RADIO
Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 23, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
We saw some excellent performances from some American League pitchers over the past week. First, we'll be breaking down Brayan Bello's solid outing that was lost in Boston's 17-1 drubbing of Houston on Thursday. Then, we'll look at Mike Clevinger's utter dominance of the Oakland Athletics on Sunday.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of 08/28/2023.
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Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox – 56% Rostered
2023 Stats (prior to this start): 119.1 IP, 3.70 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 13.7% K-BB%
08/24/23 @ HOU: 7 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
Brayan Bello continued his recent hot streak on Thursday, holding the mighty Houston Astros to one run over seven innings en route to his 10th victory of the season. Bello now has a 2.59 ERA over his last four starts and has picked up the pieces after a rough stretch in July. It’s been up and down all season for Bello, who had a sub-3 ERA in May and July, but also had an ERA north of five in July and April. Bello profiles as a reliable mid-rotation starter, but can he find the consistency necessary for such a role? And more importantly, can he find consistency often enough to be trusted down the stretch?
Originally an international signing by Boston out of the Dominican Republic, Bello rose up prospect ranks by striking out every minor league batter who dared step up to the plate. Seriously. Bello had a monster 12.5 K/9 in 2021 between High-A and Double-A. Last season he had a 12.1 K/9 between Double-A and Triple-A. He gets it done with four pitches: a sinker, a four-seamer, a changeup, and a slider. Bello had begun throwing a cutter during a 6/23 start against the White Sox, but only used it sparingly. He didn't throw one in his most recent outing. It's primarily about the fastballs, changeup, and slider for Bello, and that was the case in this one.
Bello is a little different from your modern pitching prospect in that he uses a two-seamer as his primary fastball. Bello has thrown his sinker 37% of the time this season but has used his four-seamer just 20.6% of the time. It’s easy to see why Bello prefers the sinker after digging into the numbers. Batters have managed just a .266 AVG, .417 SLG, and .327 wOBA off Bello’s sinker this year, all better marks than his four-seamer.
While batters have a .290 AVG and 20-degree average launch angle off Bello’s four-seamer, they send Bello’s sinker straight into the dirt. Opponents have a -5-degree average launch angle off Bello’s sinker, along with a 67.7% groundball rate. Bello has been an effective groundball pitcher throughout his minor league career, and it seems as though that skill has carried over to the major leagues.
If there’s one pitch that’s stood out for Bello this season, it’s certainly been the changeup. Opposing batters are hitting just .181 off Bello’s changeup, along with a .252 SLG and .220 wOBA. It’s been his best strikeout pitch as well, as Bello currently has a 22.4% swinging strike rate and 38.5% chase rate with the changeup. What makes the changeup so tough to hit? With exceptional horizontal break, Bello’s changeup cuts in on right-handers and down on lefties, making it tough for hitters on each side of the plate. Here’s an overlay (source: @PitchingNinja) of Bello’s changeup, slider, and fastball.
Pair a changeup that nasty with mid-90s heat and you’ll have hitters swinging out of their shoes. The eye test says he should be striking guys out, and his minor-league numbers suggest big strikeout potential. However, Bello hasn’t been able to replicate his bat-missing abilities in the majors. What gives? His strikeout rate never dipped below 31% at any minor league level between 2021 and 2022, but he has a pedestrian 19.8% strikeout rate in the big leagues. For Bello, the issue is the slider, his other secondary offering.
There is a reason Bello has been tinkering with a cutter this season, and that reason is poor slider performance. Bello’s slider has been obliterated by opponents for a .338 AVG, .544 SLG, and .397 wOBA. With strong movement and mid-80s velocity, Bello’s slider should be performing much better than this, but much like 90's alt-rock band Lit, Bello is his own worst enemy. Here’s a look at his slider heatmap from this season.
See those purple blocks filling up the strike zone? Yeah, you aren’t supposed to throw it there. Bello’s struggled to command the pitch all season, which is why he has a pitiful 5.6% swinging strike rate and 17.8% chase rate with the pitch. Those are whiff and chase numbers one would expect from a mid-tier fastball, not a slider that’s supposed to have some oomph behind it. This is also why Bello began tinkering with a cutter this season. Bello told Christopher Smith of masslive.com, “I know my slider, I haven’t been able to control it as I’ve wanted to. So I tried it (the cutter) today and it was good to some hitters and it got me out of trouble a couple of times.”
That was in June when he first started throwing it. How’s it going? A .400 AVG and .900 SLG aren’t exactly encouraging. However, he’s only thrown 37 cutters per Baseball Savant. A .223 xBA and .280 xwOBA present a glimmer of hope, but we’ll need to see Bello incorporate the pitch more frequently and get better outcomes before it can be trusted. Ultimately, this solves the mystery of the missing strikeouts. Bello was able to wield his slider effectively against minor-league hitting, but major leaguers simply won’t bite with such inconsistent command.
Bello’s rapid, violent arm action on his delivery may affect his ability to repeat mechanics or locate the pitch on a regular basis. The slider is a better pitch than the numbers make it seem, but Bello looks far away from realizing its potential. It’s unlikely that we’ll see him take that next step this year. Batters have hit .421 off the pitch with a .632 SLG in August thus far.
There’s a lot of talent in this right arm, and Bello has executed well with his changeup and sinker thus far. That being said, it seems that he’s not yet realized his full potential and is still in the growing pains phase of his career. Bello has been good enough this season that he’s trustworthy in most matchups, but his inconsistent command makes him susceptible to home runs and bad outings on occasion. He has surrendered some concerning power numbers with his four-seamer (.559 SLG and 91.4 MPH average exit velocity),
That volatility combined with his underwhelming strikeout rate makes Bello something of a frustrating player to use. Sure, he pitched well by only allowing one run, but he also allowed 12 baserunners and only had four strikeouts in this start. He hasn’t topped eight strikeouts all year and has struck out more than five batters just five times in 22 starts. He’s fine to stream, but fantasy players shouldn’t be very excited about using him.
