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Welcome to our Underdog Fantasy MLB DFS prop picks for Tuesday, June 20, 2023. Welcome back to our DFS series covering Underdog Fantasy contests! We will continue to focus on the MLB DFS props offered on Underdog called Higher/Lower (Over/Under).
Higher/Lower is traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 6x your bet). Underdog Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win MLB DFS games. At Underdog Fantasy, you're not playing against other people - you're just playing against the projections.
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MLB DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Today
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Eury Perez 5.0 Strikeouts (LOWER)
Justin Verlander 5.5 Strikeouts (LOWER)
Francisco Lindor 0.5 Singles (LOWER)
As much as I am a fan of Eury Perez's potential, the odds might be against him in this matchup. The 20-year-old has pitched very well in his last four starts, only allowing one earned run in 21 innings, but his pitch counts have routinely been lower than that of a typical starter. Perez is facing the Toronto Blue Jays, who lead the league in hits against right-handed pitching. The Blue Jays are also top-10 in home runs, batting average, and OPS against right-handers. A tough matchup and capped pitch count could prevent Perez from reaching this strikeout threshold.
Justin Verlander in 2023 looks different from the Justin Verlander we've come to expect. The veteran pitcher has continued his downward trend in strikeout rate, carrying his lowest K/9 since 2015. The 40-year-old has reached six strikeouts in three of eight starts this season, and he's facing the Houston Astros on Tuesday. The Astros are not the feared team they once were when Verlander was on the team, but they're no slouch either. Jose Altuve and Jose Abreu also have decent numbers against him.
Francisco Lindor has been hot lately, homering in his last two games, but he's facing Framber Valdez on Tuesday. Valdez is one of the best pitchers in baseball when it comes to inducing ground balls, with a GB% of 57.7%. Lindor has the lowest GB% of his career this season, but Valdez is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball, and Lindor has not had success against him in the limited at-bats he's had.
Luis Arraez 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (HIGHER)
Seth Lugo 3.5 Strikeouts (HIGHER)
Freddie Freeman 0.5 Singles (HIGHER)
Luis Arraez is possibly the best contact hitter we've seen since Tony Gwynn. After going 5-for-5 again on Monday night, Arraez brought his average back up to .400. He is red-hot and might not slow down for a while. Arraez is facing Yusei Kikuchi on Tuesday. The 26-year-old second baseman has gone 1-for-4 against Kikuchi in the past, but he's batting .375 against left-handed pitching this season. Hitting leading off gives Arraez more opportunities for hits and runs, so this seems like an easy pick.
Seth Lugo is scheduled to return from the injured list on Tuesday against the San Francisco Giants. The Giants have the second-most strikeouts in baseball and the eighth-most strikeouts against right-handed pitching. Lugo is not a prominent strikeout artist, but he owns a respectable 8.21 K/9 and has reached at least four strikeouts in six of eight starts this year. Since this is the first start off the injured list, Lugo will likely have a cap on his pitch count, but four strikeouts are still attainable for him.
Once again, Freddie Freeman has been one of baseball's best hitters. This season, Freeman is top-five in hits, batting average, and OPS. On Tuesday, the Dodgers face the Los Angeles Angels starter, Reid Detmers. Detmers is a left-handed pitcher, which would be an issue for the typical left-handed hitter, but Freeman is not a typical hitter. This season against left-handed pitching, Freeman is batting .319 with a 1.066 OPS. The 33-year-old has also hit nine of his 13 home runs against left-handers. Freeman should continue to be productive on Tuesday.
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