RADIO
Benjamin looks at top MLB prospect risers for fantasy baseball for AFL Week 4. He shares his minor league hitters and pitchers to know as fantasy and dynasty sleepers.
The Arizona Fall League (AFL) is now one-third of the way through the season. The league has had 12 game days played, with 20 left to play, not including the Fall Stars game and Home Run Derby on November 4-5 and the playoffs on November 10-11. Though there have been three weeks of play done, huge weeks can swing a player's evaluation already, with Cleveland's Kyle Manzardo being the best example this year so far.
This week's batch of players are guys who are in Arizona to change position/role going forward in their development or are working to carve out a future platoon/bench/bullpen role. These names aren't likely guys who will be fantasy starters, but many of these types of players will be among those who make the jump from the 2023 Arizona Fall League to MLB rosters in 2024, and a guy getting major league time is always someone to know for potential use in deep leagues and/or AL-only or NL-only leagues.
Look here for insight on potential fantasy baseball dynasty league pickups before they hit and to get to know players as they ascend to the major leagues!
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Top Hitter Prospects
Statistical highlights (through Sunday, October 22):
- On-Base Percentage: 1. Liam Hicks .574, 2. James Triantos .525, 3. Sterlin Thompson .492, 4. Jakob Marsee .486, 5. Caleb Durbin .483.
- Runs scored: 1. Gabriel Rincones 18, 2. Jacob Hurtubise 16, 3 (tie). Kyle Manzardo and Damiano Palmegiani 15.
Hitter Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Caleb Durbin, 2B/3B, New York Yankees
The Atlanta Braves drafted Durbin in the 14th round of the 2021 draft out of the University of Washington-St. Louis. The Yankees acquired Durbin from the Braves in an offseason deal that sent lefty reliever Lucas Luetge to Atlanta and brought Durbin and hard-throwing reliever Indigo Diaz back. Many figured that Diaz would bring the Yankees the most value in the deal, but Durbin went about things the way he had thus far in his pro career – under the radar and consistently.
Durbin's 5'6" height has allowed him to be overlooked (pun not intended) for most of his pro career. In his first full season in 2022, Durbin jumped across both A-ball levels in the Braves organization, slashing .241/.352/.372 with eight home runs and 31 stolen bases, posting an impressive 50/50 BB/K ratio. This season was much of the same when he was on the field. Durbin played just 69 games in the year across High-A and Double-A. Durbin slashed .304/.395/.427 with four home runs and 36 stolen bases along with a 26/18 BB/K.
He's posted similar numbers in Arizona, showing above-average speed, excellent base running instincts, and walking more than he strikes out. After playing around the infield in his pro career thus far, he's focused on second base only in Arizona. At the keystone, Durbin would bring an above-average arm for the position and excellent hands that could allow him to be a steady player for a big-league club.
VERDICT: Durbin's skillset is not sexy at all, but he can get on base and has speed. While he profiles well defensively at second, he can handle all the infield positions. It may be difficult for him to earn a starting role in New York, but he's the type of guy who could be a 20th-ranked 2B if he ended up taking over due to injury. There's no reason to roster right now, but the type of guy to watch if injuries hit the Yankees infield in 2024.
Gabriel Rincones, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
After being drafted in the 19th round in 2021 by the San Diego Padres out of Junior College, Rincones bet on himself and went to Florida Atlantic. The gamble paid off, as Rincones hit .346/.451/.658 with 19 home runs in 58 games. The Phillies selected him in the fourth round.
Rincones didn't make his pro debut until this season, and the Phillies played him across both A-ball levels, where he slashed .248/.351/.427 with 15 home runs and 32 stolen bases. He also had an 11.4% walk rate and a 25.1% strikeout rate. Thus far, he's outperforming that line in Arizona with a .327/.462/.577 line. He has two home runs and eight steals in 14 games, posting a 12/16 BB/K rate.
The Phillies certainly are curious about what they have with Rincones as the plate discipline has been better than advertised and his intelligence on the basepaths has allowed Rincones to tally plenty of steals despite fringe-average speed. His arm on defense is below average, so he's really a left-field profile or may have to move to first base long-term.
