RADIO
Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 16, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
While most of the baseball world is focused on the best of the best at the All-Star game, we'll be breaking down a pair of pitchers who's 2023 seasons haven't quite been up to All-Star standards thus far. First, we'll be looking at Matt Manning's combined no-hitter against the Blue Jays on Saturday. Then, we'll be breaking down Alek Manoah's return to the majors against Detroit on Friday.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 07/10/2023.
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Matt Manning, Detroit Tigers – 7% Rostered
2023 Stats (prior to this start): 22.1 IP, 4.84 ERA, 5.61 FIP, 8.4% K-BB%
07/08 vs. TOR: 6.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
All eyes were on Manning this Saturday, as the young right-hander fired six and two-thirds hitless innings against the Blue Jays. Manning’s bullpen came through for him, and the 25-year-old can now proudly say he started a MLB game where the other team didn’t produce any hits. It was an exciting day for Manning and Tigers fans for sure, but we fantasy baseball players are left wondering if there could be something more with Manning. Has the one-time high-ranking prospect finally figured things out, or did he catch a sleepy Jays team looking ahead to their break?
The ninth pick of the 2016 MLB draft, Manning was part of the Mize-Skubal-Manning trio that was supposed to transform Detroit’s rotation into one of the league's best. But, as they say, the best-laid plans of Mize and men often go awry. Each member of the trio has faced their own forms of successes and setbacks, and Manning may’ve had the bumpiest road of all.
Manning has managed just 35 big league starts over three separate seasons, and has a 4.62 ERA and 4.97 xFIP to show for it. On paper, Manning fits many a scout’s ideal of a starting pitcher prospect; he’s 6’6” with a four-pitch arsenal and could supposedly touch 99 on the gun. Manning has never been able to translate his positive attributes into success on the diamond. What gives?
The biggest issue for Manning, from what this writer can see, is actually quite simple. His stuff isn’t as good as advertised. Remember from two sentences ago about how scouts were enamored with Manning’s 99 MPH fastball velocity? Manning has never touched more than 98 in a MLB game, has maxed out at 97.3 MPH this season, and has averaged just 93.2 MPH with his heater this season.
93.2 MPH is only slightly below the league average, but considering Manning’s build, the hype surrounding him, and the fact that he’s just 25, slightly below league average is rather underwhelming. Furthermore, Manning is in just the 22nd percentile of fastball spin in MLB, making his fastball deficient by two of the most important measures of evaluation.
With below-average spin and velocity, it’s no wonder Manning has struggled to perform with his fastball. Opposing batters are hitting .261 off the pitch with a .478 SLG and .386 wOBA. The .236 xBA Manning has with his fastball may suggest he’s been unlucky in that department, but his .465 xSLG and .379 xwOBA suggest that Manning has earned much of the poor results he’s experienced thus far.
Batters have flat-out pulverized Manning’s four-seam fastball this season as well, putting up a monster 93.0 MPH average exit velocity against the pitch. Manning’s fastball performed better in terms of exit velocity on Saturday (85 MPH average exit velo on his fastball against TOR), but he still had an overall 90.5 MPH average exit velocity in this start despite giving up zero hits.
While Manning’s fastball leaves something to be desired, his secondary pitches have performed much better than his fastball this season. Opponents are hitting a microscopic .074 against his slider, and are hitting .192 against his curveball. While those low batting averages make his secondary pitches appear to be dominant, things look a little shakier once one dives into the supporting metrics.
We’ll start with Manning’s curveball, which he’s begun using more often this season, throwing the bender 20.9% of the time compared to 10.5% last year. Manning has held batters to a cool .192 AVG, .231 SLG, and .197 wOBA of his curveball this season, but the .292 xBA, .498 xSLG, and .343 xwOBA indicate that Manning has overperformed to a large degree with this pitch. Batters have a 90.9 MPH average exit velocity and a 10-degree average launch angle off this pitch. Even worse, Manning has a pitiful 1.1% swinging strike rate, 21.1% chase rate, and 97.7% contact rate with his curveball. It’s only been 93 pitches, but there’s no denying it. These underlying metrics aren’t just concerning, they’re downright awful.
