Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Advanced Metrics Second-Half Preview

July 10, 2023

Connelly Doan examines first-half fantasy baseball pitcher studs and duds to identify how they may perform in the second half for Week 16.

Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. As we head into the All-Star break and a quick fantasy baseball reprieve, I want to take the time to analyze a couple of overall Statcast Studs and Duds from the first half of the season.

We now have half a season's worth of data, which may seem like a lot. However, there is still plenty of time for things to change and numbers to regress. This presents excellent opportunities for fantasy managers to take advantage of pivotal buy-low and sell-high trades. Every move counts as the weeks dwindle away leading up to the fantasy playoffs.

Fantasy managers won't have to worry about setting their lineups over the next couple of days, but they don't have to stop diving into player analyses and trade strategy! Let's take a look at some of the first half's biggest Studs and Duds and try to understand how they may perform in the second half.

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First-Half Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 9, 2023.

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

8-7, 3.09 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 20.8% Strikeout Rate

George Kirby is having a great season overall, earning himself his first All-Star appearance. The 25-year-old has compiled a 3.09 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while averaging 6 1/3 innings pitched per start over 17 starts. He seems to be carrying over the initial success he found last season, much to the delight of Mariners fans and fantasy managers. Can they expect him to follow up his stellar first half with an equally impressive second half?

There are a number of things to unpack after taking a closer look at Kirby's numbers. First is the low strikeout rate. He was able to generate a respectable 24.5% strikeout rate in his 2022 debut season, but that has dropped considerably to 20.8%. This seems odd from a surface look. Kirby's overall swinging-strike rate has only dropped by 0.4% from 9.7% to 9.3% and his CSW% is actually 1.4% higher than it was in 2022.

Looking deeper, I'm actually a bit surprised Kirby's strikeout rate was as high as it was in 2022 based on his pitch arsenal. Kirby relies heavily on his four-seam fastball and sinker and generates the majority of his strikeouts with those pitches. The thing that stands out to me is his middling secondary options. Kirby's slider and curveball have generated swinging-strike rates of just 5.9% and 6.9%, respectively. He has seen markedly worse results with those pitches compared to his fastballs.

The other thing that stands out is Kirby's batted-ball profile. He has allowed about league-average contact with a 12.5-degree launch angle. However, he works up in the zone with his fastballs and has kept his slider in the middle of the plate. Consequently, his expected batting average and expected slugging percentage are in the bottom 27 and 37 percent of baseball, respectively.

Kirby has delivered valuable innings for fantasy managers in both points and roto leagues this season, although there are some signs that he has overperformed. I wouldn't expect above-average strikeout numbers from him given his pitch arsenal, and his 3.71 xERA and 3.83 SIERA indicate that his batted-ball profile may catch up to him at some point.

Kirby would still be a useful fantasy starter even if that regression fully happened in the second half, but I would consider trying to sell high on him. I am not all that concerned with Kirby but would take a more seasoned starter or a strong hitter-pitcher package for him to bolster a second-half roster.

Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs

9-2, 2.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 22.0% Strikeout Rate 

Justin Steele is another first-time All-Star making an appearance in this article. He has been excellent for the Cubs, going 9-2 with a 2.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 22.0% strikeout rate while relying on just two pitches. I have mentioned the slimmer margins of error for two-pitch pitchers throughout this series (more to come on that later), but Steele has navigated expertly to this point. Will it continue for the second half?

Steele's two pitches aren't overpowering, but they are extremely deceptive. His fastball only averages 92 mph, but his 2,398 RPM spin rate is in the 82nd percentile of baseball. His slider gets a ton of horizontal sweep with 15.2 inches of break, which is 131% above league average. Pairing this with a solid pitch location has enabled Steele to succeed. 

Justin Steele's 5Ks thru 3. pic.twitter.com/zRvpvo9lxI

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 30, 2023

Ultimately, I would be surprised if Steele finished the season with an ERA as low as what it currently is, but I do not have any concerns about him continuing to find success. He is a two-pitch pitcher, but those two pitches get a lot of spin on them and are located well. He may not be an elite fantasy option but he should continue to serve as a higher-end, consistent option for fantasy managers throughout the second half.

First-Half Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 9, 2023.

Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox

5-8, 6.03 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 27.9% Strikeout Rate

By this point, fantasy managers are likely very aware of what Lance Lynn has done (and hasn't done) in the first half of the season. The veteran has had a rough go of things overall with a 6.03 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 18 starts. However, he has managed an above-average 27.9% strikeout rate and has pitched almost six innings per start. Put it all together and fantasy managers are in a tough situation. What should they do with Lynn for the second half?

Obviously, the results have not been what fantasy managers wanted, but trying to pinpoint the issue is difficult. Lynn has continued to be a fastball-heavy pitcher as he always has been. The velocity, spin rates, and location on those pitches have all been similar to what they were last season. Further, his batted-ball profile is almost identical to 2022. Lynn has allowed middling hard contact throughout his career but has found success, so this doesn't seem to be a culprit.

The elevated WHIP is what stands out but the why is hard to find. His 8.1% walk rate is definitely higher than his 3.7% mark in 2022 but is right in line with his 8.2% career mark. This means that Lynn is giving up relatively more hits than in previous seasons. This is reflected in an elevated .328 BABIP and 20.0% HR/FB rate compared to .299 and 10.8% career marks. As previously mentioned, nothing has changed in Lynn's batted-ball profile, so the worse results on batted balls don't make sense.

Lynn presents a tough situation in that his results have hurt fantasy managers overall but there isn't a particular explanation as to why those results have occurred. He has continued to allow about league-average hard contact while pitching relatively deep into games with high strikeout numbers.

I hesitate to call Lynn a buy-low candidate, but wouldn't mind adding him as a bench option for cheap to see if things turn around for him. Even with his struggles, I think Lynn still holds fantasy value in points leagues at this time given his strikeout skills and ability to pitch deep into games.

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

7-1, 4.34 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 21.5% Strikeout Rate

I recently wrote about Cristian Javier but feel he should be highlighted again for a second-half preview. His 7-1 record is what fantasy managers have come to expect from him, but his 4.34 ERA and 21.5% strikeout rate are anything but. Fantasy managers are likely worrying, but what should they do about Javier?

As I mentioned earlier, starters have a much slimmer margin of error if they only throw two pitches. Javier had managed to be a dominant strikeout pitcher only relying on a fastball and slider until this season. The issue is that he has seen decreased results with both. Looking into his fastball, the velocity has been down about one mph in 2023 compared to 2022 and the spin rate is down about 100 RPM. His swinging-strike rate with the pitch has dipped to 11.9% and he has gotten worse results overall with it.

Things have been even worse for his slider. He has also seen a spin rate decrease on this pitch, leading to about two fewer inches of horizontal break. He has also failed to locate the pitch, leaving it primarily in the middle of the plate, rather than painting the outside corner for right-handed hitters like he did in 2022. Javier’s realized and expected results on the pitch have been surprisingly good, but his swinging-strike rate on the pitch has dropped from 16.9% to 10.8%.

Unlike Lynn, there are clear signs as to why Javier has not performed as well this season. He has gotten decreased results from both of his main pitches, leaving nothing to fall back on. This has led to a big dip in strikeouts and an increase in damaging contact with a .283 BABIP compared to a .240 career mark.

I would maybe consider buying very low on Javier, but I am not confident that he will be able to substantially correct things. For fantasy managers who currently roster Javier, I think his value to too low to make it worth selling him. I would hold onto him and hope he can get even partially back to his old self in the second half.

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