RADIO
Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 15, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
We had some awesome interleague action this weekend, including two surprising starts from NL arms beating up on AL lineups. First, we'll look at Jack Flaherty's scoreless outing against the Yankees. Then, we'll break down Tommy Henry's big night against the Angels.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 07/03/2023.
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Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals – 33% Rostered
2023 Stats (prior to this start): 80 IP, 4.95 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 10.1% K-BB%
07/01 vs. NYY: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
Flaherty was in control Saturday night, firing six scoreless innings and picking up his fifth victory against the Bronx Bombers. This was a much-needed outing for Flaherty, who allowed 12 earned runs over 10.1 innings in his previous two starts. It’s been an up-and-down year for Flaherty, who has gone from fantasy mainstay to volatile fringe arm.
While the Cardinals are exuding disarray organizationally this season, Flaherty has followed a similar path individually. We know the talent is there, but the outcomes have been less than ideal. Is Flaherty back on the right path, or was this just another pitcher taking advantage of a depleted Yankees lineup?
A star pitcher in high school, Flaherty was a first-round pick by St. Louis back in 2014 and was a highly touted pitching prospect throughout his minor league career. That potential became a reality as Flaherty had the look of a burgeoning ace when he first began his MLB career. Between 2018-19 Flaherty had a 3.01 ERA over 347.1 innings and was considered a top-20 fantasy starter. Injuries have derailed his progress since, as Flaherty has thrown just 240.2 innings since 2019, with a shoulder injury the primary driver behind his missed time. Despite the injuries, Flaherty has shown flashes of his former self at times, such as last Saturday.
At his best, Flaherty fools opponents with a steady diet of mid-90s fastballs and a sharp slider that had batters swinging out of their shoes. He rounds out his repertoire with a loopy knuckle curve, a show-me changeup, and an all-new cutter he debuted this season. It was mostly about the slider, curve, and fastball in this one for Flaherty, as he threw those pitches a combined 86% of the time.
While Flaherty certainly has a deep arsenal, one pitch has always stood above the rest, and that is his slider. In 2019, the year Flaherty finished 4th in Cy Young voting, one could’ve made a case that Flaherty had the best slider in the majors. That season, batters hit just .184 with a .226 xwOBA and a 23.3% swinging strike rate against Flaherty’s slider. Those numbers are in another universe compared to how Flaherty’s slider is performing today.
This season, opponents are hitting .253 with a .270 xBA, .413 xSLG, and .352 xwOBA off Flaherty’s slider. The most concerning metric in this writer’s eyes is Flaherty’s 12.9% swinging strike rate with his slider this season. Not only is that a far cry from his peak, but it’s also a pitiful mark for a slider. Things aren’t trending positively either, as Flaherty earned just two whiffs on 31 sliders in Saturday's start.
So, what’s wrong with Flaherty’s slider, and can he fix it? It might not be easy. Flaherty has lost four and a half inches of drop and an inch and a half of break on his slider compared to his 2019 peak. And hey, maybe 2019 is an unfair benchmark to hold Flaherty against. We can’t expect a career year every year after all. Regression after overperformance is one thing, but the descent of Flaherty’s slider goes beyond numbers normalizing to his true talent level. Numbers and figures are one thing, but, as Oscar Wilde said, a GIF is worth a thousand words. Below is a comparison of a Flaherty slider from 2019 (top) to one from this most recent start (bottom).
It's like Flaherty went from firing lethal rounds to shooting bean bags. This leads us back to the burning question: is this fixable? Maybe, but Flaherty isn’t showing us any indication that he’s on the path of improvement. The slider performed no better and moved no better in this start than in previous ones. Perhaps he needs to get healthy, or perhaps he needs to work on his mechanics (he’s added half an inch to his delivery extension on the slider), but Flaherty is not showing signs of either thus far.
The slider may just be one pitch, but it’s the make-or-break pitch for Flaherty. Those interested in Flaherty should track his slider usage, movement, and performance from start to start as it’ll be the first sign of a rebound. Another factor that suggests either injury or mechanical issues (or both) is Flaherty’s loss of control on the mound. Flaherty kept his walk rate below 10% every year between 2018-21 but has had a 12.5% walk rate since Opening Day 2022. 2022-23 are also the only seasons where Flaherty’s zone rate slips below 40%. Ultimately, there are too many problems in this profile for Flaherty to be a reliable fantasy starter at this time.
Verdict:
No, Jack Flaherty isn’t back, and he doesn’t seem all that close to being back either. Flaherty’s slider, the pitch that made him a frontline starter, has lost significant movement over the last few years, perhaps as a result of injuries Flaherty has suffered. His strikeout potential has nosedived as the slider went from a dominant weapon to a hittable dud. Flaherty’s control has also slipped considerably, suggesting that he’s either struggling with physical degradation due to injuries, or he’s struggling mechanically.
