X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Breakout Hitters Watch for Fantasy Baseball - Jack Suwinski, James Outman, and More

James Outman - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects News

Jon Anderson looks at fantasy baseball breakout hitters, risers, and potential sleepers for the rest of the fantasy baseball season, written in Week 5 of the season. He looks into Statcast data to identify hitter breakouts.

It is Week 3 of Breakout Hitters Watch, and so far I'm feeling pretty good about it. This post is one of my favorites to write because we really get into the data and locate some very interesting hitters to add. I learn a ton from this post every week, so I hope the rest of you are enjoying it as well.

There will be different player profiles included in all of this. I try to keep the majority of the names as hitters that are available on waivers. Or at the very least, players you could trade for before the breakout really hits. However, sometimes I just want to highlight already highly regarded hitters that seem to be going to the next level. These would be considered "buy highs" that you could still try to pry away from their owner with a fair offer.

For full transparency, I also track the picks every week, so you can go back and see who I picked. There will be some misses, but hopefully, we'll have enough hits to make this a worthwhile endeavor. I'll give you the tracker first and then we'll get into the five names we're picking for this week.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

2023 Breakout Picks Tracker

Week Date Breakout Picks
Week 3 4/12 Logan O'Hoppe, Miguel Vargas, Nolan Gorman, Josh Lowe, Brandon Marsh
Week 4 4/19 Jarred Kelenic, Ian Happ, Luis Garcia, Kerry Carpenter, Brent Rooker

Week 5 Picks

Jack Suwinski, Pittsburgh Pirates

There is no perfect statistic. Every statistic that measures a player's output that we talk about here is subject to randomness. In the game of baseball, almost anything can happen over a short sample size. That said, one of my favorite statistics to look at is Barrels Per Plate Appearances (Brl/PA). This is the percentage of your plate appearances that end with a barrel (a barrel is the best type of batted ball, about 70% of them go for hits and about 50% of them go for homers).

The league average Brl/PA sits at 5.9% at the time of this writing (this isn't going to move very much, we'll likely finish the year right around 6%). Here are the league leaders:

Player PA Brl/PA
Matt Chapman 93 21.5%
Giancarlo Stanton 54 16.5%
Brent Rooker 58 15.5%
Bryan Reynolds 94 14.9%
Max Muncy 88 14.8%
Sean Murphy 82 14.6%
Brandon Lowe 79 13.9%
Jack Suwinski 60 13.3%
Randy Arozarena 98 13.3%
Rafael Devers 98 13.3%

What you can see here is a list mostly of established power hitters. It's not easy to crack the top 10 even if you are talking about fewer than 100 PAs. The nice thing about this stat is that it includes strikeouts. You can put up a very good Brl% while striking out a ton because Brl% uses balls in play as the denominator instead of plate appearances. Since PA is the denominator here, strikeouts hurt you.

That's good for Suwinski because last year he struggled mightily with the strikeouts. I (as a Pirate fan from childhood) was worried that the strikeout rate would be majorly prohibitive this year.

So far, the K% is high again for Suwinski at 28%. That's an improvement from the 31% he posted last year, but it's not a major change. This early in the season, he could be above 32% with two bad games.

There is good news in the profile here as well, though. His swing decisions (the percentage of his swings that are at pitches in the zones) have improved from 72% to 82%. His chase rate is down from 25% to 14%. His GB% is down from 43% to 31%. So he's swinging at better pitches and getting the ball in the air at a higher rate. Those are welcome signs.

He also has a solid 13% stolen base attempt rate this year. He isn't going to end up on first base very often with the strikeouts and the home run rate, but one thing I haven't mentioned yet is that his walk rate is very high so far at 18%.

One last note on Suwinski -- he's been miserable against left-handed pitching in his major league career (.114/.236/.267 with a 32% K%). That will have him on the bench most times when the Pirates face a lefty. Suwinski is best picked up in daily changes leagues where you can just play him in those spots against righties (he has slashed .246/.338/.507 against righties in his young career).

 

James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers

We are probably a week or two late on this one, as I am guessing Outman is owned in the vast majority of your leagues. At the beginning of this, I talked about Brl/PA. Outman isn't very far behind the league leaders there at 11.8%. He's slashed an elite .311/.400/.703 with seven homers and two steals so far.