VERDICT: Rincones profiles as a strong-side platoon player with defensive limitations. He could tap more into his plus raw power and become slightly more than that, but he's exhibited notable struggles against left-handed pitching, so the platoon role is probably his future role. No reason to roster him until he shows success in the upper levels at a defensive position.
Jase Bowen, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates drafted Bowen out of high school in Ohio in the 11th round of the 2019 draft. After a 36-game audition in complex league in his draft year, where he hit .223/.301/.315, Bowen lost the 2020 season to the pandemic. The versatile Bowen played second, center, left, and right in that debut, showing his raw athleticism and potential for a future role as a utility player.
Bowen posted a .220/.309/.384 line at Single-A in 2021 with 14 home runs and 16 steals. He then had a similar performance across both A-ball levels in 2022, hitting .256/.325/.422 with 17 home runs and 25 steals. This season, he made his way up to Double-A, posting a similar line, slashing .255/.327/.467 with 23 home runs and 26 stolen bases. While he didn't play second in 2023, he was the rare player who had extended time at first base and center field.
In the AFL, Bowen has been playing similar defensive assignments, with five games at first base and 10 games at outfield positions, spread across all three outfield spots. Bowen was a highly-recruited football player in high school, and his raw athleticism still shines with raw power and raw speed.
VERDICT: Bowen has definitely been told to refine his eye to improve his future stock, and he's been walking at a rate nearly 2% higher than his career minor league rate in Arizona. If he can get on base consistently, his power/speed combination could earn a utility spot that earns four to five starts per week across multiple positions. Let him be for now, but keep an eye on his early performance in 2024 as the walk rate improvement could lead to a quick promotion to Pittsburgh.
Peyton Wilson, 2B, Kansas City Royals
Alabama native Wilson went undrafted out of high school, so he went to the University of Alabama. After two seasons of solid, albeit not spectacular production, slashing .295/.360/.457 over 70 games with nine homers and 11 steals, Wilson was selected by the Royals in the second competitive balance round in the 2021 draft. He worked his way up to Single-A in his pro debut, slashing .216/.341/.392 with nine extra-base hits and seven steals.
Wilson played all of 2022 with High-A Quad Cities, slashing .268/.359/.456 with 14 home runs and 23 stolen bases while splitting time between second base and center field. In 2023, Wilson spent the whole year in Double-A, hitting .286/.366/.411 with 44 extra-base hits and 19 steals. So far in Arizona, Wilson has hit .265/.403/.490 with five doubles and two home runs.
Wilson's a switch-hitter so he can offer tremendous skill off the bench, though the Royals seem to want him to spend time in the outfield to allow him to be more flexible going forward. He has played more games in the outfield in the AFL already than he did the entire season with Northwest Arkansas.
VERDICT: The profile of high-floor, low-upside that Wilson carries for fantasy owners is a type that the Royals have developed tremendously well in recent years. If he can get on base and show himself viable in multiple spots, he could be the type to end up as the 20th-ranked 2B in a season when he ends up taking over due to injury. However, for now, leave him be.
Will Robertson, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
After hitting .300/.380/.435 in the Cape Cod League in 2018 and .311/.408/.599 with 15 home runs in the 2019 season for Creighton, Robertson was selected in the fourth round of the 2019 draft. He got to play short-season ball in his draft season, posting a .268/.365/.404 line with six home runs over 61 games. He then lost the 2020 season to the pandemic.
Robertson struggled with injuries in 2021, slashing .239/.323/.402 primarily playing at High-A, powering out six home runs over 60 games, but striking out at a 28.6% rate. The 2022 season brought more battling with injuries, but after 96 games, Robertson had made his way up to Double-A. He slashed .227/.300/.433 with 15 home runs, striking out 28% of the time.
The 2023 season was a full season for Robertson, hitting .245/.323/.488 with 19 home runs. He did see his walk rate jump two percent and his strikeout rate drop 1.5%. He's continued that progress in the AFL, with a lower strikeout rate and nearly double the walk rate as he's slashed .250/.421/.455.
