Targets and Avoids: Second-Contract Running Backs for Fantasy Football Drafts

August 25, 2023

Should we be worried about Miles Sanders and David Montgomery? Does fantasy production decrease after signing a second deal? Ellis Johnson outlines the fantasy production for the 2023 draft season.

Second-contract running backs have become some of the scariest players on the roster. It’s no secret that production has historically decreased once their second deal is signed. However, is the drop-off really that scary?

Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, and David Johnson highlight the busts of this group. Since these big names fell off, there have been other successful backs to sign a multi-year second deal. I looked over the last six years and isolated the 13 backs that had an RB-one (top 12) finish before their second contract and analyzed their production the following seasons.

One of the most common mentalities in a dynasty is to play for a two or three-year window and sell backs “high” around three years into their rookie contract. After looking at the production, this might be a time to Zig while the dynasty community Zags. In fact, second-deal backs might be the perfect dynasty buys.

Running Backs on Second Contracts

To begin, I want to clarify that this article examines how fantasy football is impacted by second contracts. Whether the league re-evaluates the position or changes the structure of these deals is a related but also separate discussion.

Here is the list of backs that I highlighted and their corresponding second contracts. My criteria was that they had to have an RB-one (top 12) fantasy season before signing a multi-year second deal. I looked back to 2017, as the fear of second-contract running backs in fantasy really gained ground with the Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, and David Johnson contracts and their corresponding fantasy falls.

RB Second Contracts

• Devonta Freeman (ATL, NYG) - 2017, 5 years 41.25m
• Todd Gurley (LAR, ATL) - 2018, 4 years 57.5m
• David Johnson (ARI, HOU) - 2018, 3 years 39m
• Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) - 2019, 6 years 90m
• Austin Ekeler (LAC) - 2020, 4 years 24m
• Joe Mixon (CIN) - 2020, 4 years 48m
• Alvin Kamara (NOS) - 2020, 5 years 75m
• Derrick Henry (TEN) - Tag 2020, 2021 4 years 50m
• Dalvin Cook (MIN) - 2020, 5 years, 63m
• Christian McCaffrey(CAR, SF) - 2020, 4 years 64m
• Aaron Jones (GB) - 2021, 4 years 48m
• James Conner (ARI) - 2021, 3 years 21m
• Nick Chubb (CLE) - 2021, 3 years 36.6m
• Here are the two backs that fit this criteria and signed deals during the 2023 offseason:
• Miles Sanders (PHI, CAR) - 2023, 4 years 24.2m
• David Montgomery (CHI, DET) - 2023, 3 years 18m

Of course, there are three other big names that have had issues securing their second deal: Saquon Barkley (NYG), Jonathan Taylor (IND), and Josh Jacobs (LVR). If these backs manage to receive a multi-year second contract, then this analysis intends to help predict their future production. With the uncertainty of the current RB market, there is a risk to all backs that have yet to sign their second deal. I’ll leave you to decide how to factor that risk into your player evaluations.

Fantasy Production

Let’s look at this from a fantasy points per game (PPG) viewpoint. I believe that using PPG can provide a more accurate indicator of whether or not fantasy production decreases during a second contract. The numbers in RED are post-signing their second contract.

Overall, these players averaged 15.2 PPG following their second contract. For perspective, only four backs averaged more fantasy PPG last year. How does this compare to their output before the contract? If you take these players’ average fantasy PPG during their last two seasons on their first deal and subtract their average PPG after the deal, these backs saw a decrease of 0.52 fantasy points per game.

Changing Teams

There is the potential that these second contracts may be on a different team. Of this list, the backs that switched teams at the start of or during their second deal include Freeman, Gurley, Johnson, McCaffrey, and Conner. Freeman, Gurley, and Johnson all switched teams in 2020. Each of these backs was nearing the end of their career, and both Johnson and Gurley managed to have at least one season in the top 25 for fantasy purposes on their new team.

As for James Conner and Christian McCaffrey, we have seen both of them thrive with their new teams. After switching teams mid-season in 2022, McCaffrey didn’t miss a beat and averaged 110 total yards per game with the 49ers. Even when we are talking talented backs, it’s clear McCaffrey is a different beast for fantasy. Thankfully, we have also seen two full seasons of James Conner on the Cardinals. In both of these seasons, he finished in the top 20 and was in the top 10 in PPG in each.

Although it’s a small sample, two of these five backs who switched teams continued to be at the top of their position (McCaffrey and Conner), two managed one more season of fantasy relevance (Gurley and Johnson), and one was basically written off (Freeman). Looking at these names, it was clear Gurley, Johnson, and Freeman were in the twilight of their respective careers, while McCaffrey and Conner were still in their prime. Based on history, if a top-end fantasy back changes teams in their prime, there is reason for optimism. In 2023, this can potentially be applied to Sanders and Montgomery.

Rookie Quarterbacks and Second RB Contracts

Of these 13 backs, only two played with a rookie QB during their second contract. These two were David Johnson with Kyler Murray (2019) and Davis Mills (2021), and Austin Ekeler with Justin Herbert (2020). In 2019, David Johnson only started nine games and finished as the RB38 with 9.5 fantasy PPG.

In 2020, Herbert had a record-breaking rookie season and managed to support Ekeler’s RB-two overall finish. Lastly, in 2021, Davis Mills was a pleasant late-round surprise but has proven to not be a long-term starter in the NFL. Plus, David Johnson was clearly nearing the end of his career in 2021 and finished as the RB63. 

As a result, there is not a lot of data for a back like Miles Sanders, who will be starting his second contract with a rookie QB this season. However, it would appear that if Bryce Young is somewhat similar to his high-drafted counterparts (Herbert and Murray), there could be a path to fantasy success.

Piecing it together, what does this mean? 

How I interpret the data, is that if an RB has a top-12 finish during their rookie deal and manages to sign a multi-year contract, their production continues to be relatively consistent. In other words, backs who have proven to have the ability to be an RB-one for fantasy early in their careers, do not see a significant decrease in fantasy production in the next few years following their rookie contract. If you are playing for a two-three-year window, these are the players that may be exceptional values in your leagues.

These backs are often not sexy and don’t carry the appeal of the incoming rookie class or other younger players. As a result, their lack of appeal is reflected in their dynasty values. Based on the notorious dynasty evaluation website Keep Trade Cut, here are how the two most recent backs are valued.

Miles Sanders is currently valued around J.K. Dobbins and James Cook. Neither of these backs has demonstrated consistent production. David Montgomery is being valued around A.J. Dillon and Brian Robinson. Again, Montgomery is locked in for another three years with one of the best offensive lines and has proven his ability more than Dillon and Robinson. If Sanders and Montgomery are anywhere near averaging 0.52 fewer fantasy PPG than their previous two seasons, they are incredible values.

If you believe that Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Jacobs will manage to sign multi-year deals, this might be a great time to acquire RB-one fantasy production for years to come at a cheap price. It also makes backs entering their third and fourth years (Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, D’Andre Swift to name a few) potentially more interesting if they manage to perform again in 2023.

Fantasy is all about being ahead of the game. Whether you interpret this analysis as positive or negative for dynasty running backs, I hope this information may provide an alternative perspective to take advantage of the current dynasty trend.

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