Do These Prospects Matter For Dynasty Baseball (AFL Week 1)? Carson Williams, Colson Montgomery, Jackson Jobe, more

October 6, 2023

Benjamin looks at top MLB prospect risers for fantasy baseball for AFL Week 1. He shares his minor league hitters and pitchers to know as fantasy and dynasty sleepers.

The regular season and postseason for Minor League Baseball are now complete, with the Norfolk Tides' 7-6 victory over the Oklahoma City Dodgers on Saturday, Sep. 30 in Las Vegas the final game of the year. During that time, we've highlighted 342 players in this space!

This week, the Arizona Fall League begins. We will continue to highlight players throughout the AFL, some who are active AFL participants and some who are prospects who simply didn't get covered among this year's mentions. 31 participants already in the AFL have been covered. We'll start the AFL season by highlighting a six-pack of hitters and a six-pack of pitchers that are participating this fall.

Look here for insight on potential fantasy baseball dynasty league pickups before they hit and to get to know players as they ascend to the major leagues!

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Top Hitter Prospects

Statistical highlights:

• Triples: 1. Tyler Black 12, 2. Edwin Arroyo 11, 3. Nine players with 10.
• Runs scored: 1. Jackson Holliday 113, 2. Austin Gauthier 111, 3. Ryan Bliss 110, 4 (tie). Phillip Evans and Blake Dunn 107.

Hitter Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack

Carson Williams, SS, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays drafted the San Diego native Williams in the first round in 2021, with multiple draft evaluators expressing surprise that the Rays went for Williams over other available prep shortstops. Instead, Williams quickly showed himself on par with many of the elite group of high school shortstops that were taken in front of him in the first round of that draft.

After a strong pro debut in his draft year, the Rays moved Williams to Single-A in 2022 as an 18-year-old to begin the season. He showed plenty to like, hitting .252/.347/.471 with 19 home runs and 28 stolen bases. He also excelled defensively, quickly earning the reputation as one of the elite shortstop defenders in the minor leagues in his first full season of pro ball.

Williams followed that up with an incredibly impressive season in 2023, spending most of his time in High-A Bowling Green, but getting to Triple-A Durham by year's end for a brief debut. He slashed .258/.356/.497 with 23 home runs and 20 stolen bases this year, and amazingly, his defense seemed to even get better. Asked the best shortstop defender in the minors earlier this summer, a scout replied, "You mean the best AFTER Carson Williams of the Rays, right?"

VERDICT: The power/speed combination and elite defense have many fantasy owners drooling, but it's important to note that Williams has a total of 10 games played in the upper minors before heading to the AFL. He should be owned in every dynasty league, but the Rays may well let him cook next season in the upper minors before handing him a big league job, so his redraft value is notably lower.

Colson Montgomery, SS, Chicago White Sox

Selected among the big high school shortstop class in 2021, Mongtomery went off the board with the 22nd overall pick to the White Sox. The fact that he was already 19 and had an atypical frame for a shortstop allowed him to drop to the White Sox, despite frequently grading out as the best bat among the prep shortstops. He showed well in his pro debut with the White Sox, getting on base at a .396 clip.

The Pale Hose assigned Montgomery to Single-A to open 2022, and by mid-season, he earned a promotion to High-A. He continued to show strong plate discipline and power before getting a short run in Double-A as part of the White Sox's "Project Birmingham" at the end of 2022. Overall, he slashed .274/.381/.429 with 11 home runs over 96 games with a 54/83 BB/K rate over 420 innings.

This season has been plagued by injuries for Montgomery, primarily to his back, which has affected the timing of his swing. He's still been able to slash .287/.456/.484 over 64 games with eight home runs. He's also answered plenty of questions about his defensive range at short, though the back issues have affected his throw accuracy seemingly, something that wasn't present before.

VERDICT: The White Sox appear to be heading into a full rebuild this offseason, and Montgomery could be the beneficiary of early playing time if he shows well in the AFL. He's among the top 25-30 prospects in the entire game and would even have value in redraft leagues looking ahead to 2024.

Kevin Alcantara, OF, Chicago Cubs

As the saying goes, "This is what one looks like." If you've ever wanted to know what sorts of things make scouts sit up and take notice, Alcantara has them in droves. The 6'6" outfielder was originally signed by the Yankees out of the Dominican Republic before being traded to the Cubs in the deal that sent Anthony Rizzo to the Bronx.

