Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Domingo German and Johan Oviedo

April 20, 2023

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 3, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

We've got some exciting players to break down this week. We'll  be looking at Domingo German's perfecto bid against the Twins on Saturday, and we'll be looking at Johan Oviedo's 10-strikeout revenge game against his former team the Cardinals on Friday.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 04/17/2023.

Domingo German, New York Yankees – 15% Rostered

2022 Stats: 72.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 13.1% K-BB%
04/15 vs. MIN: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K

It was a career day for German, who carried a perfect game into the sixth while striking out 11 batters in 6.1 innings en route to his first victory of the season. In fact, German was pitching so well that Twins manager Rocco Baldelli asked the umpires to check German for foreign substances. The umps made German wash his hands and the good pitching continued, so if sticky stuff isn’t the secret, what exactly has gotten into Domingo German?

Originally acquired by the Yankees from Miami back in 2014 in the blockbuster Nathan Eovaldi-Martin Prado swap, German has been in and out of the rotation for the Bronx Bombers for the last five seasons, often flashing signs of upside but failing to find consistency. His role as a starter for the Yankees has always felt a little reluctant; they’d like to have someone better, but injuries or the trade market forced them back to German.

German’s strength on the mound has always been his stuff. Working with a four-pitch mix, German features a four-seam fastball, a curveball, a changeup, and a sinker. The centerpiece of his arsenal is the curveball, a pitch that batters have flailed helplessly at through his first three starts.

Thus far, opponents have a .143 AVG, .351 OPS, and a 20% swinging strike rate against German’s curveball. The most impressive stat is the 48.9% chase rate, which is up more than 10 percentage points compared to last year. Nearly half the time German throws a curveball out of the zone, a batter swings and misses.

German’s curveball has gone through some improvements this season. By nearly every measurable metric, the pitch has improved. He’s throwing it two MPH harder at 83.1 MPH, he’s added about seven inches of movement, and he’s increased the spin rate by over 100 RPM on average. It remains to be seen whether these gains hold over time, but this is the exact type of change we like to see in a pitcher. To visualize these changes, let’s compare one of German’s 2022 curveballs to one from this start.

2022:

2023:

It's not an eye-popping difference there, but what stands out the most is the movement change. The pitch has lost some of its loop and drop and moves a little sharper. The difference is most apparent in German’s pitch location, so let’s compare his 2023 curveball heatmap to his career prior to 2023.

2023:

2017-2022:

It’s only been three starts, but German seems more willing to attack the zone with this pitch. The zone rate on his curveball is up to 53% this season compared to 47.7% for German’s career. An increase in zone rate could indicate better confidence in command for German, who has struggled with command issues throughout his career.

So, German’s best pitch is getting better. That makes him a breakout, right? Not exactly. As previously mentioned, German has shown us flashes like this throughout his big league career, and yet here we are, wondering if he’s going to finally put it together. He’s clearly talented, but it will often come down to consistency with German.

Some of his worst flaws have already been on display this season, as German surrendered two home runs in 4.2 innings in his first start, and issued five free passes in three innings in his second outing.  Batters have hit .300 with a .900 SLG off German’s fastball thus far. Sure, it’s a small sample size, but batters have a .554 SLG all-time off German’s fastball. Furthermore, his career 1.60 HR/9 is the third-highest mark among active starting pitchers.

Verdict:

You will get the occasional gem from German, but there is a reason he went largely undrafted, a reason he can’t carve out a more secure role in New York, and a reason why we’re always wondering if this is finally the breakout for German. Sure, his curveball does look better and he’ll likely have a higher strikeout rate this season. Still, German has not yet proven that he’s corrected the issues that make him a fringe starter to begin with, and it will take more than an uptick in curveball spin rate for German to ascend past a waiver wire arm to churn. For now, German is best used as a spot starter against weak lineups or in good situations, and one shouldn’t spend more than 1-2% of their FAB on him.