VERDICT: Robertson has legit raw plus power, and he has shown to have even splits against left- and right-handed pitchers, but his defensive abilities are below average, which could make his future role questionable. He's not a guy to roster quite yet, but he could move up quickly to a corner outfield/DH role if he can translate the improved eye in Arizona to the regular season in 2024.
Corey Rosier, OF, Boston Red Sox
After not being drafted in the shortened 2020 draft out of Chipola College, Rosier transferred to UNC-Greensboro, where he put up a .354/.434/.604 slash line with 12 home runs and 17 steals over 52 games. His performance drew the attention of multiple MLB teams, and the Seattle Mariners drafted him in the 12th round of the 2021 draft. He did make it to Single-A in his draft year in the M's system, hitting .380/.451/.570 over 32 games with three home runs and 13 steals.
The Mariners dealt Rosier and reliever Ray Kerr to the San Diego Padres for Adam Frazier in the offseason after his draft season, but Rosier didn't even complete the 2022 season in the Padres' system. He was dealt along with Max Ferguson as part of the prospects to entice Boston to take on the remainder of Eric Hosmer's salary. Combined, Rosier's 2022 season line was .242/.359/.371 with seven home runs and 40 steals. He also walked at a 14% clip and struck out just 21% of the time.
In 2023, Rosier played across Double-A and Triple-A, putting together his best pro season as he hit .285/.351/.431 with seven home runs and 49 steals. The walk rate dropped notably while the strikeout rate remained roughly the same. However, with him knocking on the door of the majors, the Red Sox sent him out to the AFL to work on his eye at the plate. He's done well, with a 7/8 BB/K over 59 plate appearances thus far.
VERDICT: Rosier has elite, double-plus speed but he gets very poor jumps defensively and he has a below-average arm, so he'll likely be stuck as a fourth outfielder or perhaps a poor defensive left fielder. As enticing as the stolen base totals could be, Rosier is in a system with a lot of guys with a similar profile, so no need to roster him until a spot is opened up for him.
Top Pitcher Prospects
Statistical highlights:
- Batting average allowed: 1. Jose Romero .045, 2. Davis Daniel .113, 3. Case Williams .138, 4. Braden Nett .140, 5. Thaddeus Ward .161.
- Games pitched: 1 (tie). Stevie Emanuels, Bradley Hanner, Trey McLoughlin, Jack Perkins, Jake Pilarski, Kevin Stevens, and Yunior Tur 6.
Pitcher Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack
Jordan Carr, SP, Minnesota Twins
After three tough seasons with UNC-Asheville, Carr transferred to College of Charleston and was on his way to potentially earning himself a late draft selection before COVID-19 ended the 2020 season with him holding a 3.60 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 25 innings with 24 strikeouts.
After going undrafted in the truncated 2020 draft, Carr returned to Charleston, but he struggled to a 4.52 ERA and 1.51 WHIP over 61 2/3 innings. He signed with an independent team and posted a 1.38 ERA over 26 innings before the Twins signed him as an undrafted free agent. He posted a 3.00 ERA over nine innings in complex ball, all out of the bullpen.
Carr spent all of 2022 in Single-A, making 14 appearances, 10 of them as a starter, tossing 61 innings with a 3.84 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, posting a 42/11 K/BB. He then split 2023 between High-A Cedar Rapids and Double-A Wichita. Overall, he made 22 appearances, seven of them starts, with a 2.15 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and a 66/22 K/BB rate in 71 innings. He's started each time out in Arizona, posting a 1.50 ERA over 12 innings with a 0.83 WHIP and a 7/1 K/BB ratio.
The lefty Carr doesn't work with elite fastball velocity, but he gets late sink on the pitch, which is why he's allowed just nine home runs over 141 pro innings thus far. He works with a mix of secondary pitches that also encourage contact, meaning that Carr will likely rely on excellent command and the defense behind him, similar to Colin McHugh.