There may be elements of both in his game at this point. For now, Flaherty’s name carries more value than his game. His wild, hittable pitching style is unreliable, and he has one of MLB’s weakest defensive clubs behind him. He’s not the worst streaming option in the world against a weak opponent, but no one should feel enthusiastic about having to use him either.
Tommy Henry, Arizona Diamondbacks – 9% Rostered
2023 Stats (prior to this start): 62.2 IP, 4.31 ERA, 5.45 FIP, 6.8% K-BB%
06/30 @ LAA: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Henry had one of his best starts all season last Friday, allowing just one run over five and two-thirds innings for the victory, improving his record to 5-1 on the year. The eight strikeouts represent a career-high for Henry, who had an uncharacteristic 12.6% swinging strike rate in this game. Was this a sign of things to come for the unsung southpaw, or just a fortunate night for an otherwise unremarkable pitcher?
After a strong college career with the Michigan Wolverines, Henry was selected in the fifth round of the 2019 MLB Draft by Arizona. Despite college success, Henry never had much attention from scouts as a prospect. Scouts rarely clamor over soft-tossing lefties like Henry to begin with, and Henry’s 4.66 ERA across all minor league levels made him easy to overlook. Heck, Henry had a 6.33 ERA at Triple-A this season prior to his promotion. While Henry’s path and background are unexciting on the surface, he still has a 1.96 ERA over his last three starts, which is enough to at least raise an eyebrow.
Henry works with a four-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider. Averaging just 90.8 MPH with his fastball, Henry isn’t exactly Aroldis Chapman on the mound. For Henry, it’s more about finding success with secondary pitches. His most frequently used secondary pitch this season has been the changeup at 20.3% usage, however, that appears to be changing for Henry. After throwing his slider just 9.9% of the time in his first 10 appearances, Henry has thrown his slider 23.4% of the time over his last three starts, the change in pitch mix coinciding with his recent hot streak.
Could Henry’s recent success be as simple as increased slider usage? Incorporating the slider more frequently isn’t a bad idea for Henry, as opponents have struggled mightily with the pitch this season. Batters are hitting just .190 with a .357 SLG and .231 wOBA off Henry’s slider, along with a .197 xBA and .229 xwOBA. The pitch stands out for its exceptional vertical movement and its sharp break away from left-handed batters. Here’s an example from this start.
That’s a pretty nasty pitch. Nastier than anything one would typically expect from a left-hander who is dishing out 90 MPH heat and sporting a 17% K rate on the year. It’s hard not to wonder whether a higher strikeout rate is a possibility for Henry at some point in the future. While his 1.96 K/BB ratio and 10.7% swinging strike rate are nothing special, Henry does have an impressive 31.9% chase rate this season. He also has a chase rate of 38% or higher on all pitches other than his fastball. Over his last three starts, Henry has a 20.8% strikeout rate, compared to a paltry 15.6% strikeout rate prior to that stretch.
While the increased slider usage seems to be having a positive impact on Henry’s performance as of late, a greater emphasis on sliders also has an indirect benefit, which is less reliance on fastballs. Henry has thrown his fastball 12% less often over his last three starts, a perfect example of addition by subtraction. Batters have pulverized Henry’s fastball for a .314 AVG, .588 SLG, and .437 wOBA this season. Opponents also have an astonishing 26.1% line drive rate and have hit seven long balls off Henry’s heater thus far. Not only does Henry’s fastball fall short in the velocity department, but at 2129 RPM, his fastball falls well below league average for spin rate. Put simply, Henry’s fastball is substandard by just about every measure.
A decent career for a bad fastball starter isn’t unheard of, but it seems like a stretch for Henry at the current juncture. An increase in slider usage is a great start, as is his recent slider performance. Additionally, Henry’s changeup and curveball are both viable secondary options that have produced solid results this season. However, Henry lacks an exceptional trait that would allow him to ascend from fringe arm to reliable starter. The best “bad fastball” pitchers often excel greatly in one aspect of the game, such as command, limiting hard contact, and inducing groundballs. Henry does none of these things, and we can attribute a lot of his success to his .274 BABIP against and 81.6% LOB rate. His recent hot streak is a little encouraging, but he still had a 4.61 xFIP and 1.5 HR/9 during that three-game stretch. He is improving, but he’s still not mixed-league material.
Verdict:
Henry’s recent emphasis on sliders and secondary pitches has been a breath of fresh air for an unheralded and easily forgotten arm. His 1.96 ERA and 3.2 K/BB over his last three starts is encouraging, however, Henry suffers from a major flaw that isn’t easily overcome; he has a bad fastball. Henry’s 90.8 MPH four-seamer does little to strike fear in a batter’s heart, and his 18th-percentile spin rate does no favors for its formidability.
Henry’s secondary pitches are solid, but not good enough to overcome a fastball this bad. Henry does not stand out in terms of command, control, ground, or hard-hit rate, making it tough to believe he’s ready to overcome his fastball. I wouldn’t mind using Henry as a streamer, especially versus lineups that are weak against left-handed pitchers, but his value doesn’t extend beyond streaming in standard mixed leagues at this time.
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