Manning’s slider is a little more encouraging, as the .074 AVG against is supported by a .111 xBA, .246 xSLG, and .174 xwOBA. Batters have had a difficult time squaring the pitch up, with the success of Manning’s curveball driven by the poor quality of contact opposing hitters are producing against the pitch. Manning has a 33-degree average launch angle and a 78.9% flyball rate with his slider this season. Flyballs are the least likely batted ball type to fall for a hit, so a flyball rate this high can be a virtue, especially for a pitcher in Detroit, because Comerica Park is one of the best parks in MLB for home run suppression.
While this is certainly a positive trend for Manning, one has to wonder about the long-term sustainability of this approach. Manning’s 26% chase rate and 11.7% swinging strike rate with his slider are terrible, and his career flyball rate on his slider is 44.9%. It’s unrealistic for us to expect a 34% jump in this metric to hold (heck, Manning has surrendered zero line drives with this slider this season), and even if Manning did sustain this over the course of a full season, it’s not that interesting from a fantasy perspective. There are plenty of goofy pitch-to-contact types on waivers, many of whom have much stronger track records than Manning.
Altogether, Manning seems to have made little developmental progress on the mound. Even in this start, one his best ever, Manning had a 1.67 K/BB ratio and earned just five total whiffs. Not five strikeouts (he did have exactly five strikeouts in this start), five whiffs. It’s a breakout start and he managed just five whiffs. Overall, Manning has a 6.1% swinging strike rate and is in the second percentile of chase rate. Second percentile. As in, 98% of MLB pitchers have a better chase rate than him. His chase rate is lower than that of Chad Kuhl. Chad Kuhl. I know I’m reemphasizing things a lot here, but Chad Kuhl! It's not pretty.
Verdict:
Manning is doing too many things wrong at this juncture to trust on our fantasy teams. His core arsenal (fastball-slider-curve) is below average by just about every measure, and he’s skated by on a .200 BABIP and 77.6% LOB rate this season. Manning is too raw and unpredictable to stream; the risk isn’t worth the reward, especially considering Manning is deficient in strikeouts and will struggle to get wins since he pitches for one of the league’s weakest clubs. Strikeouts and wins are two of the biggest reasons we stream starting pitchers in the first place. This one is a flat no, do not add unless you’re in a deep enough league where anyone with a pulse has value.
Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays – 77% Rostered
2023 Stats (prior to this start): 58 IP, 6.36 ERA, 6.42 FIP, 2.8% K-BB%
07/07 @ DET: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K
Manoah made his triumphant return to the majors Friday night, putting up one of his strongest starts all season with six innings of one-run ball in Detroit. Seen as one of MLB’s best up-and-coming arms after a dominant 2022 season, Manoah has been one of the most shocking and disappointing players in all of baseball this season. We know he’s got talent, but was Friday a step forward, or just a mirage against a weak lineup?
At the beginning of the season, it would’ve been unthinkable for Manoah to be the subject of a column like this. He finished third in Cy Young voting in 2022 after posting a 2.24 ERA in 196 2/3 innings and had all the indications of a budding ace. Sure, his changeup could use a little work, and sure, his .244 BABIP and 82.6% LOB rate last season suggested that Manoah overperformed to some degree, but no one could’ve predicted his utter collapse. A descent that may’ve reached its nadir when Manoah surrendered 11 runs in a rookie ball start. What caused Manoah’s struggles, and are they fixed?
If there’s one problem that stands out as uncharacteristic of Manoah, it’s the lack of control. Control issues are nothing new for big-bodied pitchers like Manoah, but Manoah had an impressive 6.5% walk rate last season. That has more than doubled this season, with Manoah currently sitting at 13.8%. Issuing a walk is never a good thing (unless you’re facing a roided-up Barry Bonds in 2002. Then, just walk him), but the problem extends beyond a free ticket to first base. Manoah seems unable to hit his spots as consistently as last season, leading to a more predictable and ultimately more hittable pitcher wearing number six for Toronto. For easy visualization, let’s compare Manoah’s four-seam fastball heatmap from last season (bottom) to this season (top).
