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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering free MLB betting content all season long. I bring a background in betting on MLB in various capacities, most notably competing in the DraftKings DFS live final last year. I'm looking to build off that momentum and capitalize on this baseball season again, and I'm including you in my process.
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Here I’ll update you on my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We're treading water so far, going 13-17-1 on my betting picks so far, so we'll work on getting back in the green. Now let’s dig into my recommendations for August 5, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Orioles
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: BAL -175
NYM: Tylor Megill | BAL: Kyle Gibson
We'll begin with a showdown in Baltimore between two teams on diverging trajectories. The Orioles are winners of five of their last six contests, attempting to hold on tight to their first-place spot in the American League East. Conversely, the Mets were surprise sellers at the trade deadline earlier this week and have now dropped five of their last six games. The enthusiasm appears sapped from this group. The Orioles took game one of the series by a 10-3 score, and it wouldn't surprise me to see something similar transpire today.
Tylor Megill gets the nod for New York on Saturday. Poor performances landed him a demotion to Triple-A in mid-June, but the recent departures of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer have created vacancies in the Mets' starting rotation. All the same, nothing about Megill's 2023 suggests he's prepared to succeed. He posted an awful 8.67 ERA across six minor-league outings, following a 5.17 ERA through 15 major-league starts earlier this season. That includes some ugly underlying metrics, like a 6.08 xERA, 5.19 xFIP, .476 xSLG, .284 xBA, and .373 xwOBA.
Notably, left-handed hitters are slugging .511 against Megill for his career. That's great news for an Orioles' lineup featuring Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Adley Rutschman, and Ryan O'Hearn. It also helps that Camden Yards' dimensions favor left-handed power. Overall, Baltimore averages five runs per game on the season and should have no issue blowing past Megill today.
Kyle Gibson will take the mound for Baltimore. There's nothing overly impressive about Gibson's numbers, featuring a 4.43 xERA and 4.25 xFIP. That said, he's generally a pretty reliable arm. Gibson has posted a quality start in four of his past five outings. He also catches the Mets at the right time. New York has been scoring only 4.1 runs per game since the beginning of July, and they are showing few signs of life at the plate recently. I trust Gibson to put in his usual solid six innings and hand it off to one of the league's best bullpens.
There are several reasons to believe the Orioles win this one handily, but the lack of competent pitching on the part of the Mets is where I identify the most edge.
Pick: Orioles Run Line (+105) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Twins
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIN (-160)
ARI: Ryne Nelson | MIN: Kenta Maeda
Moving on to Minnesota for the second leg of the Diamondbacks-Twins series. The first game resulted in a 3-2 victory for the Twins, but I expect more fireworks today. Saturday's matchup features a noteworthy drop-off in pitching quality, and these offenses are more capable than they showcased last night.
Ryne Nelson gets the start for Arizona, having a weak 2023 campaign. Through 22 starts, he sports an uninspiring 5.04 xERA and 5.27 xFIP. That includes some additionally ugly numbers, like a .470 xSLG, 10.9% barrel rate, 91 MPH average exit velocity, and .344 xwOBA.
Nelson will have his hands full with an underrated Minnesota Twins offense. For the season, the Twins boast a 108 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, alongside similarly strong stats, such as a .745 OPS and a .182 ISO. They recently lost Byron Buxton to the injured list, but he's hardly been a catalyst anyway this season, posting a subpar 99 OPS+. The true headliner in this lineup will be Edouard Julien, accompanied by a high-ceiling cast of Carlos Correa, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Matt Wallner, and more.
On the flip side, Kenta Maeda takes the bump for Minnesota. He carries a 4.53 ERA through 11 outings this season. Maeda's 3.72 xERA suggests he's due for some positive regression, but he's also getting hit hard to the tune of a 91.7 MPH average exit velocity, 9.9% barrel rate, and 46.1% hard-hit rate.
Maeda isn't a bad pitcher, though he does draw a tough matchup today. Arizona sports a strong .756 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, including a 103 wRC+ and .175 ISO. The Diamondbacks put up 4.8 runs per game for the year behind skilled bats like Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Christian Walker. The recent addition of Tommy Pham into the mix only further bolsters their run-scoring ability.
The pitching is too uncertain in this spot for me to believe the 8.5-run mark won't be surpassed. One or both of these above-average offenses will pop off today.
Pick: Over 8.5 Total Runs (-105) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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