since 2000, Reed ranks 10th with the most scrimmage yards (912) and second for total touchdowns (10). Only 11 (10.0%) of those 109 receivers had more than 900 scrimmage yards. I think it’s safe to say that he very much exceeded rookie expectations for a second-rounder, especially considering no one thought much of his landing spot being super friendly.

Jayden Reed posted a second-half-of-rookie-season breakout that was pretty similar to Tyreek Hill's (2016)

Playmaker --- going to be a foundational piece of the Packers offense for years to come. pic.twitter.com/RiiHW948mO

— Curtis Patrick (@CPatrickNFL) January 4, 2024

His counting stats look even more impressive when you consider that he missed one game, had just a 56.8% snap share (82nd among receivers), and just a 69.6% route participation rate (78th). His 24.4% targets per route run rate ranked 26th among all receivers and makes Reed one of the more exciting receivers to look forward to for the 2024 season. If his snap share and route participation rate increases, which there’s no reason to expect it won’t, Reed could take another significant step forward. He was very efficient with his opportunities, finishing with a 2.06 yards per route run average, which ranked 27th among all receivers.

Reed finished as the WR23 with an 11.5 half-PPR PPG average. However, like most rookies, he got much better as the season rolled along. Following the team’s Week 6 bye, Reed increased his PPG average in the second half of the season to 13.1. From Weeks 7-17, this half-PPR PPG average ranked as the WR14.

He had four top-12 weekly performances and another four top-25 performances. Reed really turned it on at the end of the season for fantasy managers. In Week 14, he scored 16.5 half-PPR points (WR8 finish). He was the WR19 in Week 15 with 14.2 half-PPR points. He was inactive for Week 16 but returned for championship week and scored 23.9 half-PPR points en route to a WR4 finish. From Weeks 14-17, his 18.2 half-PPR PPG average was the fourth-best among receivers.

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