Alcantara has all of the swagger and raw talent that you want to see in an elite prospect, and he's posted strong numbers as well. After slashing .345/.423/.588 in 34 complex games in 2021, he hit .273/.360/.451 with 15 home runs and 14 steals over 112 games at Single-A in 2022. He followed that up with a .284/.345/.466 line spent mostly at High-A this year with 13 home runs and 15 steals.

Alcantara has excellent reads off the bat in the outfield that should allow him to work in center field even if he adds some additional weight to his frame as he ages. His long legs mean that he often is much better going first to third than stealing a base, but he does offer above-average speed and easy plus raw power at the plate.

VERDICT: The Cubs have a number of young outfielders who will be working to get playing time over the next year or so, which is just fine as Alcantara needs at least one season in the upper minors for a full year. However, he should be owned in all dynasty formats at this point.

Andrew Cossetti, C, Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins drafted Cossetti in the 11th round of the 2022 draft out of St. Joseph's University, most notably the alma mater of Jamie Moyer. Three catchers have been selected out of St. Joe's in the past decade, with each of them bearing a similar reputation as was given to Cossetti as a bat-first backstop.

The bat was certainly notable this year as Cossetti played across both A-ball levels for the Twins, spending much of the year in the top 10 in all of minor league baseball in wRC+, finishing second among those in full-season ball with a 163 mark. Overall, the right-handed swinger hit .287/.426/.534 with 15 home runs in 95 games. He also posted an impressive 16.3% walk rate and 20.2% strikeout rate.

The future defensive position is absolutely a question, as Cossetti had 10 passed balls and four errors this season behind the plate, though he was successful at controlling the run game. Reports suggest that he is an above-average framer, but that his game-calling and ability to shift with "missed" pitches need notable work.

VERDICT: The bat is absolutely worthy of a future backup catcher role, if not a move to another position, to let him swing it full-time. Arizona is a very tough place to evaluate catching overall, but it will allow the Twins some looks at Cossetti handling top-end raw stuff on the mound. Right now, he really doesn't need to be owned in dynasty but keep a very close eye on him as he's the type of guy who could explode onto the scene in 2024 with a tick-up in his defense to go along with the bat.

Chase DeLauter, OF, Cleveland Guardians

DeLauter put up video game-level numbers with James Madison over his final two years, with an impressive showing at the Cape Cod League in 2021 sandwiched between. The Guardians were delighted to see DeLauter fall into their laps with the 16th overall selection, something that likely would not have happened without a broken foot that ended his draft season for JMU and kept him from making his pro debut this year.

He was hoping to make a big impact this season before imaging found a small fracture on his toe, requiring surgery and keeping DeLauter out until June. He attempted to make up for lost time upon his return, climbing up to Double-A by the end of the year. The 6'4" lefty swinger combined for a .355/.417/.528 slash line with 22 doubles, five home runs, and six stolen bases over 57 games.

The Guardians have split DeLauter between center and right field thus far. He has the ability to be an elite right-field defender but can also pass in center as well. However, Cleveland is certainly much more concerned about how his bat responds now that he's healthy, which is why he's headed to the AFL to an environment where he could lean into his home run power more.

VERDICT: While the plate discipline and contact ability are impressive with DeLauter, he's not shown a consistent ability to tap into his raw power during games. That's really the only thing holding him back from being a consensus top-50 prospect in dynasty. He's worth owning in deep and mid-level dynasty leagues for sure and is likely owned in shallow dynasty as well. If not, watch how he handles the AFL before jumping in with both feet.

Zach Dezenzo, 3B, Houston Astros

The Astros grabbed the Ohio State infielder in the 12th round of the 2022 draft after he banged out 19 home runs in 51 games for the Buckeyes. He showed that raw power and patience at the plate in his pro debut with Single-A, hitting four home runs and stealing four bases in just 28 games.

The Astros bumped Dezenzo to High-A to open the season and after 31 games, he was promoted while hitting .407/.474/.628. He had more challenges in Double-A but still had a strong showing, with an overall combined line of .305/.383/.531 with 18 home runs and 22 stolen bases. Many are already tagging Dezenzo as one of their top guys to see this year in the AFL.

