RADIO
Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 19, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
We've got east coast bias this week, with two exciting young arms emerging with strong starts over the weekend. First, we'll look at Grayson Rodriguez's first career quality start on Friday. Then, we'll take a look at Christopher Sanchez's five no-hit innings in Pittsburgh.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 07/31/2023.
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Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles – 51% Rostered
2023 Stats (prior to this start): 56 IP, 6.91 ERA, 5.28 FIP, 16.2% K-BB%
07/28 vs. NYY: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
It was a night to remember for Rodriguez on Friday, as the young right-hander twirled six and a third innings of shutout ball against the Bronx Bombers. It was the first quality start of Rodriguez’s career, and Rodriguez has a 3.18 ERA over his last three starts. Rodriguez was considered one of baseball’s best pitching prospects coming into the year, but struggles have defined his rookie campaign, perhaps best evidenced by his 6.21 ERA over 13 starts. Still, there’s plenty of talent in this right arm, and fantasy managers must be wondering if Rodriguez has turned a corner in the big leagues. Is it sunny days ahead for Rodriguez, or will the sky turn Gray(son)?
Originally the 11th overall pick by Baltimore back in the 2018 MLB draft, Rodriguez shot up prospect rankings quickly and was considered by many to be one of—if not the—top pitching prospects in all of baseball. Rodriguez has everything we like to see in a pitcher. His 6’5”, 230-pound frame gives him power behind his pitches and helps him handle a starter’s load. His heater averages 97 on the gun and can touch triple digits. He has four viable secondary pitches to pair with his killer heat, the slider, changeup, curveball, and cutter.
The lone flaw in his game is wavering control, but nothing a pitcher of Rodriguez’s talent can’t work through over time. Rodriguez was dominating at Triple-A, and all signs pointed to him being ready for the big leagues. So what went wrong? To understand whether Rodriguez can be a good fantasy pitcher going forward, let’s examine what’s made him underperform.
A quick peek under the hood and the issue for Rodriguez is glaringly obvious. Batters are teeing off against his fastball. Opponents have an unreal .363 AVG, .647 SLG, and .454 wOBA against Rodriguez’s fastball this season. These numbers shouldn’t be solely dismissed as bad luck either, since Rodriguez has a .340 xBA, .558 xSLG, and .420 xwOBA with his fastball this season. Batters have pulverized the pitch for a staggering 93.1 MPH average exit velocity and a 15-degree average launch angle.
Rodriguez’s fastball may come in hot at 97 MPH, but with below-average spin and almost no vertical movement, the pitch seems to lack some of the deceptive qualities we like to see in fastballs. Sure, Rodriguez can buzz straight 98s past guys in the minor leagues, but this is the show. If you try and go after major league hitters with fastballs, even very hard fastballs, they will post a .647 SLG against you. Here’s a look at Rodriguez’s fastball heatmap from this season.
He's thrown a lot of high fastballs, but he also spent too much time in the zone with his fastball. It could be a confidence issue or a control issue, but either way, Rodriguez needs to focus on keeping the ball up and out of his opponents’ wheelhouse if he wants to curb the damage. Rodriguez did that quite a bit in this start and was able to induce eight whiffs with his heater, but whether he can do it on a consistent basis remains to be seen.
Part of the reason for Rodriguez’s hesitation to keep his fastball up could be the uncharacteristic home run issues he’s suffered this season. Rodriguez has a 1.88 HR/9 on the year and has surrendered 13 home runs already, one more than the total number of homers he surrendered in the minors between 2021-22. Why’s this happening?
The problem is actually rather simple. Rodriguez has an unlucky 22.4% HR/FB ratio. This is 10% higher than the league average, and since pitchers have (relatively) little influence over their HR/FB ratio, Rodriguez could start performing better once his HR/FB ratio regresses to the mean. Heck, Rodriguez has gone three straight starts without surrendering a homer, and he has a 3.18 ERA over that stretch.
His 3.84 xFIP, which projects a pitcher’s FIP using league average HR/FB rate, suggests that Rodriguez has pitched well enough to deserve a sub-4 ERA this season. Rodriguez is giving up enough hard contact (91 MPH average exit velocity, 50.3% hard-hit rate) that we shouldn’t chalk his home run rate entirely up to bad luck, but bad luck has certainly played a significant role in his poor performance. And the bad luck extends beyond the issue of home runs. Rodriguez is the victim of a .349 BABIP and 67.7% LOB rate this season. Positive regression should be coming for Grayson Rodriguez.
The struggles with his fastball are rather unfortunate because Rodriguez’s secondary pitches have been phenomenal this season. Opponents have a .227 AVG and .341 SLG against his vaunted changeup, and a .192 AVG and .192 SLG off his slider. Rodriguez’s changeup has been quite the strikeout pitch as well, with a 14.2% swinging strike rate and a 37.1% chase rate. With plus vertical and horizontal movement, Rodriguez’s changeup moves like a breaking ball and can earn whiffs, especially when his fastball is working. Rodriguez was a strikeout machine in the minors and should have no problem sustaining a strong strikeout rate in the majors.
Verdict:
It’s easy to see the talent in Grayson Rodriguez. His stuff looks as advertised, with Rodriguez capable of firing in high 90s heat and mixing in four-plus secondary pitches. His changeup has been racking up strikeouts just like it did in the minor leagues. Unfortunately, it’s also easy to see that Rodriguez has hurdles to jump before he can realize his potential. He’s living too much in the zone with his fastball, causing opposing hitters to knock his four-seamer around quite a bit.