He also has popped up with a really good eye at the plate:

The downside with Outman is, once again, the strikeout rate. It's currently at 28% and his contact rate is down to 67%. These numbers were both much worse last week, and that's why it took me this long to get to him -- so it's good to see some improvement there. With as much power as Outman has, he can probably sustain strong production even with a 28% or so K%. Any higher than that and you're getting into murky territory.

Outman is a young player that has a long history of success in professional baseball, so he certainly should be rostered and started right now -- but don't commit to him too much if the K% bloats back over 30%.

 

LaMonte Wade Jr., San Francisco Giants

There are fewer hitters really popping out at me this week, so we're reaching a bit further into the bag to pluck out some potential hitter improvers.

Wade Jr. is 28 years old and probably past the point in his career where we can think he's really improved over the offseason. However, for the last few years, he has been a pretty interesting hitter when healthy.

 

Much like Suwinski, Wade Jr. missed his chance to prove that he can hit left-handed pitching (a career .338 OPS against lefties, laughably awful). He does hit quite well against righties with a career .807 OPS.

He might not get a single start this year against a left-handed starter, which makes him pretty tough to start in weekly leagues. However, he has gotten a few extra chances this year against lefties (13% of his PAs last year were against lefties, this year it is up to 28%). Even if he doesn't hit the lefties this year, his staying in the game when a lefty reliever comes in is big -- because it gives him a chance at an extra PA against another righty later in the game.

We mentioned above the nice plate discipline, and he's barreled the ball at a high rate early on (13.5%). He's not going to be a guy that takes your fantasy team to the next level. He's certainly an underrated piece in daily lineups leagues, and that's worth mentioning.

 

Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs

This is another name that probably isn't helping you very much. Hoerner was certainly drafted in your league, and his owner probably doesn't want anything to do with giving him up at this point -- but I have to mention what he's doing.

So far this season (prior to Tuesday's game), Hoerner is slashing .355/.400/.473 with two homers and nine stolen bases. His nine steals are the second-best in the league and his 33% stolen base attempt rate is the 10th-highest in the league. His strikeout rate is a ridiculous 7% and that is backed up by his 92% contact rate.

The power is obviously an issue here as Hoerner has just the two homers and a very low 3.5% Brl% so far. The good news is a non-awful 88-mile-per-hour average exit velocity and a 38% hard-hit rate that is certainly better than what you usually see from these 90%+ contact rate hitters. The power isn't a zero here, which is really all you're looking for with a player that hits for such a good batting average and steals so many bases.

Again, I don't think there's anything to do about Hoerner. But to me, it's not a bad idea to "overpay" a bit for him right now.  Maybe you swing a deal in your league for him if the Hoerner owner is hurting for power and has a surplus of steals. Hoerner is looking like a top-30 fantasy player right now. I don't believe it's ridiculous to think that's how he'll finish the season out in this new league environment.

 

Cody Bellinger, Chicago Cubs

I know, this is not my best work. Only a couple of these names really fit the criteria of "breakout" but I'm just giving you what the data is giving me. Bellinger, I suppose, is more of a "re-breakout."

What we wanted to see from Bellinger after the change of scenery was simple -- continued power output but a much-improved strikeout rate. And he's delivered that. So far this year in 92 PAs, Bellinger has a 14% strikeout rate. That's crazy. He's slashing .300/.380/.550 with five dingers and four steals. He's been one of the better fantasy players in the game, and I hadn't even realized that until now.

The contact rate is up seven full points from 72% to 79%, and he's chasing less (a five-point improvement). The Cubs are really clicking, and it looks like they made a great decision to give Bellinger a shot.

There is a good chance that the Bellinger owner in your league might not actually trust these improvements (I'm still skeptical, so he would be someone I'm willing to sell). That could give you a chance to acquire a very high-upside bat for a reasonable cost. I'm not guaranteeing that it's going to go super well from here on out. But as I said, the ceiling is enormous and the signs are all positive so far.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nolan Arenado

Ready for Second Half
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Back in Action to Begin Second Half
Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF