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What is up, pitcher people? It is that grand time of the week when I get to check in with my weekly Top 101 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks breakdown as we're all scurrying about pretending like we can play it cool and not overreact. Let's dive into the second 2023 edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
I'm still not going to frame this with a heaping of small-sample data for 2023. Obviously, that is a big driver for me as an input but I want it to feel robust before I just slap a bunch of numbers next to the names for you to digest. We'll start with some analysis and then hit the table.
These ranks are geared towards traditional 5x5 leagues and I typically exclude most injured SPs, lest a return is imminent. However, it's still early so I'll try to loosely peg where I value injured arms amidst the fray. For now, let's dive into my top 101 SPs and be sure we're starting strong.
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
Another week into the season means slightly more stabilization, but there are still plenty of new velocities, repertoires, and batted-ball data nuisances to chew on.
Quick hits before some longer thoughts:
*Corbin Burnes looked good on Tuesday, providing a much-needed confidence booster. Aaron Nola did not and he’ll take three sketchy outings into Great American Ball Park on April 16. Julio Urias cares not for sabermetrics and continues to post exceptional stats. Give Kyle Wright (and almost anyone coming off the IL) at least one start to shake off the rust.
-Going into Tuesday, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs led all starters in xwOBA at .267 and .195, respectively. We all know it’s only been two starts against meager competition but also…wow. Do a dance if you leaned into Tampa Bay’s optimization of their arsenals and consider selling high if you’re in a league with overreactions.
-Nick Lodolo comes next at .209 on that xwOBA leaderboard with a .165 xBA behind the .217 batting average allowed across 51 plate appearances. He followed up a strong first start (5.0 IP, 2.0 ER, 9/2 K/BB) with seven innings of shutout ball against Philadelphia. He struck out 12 (!) with only two walks against the defending NL champs. Two starts in hitter-friendly parks, two solid showings. He looks more consistent out of the gate than Hunter Greene.
-Pablo Lopez logged a season-high 10 strikeouts after ringing up eight in each of his first two trips to the bump in ‘23. The 27-year-old looks comfortable in a Minnesota uniform, allowing one earned run over 20 innings of work thus far. No, the .184 BABIP won’t last but also his sweeper is a guillotine pitch out there. Some guys take a while to find reliable command with it but he’s shown nothing but control so far. We all love to see it.
Another great outing for Pablo Lopez.
7.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, BB, 10 K
37% Whiff, 37% CSWAll five offerings had a whiff rate of 27% of higher and a CSW of 31% or higher.
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) April 12, 2023
-Chris Bassitt is flashing warning signs early. He got hit hard by St. Louis in his first start, yielding nine earned on four home runs with no strikeouts over 3 ⅓ IP. Then he survived five walks over six frames against the Angels, escaping with two earned runs (three total) and the win. Having identical 11% rates for HR%, K%, and BB% is not ideal!
His velocity started lower last year as well before climbing to the 93-94 mph range by May. Except he posted a 26/7 K/BB with a 2.25 ERA in 24 innings last April. The command simply isn’t there. I think he’ll find his mechanics again but if he can’t handle Detroit’s lineup on Thursday, then I’m panicking.
-Lance Lynn put some fears to rest with 10 strikeouts and zero walks against the Twins on Tuesday. He did allow two home runs and seven hits so all is not stellar, but the whiffs and lack of walks are a big deal after 6/4 and 5/3 K/BB ratios in his first two outings. A step in the right direction here.
-Garrett Whitlock got tagged for five runs (three homers) over five innings of work in his first start of 2023. He had five strikeouts to zero walks but lived too comfortably in the zone, setting up big swings from Tampa. All in all, we saw more good than bad for Whitlock against a surging Rays team and he’s only 45% rostered on Yahoo! You’ll recall his 3.45 ERA/1.02 WHIP and 9.42 K/9 from last year’s 78 ⅓ IP. If he can ever improve on effectiveness beyond the first time through the order, then he can achieve greatness.
-Lucas Giolito might be scaring you, but that’s nothing compared to Jack Flaherty’s 13 walks in 10 innings! It’s a miracle that Flaherty has only allowed two runs to score with so much traffic ushered onto the basepaths. The Houdini Act can only last so long before it drags his ERA down in the muck that his WHIP currently resides in.
-Bryce Elder looks in far better form than Jared Shuster or Dylan Dodd and should remain in the rotation as Atlanta’s No. 5 after Michael Soroka returns. The 23-year-old has kept St. Louis and Cincinnati offenses off the scoreboard with a 50% groundball rate and 13/4 K/BB ratio through two turns. Having the Braves’ offense and bullpen supporting you is worth a flier to many.
-Kris Bubic has Twitter ablaze after blanking the Giants across six innings of two-hit ball with nine strikeouts and no free passes. He’d limited Toronto to two runs in his first outing but this most recent day has some wondering if he can jump a few tiers. Increased velocity, movement, a slider, more life on his fastball, more drop on the changeup, all of this is observable. It’s very possible we get a Brady Singer-like leap from Bubic in ‘23. Make the add and see!
Oh my, Kris Bubic.
✅Most whiffs on SUN
✍️Changeup velo⬆️ 2.3 mph
👀Changeup Whiff%➡️36%
✍️Curve velo⬆️2 mph
🔥Curve Whiff%➡️63%
👀4-Seam Whiff%➡️44%✅Dropping 4-seam usage & increasing curve, changeup, & slider. YLTSI. pic.twitter.com/WxTzzRSK2i
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) April 10, 2023
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 3
| Tier | Player | Rank | $ |
| 1 | Gerrit Cole | 1 | 45 |
| 1 | Jacob deGrom | 2 | 43 |
| 1 | Corbin Burnes | 3 | 42 |
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | 4 | 41 |
| 2 | Sandy Alcantara | 5 | 41 |
| 2 | Spencer Strider | 6 | 41 |
| 2 | Shane McClanahan | 7 | 39 |
| 2 | Max Scherzer | 8 | 37 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 9 | 36.5 |
| 2 | Julio Urias | 10 | 36 |
| 3 | Aaron Nola | 11 | 35 |
| 3 | Shane Bieber | 12 | 33 |
| 3 | Luis Castillo | 13 | 32 |
| 3 | Kevin Gausman | 14 | 31 |
| 3 | Cristian Javier | 15 | 31 |
| 3 | Dylan Cease | 16 | 30 |
| 3 | Yu Darvish | 17 | 28 |
| 3 | Zac Gallen | 18 | 27 |
| 4 | Justin Verlander | 19 | 26 |
| 4 | Brandon Woodruff | 20 | 24 |
| 4 | Framber Valdez | 21 | 23 |
| 4 | Nestor Cortes Jr. | 22 | 23 |
| 4 | Joe Musgrove | 23 | 22 |
| 4 | Alek Manoah | 24 | 22 |
| 4 | Max Fried | 25 | 21 |
| 4 | Clayton Kershaw | 26 | 20 |
| 4 | George Kirby | 27 | 20 |
| 4 | Carlos Rodon | 28 | 20 |
| 4 | Hunter Greene | 29 | 20 |
| 4 | Logan Webb | 30 | 19 |
| 4 | Jeffrey Springs | 31 | 19 |
| 5 | Jesus Luzardo | 32 | 19 |
| 5 | Freddy Peralta | 33 | 18 |
| 5 | Drew Rasmussen | 34 | 17 |
| 5 | Chris Sale | 35 | 17 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | 36 | 17 |
| 5 | Joe Ryan | 37 | 16.5 |
| 5 | Pablo Lopez | 38 | 16 |
| 5 | Kodai Senga | 39 | 15.5 |
| 5 | Nick Lodolo | 40 | 15 |
| 5 | Luis Severino | 41 | 14.5 |
| 5 | Blake Snell | 42 | 14.5 |
| 6 | Chris Bassitt | 43 | 14 |
| 6 | Lance Lynn | 44 | 14 |
| 6 | Robbie Ray | 45 | 14 |
| 6 | Dustin May | 46 | 13.5 |
| 6 | Jordan Montgomery | 47 | 13 |
| 6 | Reid Detmers | 48 | 13 |
| 6 | Andrew Heaney | 49 | 11 |
| 6 | Sonny Gray | 50 | 11 |
| 6 | Charlie Morton | 51 | 10.5 |
| 6 | Kyle Wright | 52 | 10.5 |
| 7 | Brady Singer | 53 | 10 |
| 7 | Patrick Sandoval | 54 | 10 |
| 7 | Nathan Eovaldi | 55 | 10 |
| 7 | Garrett Whitlock | 56 | 9.5 |
| 7 | Grayson Rodriguez | 57 | 9 |
| 7 | Alex Cobb | 58 | 8.5 |
| 7 | Marcus Stroman | 59 | 8 |
| 7 | Luis Garcia | 60 | 8 |
| 7 | Jon Gray | 61 | 8 |
| 7 | Tyler Glasnow | 62 | 8 |
| 7 | Tony Gonsolin | 63 | 7 |
| 7 | Tyler Mahle | 64 | 6 |
| 7 | Triston McKenzie | 65 | 6 |
| 8 | Sean Manaea | 66 | 6 |
| 8 | Lucas Giolito | 67 | 5.5 |
| 8 | Merrill Kelly | 68 | 5 |
| 8 | Graham Ashcraft | 69 | 5 |
| 8 | Hunter Brown | 70 | 5 |
| 8 | Kenta Maeda | 71 | 4.5 |
| 8 | Jose Urquidy | 72 | 4.5 |
| 8 | Drey Jameson | 73 | 4.5 |
| 8 | Seth Lugo | 74 | 4.5 |
| 8 | Kris Bubic | 75 | 4.5 |
| 8 | Justin Steele | 76 | 4 |
| 8 | Tyler Anderson | 77 | 4 |
| 8 | Miles Mikolas | 78 | 3.5 |
| 8 | Eric Lauer | 79 | 3.5 |
| 8 | Jameson Taillon | 80 | 3.5 |
| 8 | Zach Eflin | 81 | 3 |
| 8 | Anthony DeSclafani | 82 | 3 |
| 8 | Bryce Elder | 83 | 3 |
| 9 | Trevor Rogers | 84 | 2.5 |
| 9 | Michael Kopech | 85 | 2.5 |
| 9 | David Peterson | 86 | 2.5 |
| 9 | Brayan Bello | 87 | 2.5 |
| 9 | Michael Wacha | 88 | 2 |
| 9 | Hayden Wesneski | 89 | 2 |
| 9 | Jack Flaherty | 90 | 1.5 |
| 9 | Martin Perez | 91 | 1.5 |
| 9 | Jhony Brito | 92 | 1.5 |
| 9 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 93 | 1.5 |
| 9 | MacKenzie Gore | 94 | 1.5 |
| 9 | Kyle Gibson | 95 | 1.5 |
| 9 | Carlos Carrasco | 96 | 1 |
| 9 | Josiah Gray | 97 | 1 |
| 9 | Roansy Contreras | 98 | 1 |
| 9 | Steven Matz | 99 | 1 |
| 9 | Noah Syndergaard | 100 | 1 |
| 9 | Tylor Megill | 101 | 1 |
As I said last week: Don't forget to breathe. We've seen most of these arms 2-3 times max and most prior convictions were rooted in a sound thought process. A few folks definitely stunk enough to warrant some panic, but even then, you're likely benching rather than dropping.
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