He’s struggled with control at times, with Rodriguez issuing multiple walks in four straight starts. He’s given up too many home runs, with Rodriguez surrendering more homers in 13 MLB starts than his entire 2021-2022 seasons in the minors. He’s giving up far too much hard contact at a 50.3% hard-hit rate and 91 MPH average exit velocity on the season.
All in all, Rodriguez is a skilled young pitcher who isn’t quite there yet but is improving. He probably isn’t going to suddenly save your season, but he could get hot down the stretch and be an impactful arm. With so much attention focused on traded players, Rodriguez could be a sneaky add-in fantasy right now. For dynasty players, Rodriguez is an intriguing buy-low candidate, especially if his manager is in a tight playoff race and needs impactful players now.
Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies – 39% Rostered
2023 Stats (prior to this start): 42.1 IP, 2.98 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 19.3% K-BB%
07/30 @ PIT: 5 IP, 0 H, 2 BB, 3 K
Sanchez turned in one of his best performances of the season on Sunday, firing five no-hit innings against the Pirates. It wasn’t enough to earn the win, but Sanchez did lower his ERA to a cool 2.66 in the process. Sanchez has been rolling since he rejoined Philadelphia’s rotation back in June, and looks like he could be a solid contributor down the stretch. It was just what the Phillies needed after Bailey Faltered, but can Sanchez do it for fantasy players too?
Originally signed as an international free agent by Tampa Bay back in 2013, Sanchez was traded to the Phillies in 2019 for infielder Curtis Mead. Mead has gone on to garner some hype as a prospect, but it hasn’t really been clear what the Phillies had in Sanchez prior to this season. Working with a three-pitch mix, Sanchez attacks hitters with his sinker, changeup, and slider trio. At 91.8 MPH on average Sanchez doesn’t throw nearly as hard as Grayson Rodriguez, but Sanchez’s fastball isn’t really about velocity. Sanchez gets it done by other means.
Batters have smoked Sanchez’s fastball this season for a 92.2 MPH average exit velocity, yet opponents have just a .235 AVG off the pitch. Why? Sanchez is a groundball machine, with opponents averaging a 4-degree average launch angle against his sinker this season. Batters also have a 55.4% groundball rate and a .353 SLG off his sinker. Hitters can’t elevate the pitch, and if they can’t elevate, they can only do so much damage. Sanchez has tweaked one thing this season, and that’s going at hitters with his sinker. Here’s a look at Sanchez’s sinker heatmap this season.
Looks a lot different from Grayson Rodriguez’s heatmap, doesn’t it? Unlike Grayson Rodriguez, who wants to make hitters swing and miss at his pitches, Sanchez wants hitters to swing and make contact, but send the ball into the dirt. With such a sharp sinker, Sanchez can best achieve that by living in the zone with well-placed pitches. Sanchez’s sinker zone rate is an astonishing 69.6% this season, a 15% increase compared to last year. Sanchez has leaned into his ability to induce groundballs, and it’s working tremendously since Sanchez has a stellar 56.5% groundball rate this season, a number eclipsed by just three qualified starters.
What makes a groundball pitcher good extends beyond their fastball. Sure, it’s one thing to generate grounders on a sinker, but what sets a groundball pitcher apart is his secondary offerings. Sanchez has been excellent with his secondary pitches this season, especially his changeup. Opponents have an infinitesimal .127 AVG, .291 SLG, and .211 wOBA off the changeup this season. Even better, batters have a 1-degree average launch angle against, 83 MPH average exit velocity, and a 17.1% swinging strike rate against Sanchez’s changeup. With above average break and exceptional drop, the changeup plays more like a true breaking ball. Here is an example from this start.
Pretty nasty stuff from Mr. Sanchez, who isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher typically. Sanchez’s changeup looks like a decent strikeout weapon, and Sanchez could improve upon his strikeout game over time as he tinkers with his approach. Even if he doesn’t, his stuff is good enough to produce a 55%+ groundball rate, which puts him near the top of the league in terms of groundball prowess among starters.
While Sanchez has been great thus far, luck has definitely played a factor in his success. Sanchez is the beneficiary of a .224 BABIP, 80.1% LOB rate, and a 41-point gap between his actual BA against (.202) and his xBA (.243). Sanchez’s 4.17 FIP only reinforces the notion that he’s overperforming, and given his shaky career track record it’s easy to doubt him. Sanchez had a 4.35 ERA, 5.39 FIP, and 5.26 BB/9 in the minor leagues, so it’s curious to see him perform so much better at the major league level. Sanchez feels a little like Julio Teheran, who was pitching horribly in the minor leagues but inexplicably had a hot stretch in the majors before totally collapsing. There should be more staying power with Sanchez, because Sanchez has the makings of a top-level groundball pitcher, and has better stuff than Teheran in general.
Verdict:
Sanchez’s groundball prowess has always made us wonder if he’s capable of more, and the 2023 season appears to have confirmed those beliefs. Using an aggressive, zone-heavy approach, Sanchez is generating more grounders with his sinker than ever. Batters are struggling to elevate against him entirely, with opponents sporting an ugly 4-degree average launch angle off Sanchez this season. His slider and changeup are also solid groundball pitches, and his changeup has the potential to be a strikeout weapon down the line.
Sanchez has displayed uncharacteristic control this season with a 1.52 BB/9, and it’s hard for this writer to believe he can sustain that over the long run. Still, there is more bad than good here with Sanchez, and he could be a contributor this season. In fact, he could be the second-half version of Bryce Elder, a mid-20s NL East arm who gets by on control and ground balls. Sanchez is worth the add in 12-team leagues or deeper.
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