Dezenzo primarily played shortstop in college and moved to third in pro ball. He's also played second base this season. With both long-time mainstays at those positions in Houston looking at free agency after 2024, Dezenzo has an excellent opportunity to show that he could be the in-house replacement.

VERDICT: Dezenzo's bat and glove work at the hot corner have him high on my "underrated" list, but if he shows out at the AFL, he may not be underrated for much longer. Certainly a guy to nab in deep dynasty, and if you have the ability in mid-level, take the risk headed into the offseason. Shallow leagues can probably stay away for now, but that could change very quickly with AFL performance.

Top Pitcher Prospects

Statistical highlights:

• Strikeout rate (minimum 70 IP): 1. Kyle Hurt 39.2%, 2. Ronan Kopp 35.8%, 3. Wikelman Gonzalez 35.2%, 4. Logan Henderson 35.2%, 5. Jacob Misiorowski 35%.
• Walk rate (minimum 70 IP): 1. Pierson Ohl 3.5%, 2. Zebby Matthews 3.5%, 3. Jedixson Paez 3.6%, 4. Christian Scott 3.6%, 5. Landon Harper 3.7%.

Pitcher Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack

Bryan Mata, SP, Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox signed Mata in 2015 out of Venezuela for just $25,000, and he made his pro debut in 2016 in the Dominican, where he put up some of the most impressive numbers from a young arm in some time in the DSL. The Red Sox were impressed enough to push him all the way to full-season ball in 2017. He handled himself well, moving up to High-A in 2018 as a 19-year-old.

Mata made a big push in 2019 that had him in the upper minors for roughly half his season, posting a 3.43 combined ERA and 1.28 WHIP with a 111/42 K/BB over 105 innings. Then, after losing the pandemic season, he blew out his elbow in spring training in 2021.

The surgery kept him out until 2022 when he had mixed results while working his way up to Triple-A. He posted an excellent ERA (2.49) and strikeout rate (30.3%) but his command was severely lacking. This year, that bit him hard as he struggled with command and injuries, posting a 6.33 ERA over 27 innings in Triple-A with more walks than strikeouts.

VERDICT: Mata's raw stuff is that of a backend bullpen guy or a high-variability #4 type starter, reaching the upper-90s with his fastball and sporting a plus slider, but the command (and health) could derail things for him. Right now, there's no reason to roster Mata, but an excellent showing in the AFL could definitely put him back on the radar for a Boston club that should have open rotation spots in 2024.

Jackson Jobe, SP, Detroit Tigers

A rare high school arm with polish and power, Jobe was considered a strong candidate for the top overall pick in the 2021 draft before the Tigers nabbed him third overall out of high school in Oklahoma. Detroit held him from his pro debut in 2021, letting him make his pro debut the following year in Single-A. He struggled for much of the season with Lakeland but showed much better in three starts in High-A to end the season.

Jobe opened this year injured and ended up pitching at four levels, though the majority was spent between the Tigers' A-ball level. Over 16 starts, he pitched 64 innings with a 2.81 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and an astounding 84/6 K/BB ratio. The control numbers are not a mirage as he very well could have the best control in the entire minor leagues.

On top of that control, Jobe has elite pitches with a double-plus slider and a new cutter that has already jumped to an easy plus grade -- if not double-plus. He leads that with a fastball that works up to 98 mph and a change that's a plus grade, giving him one of the best repertoires in all of the minor leagues.

VERDICT: Jobe is an incredibly elite pitching prospect. He will be the best right-handed pitcher in the AFL and should be owned in all dynasty leagues. He's likely still going to need all of 2024 in the upper minors before the Tigers push him to the majors. If he can show that he's ready now, his stay in the upper levels could be shorter in 2024, giving him some redraft value in draft-and-holds.

Jaime Melendez, SP, Houston Astros

The Astros signed the 5'8" Melendez out of Mexico at age 17 and sent him to the DSL where he put up eye-popping stats, posting a 2.86 ERA and striking out 39 over 28 1/3 innings. He missed the 2020 season with everyone else due to the pandemic, which cost him important development time.

