RADIO
Hunter Brown 2024 Outlook: Undeniable Talent but No Guarantee of Fantasy Production
11 months agoA surface-level analysis would suggest that Hunter Brown is a great sleeper for 2024. His 5.09 ERA masked a 3.52 xFIP across his 155⅔ IP, his 26.8 K% and 8.3 BB% were solid, and his .330 BABIP, 68.8% strand rate, and 21% HR/FB appear primed for positive regression. Brown also pitches for Houston, so improvement on last season's 11-13 record seems likely. Unfortunately, Brown's stuff doesn't support last season's peripherals. His fastball averaged 95.7 mph, but its 2,240-RPM spin rate rendered it average by results (8.8 SwStr%, 57.1 Zone%). His slider behaved like more of a fastball than a breaking pitch with a 9.3 SwStr%, 54.8 Zone%, and 23.9% chase rate. Brown's changeup had a 14.6 SwStr% but lacked consistency with a 33.8 Zone% and 24.4% chase rate, and his curve was similar with a 15 SwStr% but 39 Zone% and 34.5% chase rate. It's certainly possible that Brown enjoys a breakout campaign in his age-25 season, but it's just as likely his K% declines and he becomes more of an innings eater. Brown's ADP of 190.62 is comparable to other promising yet uncertain arms such as Bryan Woo (189.14) and Nick Pivetta (190.37), so Brown is appropriately priced.