VERDICT: Like McHugh, Carr is likely not a full-time starter at the major league level. He'll head back to Double-A to open 2024, but his future role is likely a swingman/multi-inning reliever from the left side, so not a lot of fantasy value.
Kendall Williams, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
A 6'6" righty out of prestigious IMG Academy in Florida, Williams was one of the top high school prospects in the 2019 draft, going to the Toronto Blue Jays in the second round. He made a big splash with his pro debut, going 16 innings, allowing a 1.13 ERA and 0.81 WHIP, striking out 19. The 2020 season was wiped out for Williams, as it was for everyone in the minors. He did have a major move in his pro career, as the Dodgers acquired Williams and Ryan Noda by sending Ross Stripling to Toronto.
Williams spent his first season in the Dodgers system at Single-A Rancho Cucamonga, posting a 4.53 ERA over 93 1/3 innings with a 1.37 WHIP and an 87/22 K/BB rate. In 2022, he pitched across both A-ball clubs for the Dodgers, throwing 110 1/3 innings with a 4.32 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and a 96/53 K/BB. He fought off injury during 2023, making just 17 appearances and tossing 79 2/3 innings. He still had his best full season with a 3.73 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, posting a 62/39 K/BB.
Home runs have been a bugaboo until this season for Williams, as he has a strong four-pitch repertoire, but the added velocity simply hasn't come for Williams as was expected. He keys his pitch mix with a low-90s fastball most of the time, though it's worked more toward the mid-90s in short bursts. He's struggled with the long ball in Arizona, allowing four in just 11 2/3 innings so far.
VERDICT: It's hard to doubt the Dodgers' development system, but Williams simply hasn't taken the step forward many expected in his raw stuff. Williams would require pinpoint control to succeed, but he's not shown that. Leave him be for now.
Jayvien Sandridge, RP, Cincinnati Reds
Sandridge may have the worst story of the pandemic. After being drafted in the 32nd round by the Baltimore Orioles, Sandridge passed over college to join the Baltimore organization. He tossed 26 games and 31 innings of relief in two seasons of complex ball in 2018-2019. Over that time, he posted a 3.48 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 25.2% strikeout rate, and 17% walk rate. The lefty was then released in 2020 in a large-scale cut of minor league players during the pandemic by the Orioles.
Sandridge utilized an exemption for players to return to college, pitching for Division II Lynn in 2021. He went undrafted, but the Cincinnati Reds signed him, and he struck out 12 over nine innings in complex ball. The Reds pitched Sandridge across both A-ball levels in 2022, making 28 appearances and throwing 40 2/3 innings, with a 3.10 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 67/35 K/BB. The high walk rate continued in 2023 as Sandridge worked up to Double-A, with a 3.71 ERA over 63 innings of relief, posting a 91/51 K/BB.
The 6'5" lefty works with a heavy mid-90s fastball and one of the most impressive left-handed split-finger pitches that you'll ever see, but he struggles to locate the latter in the zone consistently, though he still generates plenty of swing and miss. He offers a slider, but it has an inconsistent shape along with his control issues. Interestingly, Sandridge has been in better control in the AFL so far than he's offered anywhere before, with an 11/2 K/BB ratio over 5 2/3 innings of relief, and the improved control has led to a 1.59 ERA and 0.88 WHIP.
VERDICT: If he can keep his walk rate even just below 10% with his raw stuff, Sandridge could be a middle reliever worth rostering due to the high strikeout numbers, but he needs to show he can sustain that in 2024. He will likely open the year in Double-A. If he does, you can roster him as he reaches the majors, otherwise, leave him be for now.
CJ Van Eyk, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
The Mets drafted Van Eyk in the 19th round in 2017, but the righty chose to stay in state and attend Florida State. That turned out to be an excellent choice as Van Eyk struck out 129 over 99 1/3 innings in his sophomore year before starting out 2020 with an incredible four starts that had him with a 1.31 ERA when the season was canceled due to the pandemic. The Blue Jays drafted him in the second round.