He's throwing more high fastballs this season, and fewer fastballs in the zone. While high fastballs can be a great tool for many pitchers, this approach doesn’t quite fit Manoah’s style. High fastballs are most effective when the pitcher has exceptional velocity, an exceptional spin rate, or a combination of these factors. That’s not Alek Manoah, who is in the 40th percentile of fastball velocity and the 61st percentile in fastball spin.
Manoah isn’t throwing high fastballs because he thinks it’s an effective strategy. He’s throwing high fastballs because he doesn’t trust his ability to challenge hitters in the zone. The zone rate on Manoah’s fastball is 9% lower this season compared to last year, and since his chase rate and swinging strike rates haven’t improved, the logical consequence is more walks allowed.
Now, it may be that Manoah is throwing high fastballs not because he’s lost control, but because the quality of his fastball has degraded. Manoah’s 92.8 MPH average fastball velocity is nearly a full MPH lower than last season and puts him firmly below the league average. Like with Matt Manning, it’s not what one would expect from a 25-year-old pitcher with a large build (is Rowdy Tellez a singles hitter?), but here we are. Manoah’s four-seamer has been obliterated by opposing batters this season to the tune of a .314 AVG, .557 SLG, and .424 wOBA. With numbers like that, Manoah should be throwing to his teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the Home Run Derby, not starting major league games.
With numbers like that, it’s also easy to see why Manoah might’ve shied away from challenging hitters in the zone. Were things any different against Detroit on Friday? Sort of. Manoah’s fastball velocity was still down, but he did have his highest zone rate of the season in this start. Here’s his fastball heatmap from this outing.
Looks like Manoah is still loving the high fastball, but in his defense, he could probably get away with this pitching style against Detroit. The Tigers have a .289 wOBA, 84 wRC+, and a 24.2% strikeout rate against right-handers this season, and Manoah caught them three days away from their only in-season break, an All-Star break that Detroit’s offensive starters are decidedly not participating in.
So, his fastball is taking baby steps (is there anything smaller than a baby? A baby amoeba?) in the right direction. He’s got a long way to go, but he’s at least on the right path. What about his slider? The pitch that took Manoah from a future as a mid-rotation innings eater and propelled him into stardom. Is that pitch back? Like with his fastball, there was some good and some bad in this start. The good would be an increase in vertical movement on the slider compared to his season average. The bad would be the 80.4 MPH velocity and 21% whiff rate Manoah had with the pitch in this start.
Even though Manoah has suffered a similar loss in velocity and swinging strike rate with his slider, the pitch doesn’t seem to have degraded as much as his fastball. Sure, opponents are hitting .292 off the pitch with a .538 SLG, but Manoah’s .210 xBA and .356 xSLG suggest that he’s been quite unlucky with this pitch. Manoah also has a .299 xwOBA and 84.5 MPH average exit velocity.
I can’t imagine a scenario where Manoah maintains both a .538 SLG against his slider and an 84.5 MPH average exit velocity with his slider, and his (admittedly limited) career track record suggests the former is the outlier. While Manoah’s slider has room for improvement too, the pitch doesn’t seem to be nearly as problematic as his fastball, and I suspect the key to improvement for Manoah’s slider is improvements to his fastball. The slider is good, but a viable fastball is necessary to deceive hitters.
Verdict:
It really did seem like the sky was falling for Manoah during May and June, and while Friday’s start was a positive sign, fantasy players should not take this one outing and assume Manoah is fixed. His fastball velocity and location did not change much in this start, and his four-seam fastball has been his biggest issue this season. Detroit is one of the worst offenses against right-handed pitching by almost every metric, and it’s doubtful that Manoah’s approach would work against a more potent lineup.
While more fantasy players have hung on to Manoah than I would’ve expected at a 77% roster rate, the move now should be selling high. Obviously, his value is nowhere near what it was at the beginning of the season, but the All-Star break could be a chance to sell Manoah based on this start and name recognition, and we’re at a point in the season where a desperate fellow player might make an aggressive move to try and save their season. If I had Manoah on a team, I’d try and swing a deal. Otherwise, he’s far too volatile to rely on outside of streaming matchups.
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