In 2021, Melendez jumped up three levels, posting a 3.57 ERA over 58 innings, striking out 90. However, he's been stalled at Double-A the last two seasons with a 5+ ERA but striking out 114 over 83 1/3 innings. His control issues were worse this year as he fought injury all season and posted a 7/8 BB/K over 9 2/3 innings.

When healthy, Melendez has an impressive fastball that can touch 98 mph with a slider and curve that both flash plus and a change that is elite. The major issue is his lack of command on his pitches. It's very feasible that the Astros are finally ready to turn the page on Melendez as a starter, so his role in the AFL could be of interest.

VERDICT: A small righty, even with a dynamite arm, has to have excellent control to make things work just due to sight lines being against him for hitters from both sides of the plate. Melendez could do better in a bullpen role if Houston has that in mind for him. Right now, there's no reason to roster him.

Matt Sauer, SP, New York Yankees

Sauer was selected by the Yankees out of high school in 2017 in the second round. Considered one of the best raw arms in that year's draft class, Sauer was moved slowly up the system before surgery knocked him out in 2019 and he missed the pandemic year healing. When he returned in 2021, the Yankees attempted to put a full workload on him between both A-ball levels. The results were mixed, as he posted a 4.69 ERA over 111 1/3 innings but also posted a 127/47 K/BB.

He hoped to move up in 2022 and pitched a full season, with 109 innings between High-A and Double-A, but Sauer struggled to a 4.54 ERA with a 134/42 K/BB. He then had a similar result this season, spent mostly at Double-A, when he posted a 3.41 ERA over 74 innings with a 93/34 K/BB.

Before his Tommy John surgery, Sauer flashed 97-98 mph, but he works now in the low 90s, touching 95. He has a fringe-plus slider and a pair of fringe-average pitches in his curve and change. He's seen his command tick up this year though, which allows him to sequence all four pitches.

VERDICT: Without his high school velocity, Sauer is likely going to max out as a backend starter. If he can stay healthy, that can be a valuable role. Right now, he's not a guy to use a dynasty roster spot on until he shows the ability to be more consistent with his stuff.

Will Bednar, SP, San Francisco Giants

After one of the most impressive College World Series runs in recent memory for Mississippi State in 2021, Bednar was selected 14th overall by the Giants in the 2021 draft. He showed his impressive sinking stuff in his pro debut, tossing seven innings and posting a 6/1 K/BB ratio.

After pitching just 43 innings in Single-A in 2022 due to back issues, Bednar has struggled with the same injury this season. Over the last two years, he managed just 57 total innings, including his time in the AFL last season. In that time, he has posted an impressive 69/31 K/BB ratio but also allowed 31 earned runs in that short time as well.

When he's healthy, Bednar works with a heavy fastball that sits in the low-90s and pairs that with a mid-80s slider. When his back is right and he can get his snap right in his delivery, he pounds the zone and generates plenty of ground balls.

VERDICT: At this point, Bednar may move to the bullpen like his brother David, the Pirates closer, who has plenty of success in the closer role with similar stuff. Until he can remain healthy, there's no reason to roster him, despite his pedigree.

Zach McCambley, RP, Miami Marlins

The Marlins drafted the 6'2" McCambley out of Coastal Carolina in the third round in 2020. He had impressed significantly at the Cape Cod League the summer before with a 1.74 ERA over 20 2/3 innings. McCambley had a mixed debut in 2021, pitching across High-A and Double-A and posting a 4.36 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 97 innings with a 120/26 K/BB ratio.

McCambley lost his feel for his pitches in his second year at Double-A over 94 innings, posting a 5.65 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with a 101/52 K/BB. His fastball/breaking ball combination was still strong, but his change never developed, allowing hitters to sit on his fringe-plus breaker and hit it hard -- if he could even locate it in the zone.

The Marlins chose to move him into the bullpen this season, which allowed his fastball to play up into the mid-90s, touching 97-98 mph. His slider's actions played up in the bullpen move, but he still struggled to locate it. He did post a 3.22 ERA over 44 2/3 innings of relief this season, with a 51/24 K/BB ratio.

VERDICT: McCambley's slider alone could be a weapon in the middle innings out of a big-league bullpen. If he can hold the upper-90s velocity as well, he could be an incredible backend reliever. For now, let him be.

Check back again next week for more evaluations and look behind the numbers!

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