Van Eyk opened his pro career at High-A Vancouver, but it wasn't great. He made 19 starts, hurling 80 1/3 innings, posting a 5.83 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and a 100/39 K/BB. However, as he prepared for the 2022 season, Van Eyk's elbow popped, and he was knocked out for the entire 2022 season. He returned to the mound this season, but only made 12 appearances, tossing 34 1/3 innings with a 3.67 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and a 33/12 K/BB.
While Van Eyk has four pitches that can all be rated at least average, he really doesn't have a single pitch that would grade out as plus. That means that Van Eyk needs to have near-pinpoint control of his whole array of pitches, but even though he's posted a 0.79 ERA in 11 1/3 innings in the AFL, he's also walked six and struck out nine.
VERDICT: Van Eyk's fastball/curve combination could work as a reliever, but Toronto understandably is still working him as a starter where he projects at the back of a rotation. As he recovers from surgery, there's no reason to roster Van Eyk until he can build up to a full starter workload.
Emiliano Teodo, RP, Texas Rangers
Teodo showed up at a workout with a bunch of young, unpolished arms in the Dominican and earned a "late bloomer" signing just before turning 19 in January 2020 by the Rangers. He made his pro debut stateside in the Arizona complex. In 19 appearances, all in relief, he threw 29 1/3 innings with a 3.38 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and a 48/18 K/BB rate.
The 6'1" righty spent all of 2022 in Single-A, with a 3.09 ERA over 84 1/3 innings with a 1.13 WHIP and a 115/44 K/BB rate. He then moved up to High-A Hickory in 2023, though he struggled with his location, allowing his big fastball to get hit more than one would think in A-ball. He posted a 4.52 ERA over 61 2/3 innings along with a 1.40 WHIP. Teodo still had an 84/33 K/BB rate. He's moved to the bullpen full-time in Arizona, with two saves in his four appearances, posting a 12/1 K/BB over six innings.
Teodo has an incredible high-velocity fastball that can run up to 103 and sits around 98 as a starter. Working from the bullpen, he sits triple digits, which already gives him a leg up on most other pitchers. His curve is a plus pitch that generates plenty of swings as well, though he struggles to locate the pitch at times with his violent delivery.
VERDICT: It's not often that a reliever gets a roster recommendation in this space, but Teodo is a special arm in an organization that will certainly give him plenty of opportunity in the big league bullpen going into 2024. He should still only be rostered in deep dynasty leagues but could move to an add in mid-size leagues by the end of AFL.
Jordan Geber, SP, New York Mets
Geber did not attract interest coming out of high school. After struggling through four seasons at Mount St. Mary's, Geber took advantage of the additional season of eligibility granted due to the pandemic to transfer to Virginia Tech. However, Geber suffered a concussion and struggled to perform for the Hokies, posting a 5.40 ERA over 35 innings, though he did so with a 40/9 K/BB. He did not draw interest in the 2022 draft, leading to Geber pitching with Frederick in the MLB Draft League before the Mets signed him as an undrafted free agent.
The 6'3" righty reached Double-A in 2022, making seven appearances, tossing 29 innings with a 5.59 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. He notched a 28/12 K/BB rate. This season, he fought through injuries and found his role. He made 15 appearances, seven of them starts, reaching Double-A again. He hurled 62 innings with a 4.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and a 54/10 K/BB rate. So far in Arizona, he's made three starts, throwing 11 innings, with a 6.55 ERA due to an abnormally high home run rate, along with a 1.27 WHIP and a 7/3 K/BB.
Geber's arsenal is led by a high-spin fastball that sits 92-93 and touches 96 but has tremendous life at both vertical extremes of the zone, generating plenty of weak contact in both spots. He also has a breaker and change that will induce ground ball contact as well. However, he's not topped 80 innings in a year since he combined for 96 1/3 innings between his sophomore season at Mount St. Mary's and summer ball in 2019.
VERDICT: Geber's pitch mix and manner on the mound remind me a lot of Jesse Chavez. The sort of role that Chavez has carved out in his career could absolutely be Geber's best MLB fit, but he'll need to be able to pound the zone and avoid allowing plenty of home runs. No reason to pounce yet.
Check back again next week for more evaluations and look behind the numbers!
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