Verdict:
If I were a Boston Red Sox fan, I’d never forgive Chaim Bloom for trading away Mookie Betts. But I’d also be very excited about the prospect of having a 24-year-old Brayan Bello in my rotation for the foreseeable future. Bello’s sinker has been an excellent groundball pitch, and a 55 to 60% groundball rate seems realistic for Bello in future seasons. Bello’s changeup also has the makings of a bona fide strikeout pitch. He’s struggled to command his slider, and the pitch has been hammered by the competition as a result. Until he can get a feel for his slider, the strikeouts aren’t coming. For 2023, Bello is a low-upside streamer with a strong supporting cast. For beyond, he’s a good talent who will hopefully put things together one day, making him a solid upside play for next season.
Mike Clevinger, Chicago White Sox – 47% Rostered
2023 Stats (prior to this start): 90.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 4.58 FIP, 10.1% K-BB%
08/27 vs. OAK: 7 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 10 K
Was it turn back the clock night at the Cell? Okay, technically this was a day game, and technically it’s called Guaranteed Rate Field now. Still, we saw some vintage Mike Clevinger on Sunday. Clevinger mowed down the Athletics for seven innings of one-run ball, racking up 10 strikeouts along the way. It was the first time since 2019 that Clevinger had earned double-digit strikeouts in a game, and his 83 GSv2 was his highest game score since 2020. This one may have been eye-popping, but Clevinger has been dealing for a while now. He has a 2.15 ERA and 14.6 K-BB% since June 2. Is this the same Mike Clevinger we saw dominate in Cleveland, or was he simply taking advantage of a weak opponent?
It's been a long road back from Tommy John surgery for Clevinger, who has a 3.86 ERA in 212 innings since going under the knife. The ERA doesn’t seem so bad, but Clevinger’s peripherals have cratered since the surgery. Since 2022 Clevinger has a 19.7% strikeout rate and a 4.69 FIP, compared to a 27.3% strikeout rate and 3.53 FIP prior to the surgery. Clevinger hasn’t been the same guy from a stuff perspective either, with the mustachioed righty losing about a full MPH on his fastball and losing movement with his slider. Altogether, Clevinger works with a six-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, slider, curveball, changeup, and cutter. While Clevinger has plenty of options, he simplified things by relying on his three favorites in this start, the four-seamer, slider, and changeup.
Clevinger’s velocity loss was well-noted last season, with Clevinger losing two MPH on his fastball compared to its peak, going from 95.5 MPH to 93.5 MPH. Clevinger has regained some of his fastball velocity this season, averaging 94.6 MPH. He’s been throwing harder during his hot streak as well, with Clevinger averaging 95 MPH with his fastball since June 2. Batters certainly noticed the difference, as opponents were hitting .294 off his fastball on June 1, but have hit .202 with a .337 SLG since, along with a 5% increase in swinging strike rate. This is more in line with how Clevinger’s fastball performed during his peak. With similar velocity and measurables, Clevinger may have worked his fastball back close to where it needs to be.
The fastball is back, but what about Clevinger’s slider? It was his best strikeout pitch in Cleveland, and strikeouts have been one of the last skills to return for Clevinger. Unlike his fastball, the velocity hasn’t returned for his slider, but it may not have to. Clevinger’s slider was always on the softer, loopier end for a slider, making it more of a slurve than a true slider. Here’s an example of the pitch from this start.
That frisbee-like slider tore the A’s up, earning Clevinger 12 whiffs on 16 swings for a monster 75% whiff rate. Batters have struggled against the pitch this season, with opponents posting a paltry .173 AVG, .306 SLG, and .251 wOBA off Clevinger’s slider. Unfortunately, the whiffs haven’t returned on a consistent basis, with Clevinger posting just a 13.8% swinging strike rate on the year, well below his pre-surgery marks. The whiffs haven’t improved even over Clevinger’s nine-start stretch, making it hard to envision them returning to pre-surgery levels at any point.
The whiffs didn’t increase on his fastball much, but one area where Clevinger has seen improvement across the season is his changeup. Batters are hitting just .182 with a .205 SLG and .213 wOBA off Clevinger’s changeup this year. Amazingly, opponents have had one extra-base hit total (a double) off the pitch this season, all the way back on May 17. The whiffs have increased over the course of the season as well, with Clevinger boasting a solid 13.49% whiff rate from June 2 onwards after posting a 9.8% whiff rate prior. Even when they do make contact, opponents have struggled to square it up with an 82 MPH average exit velocity off the pitch. The changeup gives Clevinger a viable option against left-handed hitters and rounds out his arsenal with three solid pitches.
Verdict:
Pitch by pitch, Clevinger looks like a solid Major League hurler. If we zoom out, things become a little more iffy. Clevinger has enjoyed a .264 BABIP, 80.5% LOB rate, and 7.7% HR/FB ratio this season, three signs of good fortune that have undoubtedly contributed to his success. Even during his strong nine-start stretch, Clevinger had a 4.94 xFIP and .238 BABIP. He’s at a stage in his career where peripherals probably aren’t going to predict good things for him, but the real Mike Clevinger likely lies somewhere between the 2.15 ERA and 4.94 xFIP.
It’s easy to write him off as a washed-up veteran or a victim of Tommy John surgery. However, Clevinger has shown signs of incremental improvement. While he’ll likely never reach his peak again, he has the makings of a solid streaming option. His next two starts are lined up against Detroit and the White Sox have a relatively easy schedule to finish the year. This means fantasy players can continue to deploy Clevinger as a back-end arm.
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