Johan Oviedo, Pittsburgh Pirates – 25% Rostered

2022 Stats: 56 IP, 3.21 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 12.8% K-BB%

04/14 @ STL: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

Oviedo was incredible Friday night, shutting down his former team for one run over seven innings with a career-high 10 strikeouts. Oviedo was the tough-luck loser in that one, but his start certainly has many curious about the young right-hander’s potential. Can Oviedo go from an afterthought to a fantasy stud?

Originally signed as an international free agent by the Cardinals, Pittsburgh acquired Oviedo for Jose Quintana and Chris Stratton at last year's trade deadline. Seems like a small price to pay for the rebuilding Buccos, especially since Oviedo had a 3.53 ERA as a starter last season. He’s carried that success into 2023 and looks like the ace of Pittsburgh’s rotation.

Oviedo works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, a slider, a changeup, and a curveball. Oviedo is a hard thrower who’s only gaining velocity; his fastball is averaging 96.6 MPH on the gun this season, which is a 0.5 MPH increase compared to last season and a nearly 2 MPH increase from his time with St. Louis. That velocity is nice to have, especially considering that Oviedo is working with two plus breaking balls.

The slider is Oviedo’s most-used breaking ball, and his most-used pitch so far in 2023 at 38%. Like his fastball, Oviedo throws his slider hard. At 89.2 MPH on average, it ranks fourth in slider velocity among starters. Also like his fastball, Oviedo has gained velocity with the pitch this season, seeing a jump from 85.7 MPH last season to 89.2 MPH this year. Let’s have a look at Oviedo’s slider in action from this start.

That is pure filth. Seriously, that’s the type of pitch you expect to see from a Cy Young candidate, not a guy who was traded for half a season of Jose Quintana.

Batters are hitting .273 off the slider so far, but with a .191 xBA, .274 xSLG, and a 20% swinging strike rate, there’s a lot to like about the performance of this pitch beyond its batted ball outcomes. Oviedo’s slider has the makings of a legitimate strikeout weapon, and his increases in velocity and usage are encouraging signs for the future.

It’s not just about the slider for Oviedo, as the big righty also has a plus curveball at his disposal. The pitch has an astonishing .056 AVG against so far this season, along with a .122 xBA, .152 xSLG, and 17.2% swinging strike rate. It doesn’t get much better than that for a curveball, and while this is admittedly a small sample, opponents have a .133 AVG and .396 OPS against Oviedo’s curveball all time.

Like his other pitches, Oviedo did gain some velocity with his curveball, however, velocity isn’t the key focus here. Instead, focus on the 23.2% usage rate on his curveball through three starts. Prior to 2023, Oviedo had only used his curveball more than 18% of the time in a start once. This year, he’s used it at least 18% of the time in every start, including 30.1% usage against the Cardinals, by far a career-high.

His curveball usage rate this year is more than double what it had been in any other season. This approach means Oviedo is firing in one of his plus breaking balls about 60% of the time, and considering that he pairs those breaking balls with a 96.6 MPH heater, Oviedo’s repertoire looks quite strong.

While Oviedo’s stuff looks great, he suffers the same problem many big-bodied pitchers with good stuff suffer from, which is poor control. He’s only issued one walk in his last two starts, but he also issued four free passes in 4.2 innings during his first start. Coming into the season Oviedo had a career 4.4 BB/9 and an 11.1% walk rate as a starter. Even as a minor leaguer Oviedo couldn’t find the zone, with 4.7 BB/9 across all levels. Perhaps his velocity spike and emphasis on breaking balls can help him cut down on the walks by overpowering hitters, but we need to see him do it over a longer period before we can look past this issue.

Verdict:

For being a virtual no-name heading into the year, Oviedo has some impressive stuff at his disposal. There aren’t many starters who can touch 91 with their slider available on waivers. In fact, aren’t many starters who can touch 91 with their sliders at all. Oviedo pairs that slider with a plus curve and a 96 MPH fastball, making him an attractive early-season waiver wire option. He’s the type of player one could add early in the season and find useful all year. Oviedo is worth about 7-12% of one’s FAB budget in a standard league.

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