Florio's Bullpen Report - Monitoring Early Season Bullpen Usage (Week 3)

April 13, 2023

Michael F. Florio reviews bullpens that have changed, closers to add off the waiver wire, and relief pitchers who are useful for fantasy baseball heading into Week 3.

We are just two weeks into the baseball season, but it has been long enough to get some answers when it comes to questionable bullpens. Others have left us with even more questions. 

The important thing to remember is that while we only have two weeks of data to go by -- it is still two weeks of data. As I keep saying on RotoBaller Radio on Sirius XM (listen Sundays at 3 pm ET!), you would not spend a bunch of FAAB -- or maybe even notice -- if a random pitcher got a save in July. Paying close attention matters, but it is also important to understand that much is still being figured out both by fantasy players and managers themselves. 

The best way to approach bullpens this early is to keep a close eye on them and if someone gets a save chance -- throw a cheap bid on them. I typically tend to have a roster spot or two that I churn and burn using cheap bids of five to six percent or less -- until something sticks. It's the best edge to get from following bullpens so closely. You use those roster spots until a closer or two sticks and then you are set. 

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Changing Bullpens for Fantasy Baseball

The Nationals' bullpen has already seen some changes just two weeks into the season. Kyle Finnegan was expected to be the closer for the Nats and picked up their first save of the season. He was shelled in his next outing, allowing five runs and taking the loss. He then pitched in the eighth inning, setting up for Carl Edwards Jr., who picked up the save.

On Monday, we saw Edwards pitching in the eighth while Finnegan picked up the save. This is why you do not overreact to one save chance as Edwards became a waiver wire target last week. Right now, this situation is very murky, but I would take the shot on Finnegan over Edwards. Both are dicey, but Finnegan appears to be the safer bet for saves right now. Neither is worth more than a bid of less than 10 percent. 

The first Rangers' save of the season went to Will Smith, while the second went to Jose Leclerc. Both pitchers have been effective with a strikeout rate over 33 percent, a WHIP below 0.7, and neither has allowed a run so far this season. We are looking at a full-out committee right now. As long as both are putting up strong ratios and strikeouts while being in the mix for saves -- both are worth rostering in Roto formats. 

There is a committee in Arizona as the Diamondbacks have already had three pitchers pick up a save. Scott McGough, Drey Jameson, and Andrew Chafin all have at least one save -- only Chafin has multiple after picking up a save on Monday night. McGough pitched in the eighth inning.

They are clearly the top two options in this pen, but Chafin is the preferred option. Not only is Chafin striking out nearly half the batters he has faced, but he’s also yet to allow a run and has a 0.46 WHIP. He is the best arm in this bullpen and could quickly take over the bulk of save opportunities. While he is the top option, McGough is worth rostering in deeper roto formats as long as he is in the saves mix. 

The Mariners had to put Andres Munoz on the IL with a right deltoid strain. With him sidelined, that leaves Paul Sewald as the closer in Seattle. He is already very highly rostered, but for those in shallower leagues, check the waiver wire just in case. If anyone drops Munoz, he becomes a stash candidate as he provides great ratios and could quickly re-enter the saves scene in Seattle. 

The Rays are off to a historic start and have been blowing opponents out on a nightly basis. Due to that, they did not have a save chance until Monday night. In that game, the save went to Pete Fairbanks. Last week, I wrote that Fairbanks or Jason Adam would be the candidates to get saves here.

One chance does not mean that Fairbanks is the guy -- especially when talking about the Rays. However, it does have to instill some confidence in him. He is the preferred option moving forward, but both Rays relievers are worth rostering in roto formats. 

Michael Fulmer picked up the lone save for the Cubs this season. He then pitched the ninth with a one-run lead on Monday night, allowing a game-tying homer to Jarred Kelenic. Fulmer has been very good this season, pitching to a 2.08 ERA and 1.96 xERA with a 44 percent strikeout rate. The blown save isn’t a good thing, but it was one homer and the opportunity that he cares about. Fulmer is the Cubs' closer to roster moving forward. 

Speculative Saves for Fantasy Baseball 

The White Sox have a closer in Reynaldo Lopez, who has picked up both save chances for the team this season. However, Liam Hendriks is cancer-free and working his way back to a return. That is clearly bigger than baseball -- but it also means that their ace closer could soon be back. Remember, they opted not to put him on the 60-day IL. All of this is just to remind you to stash Hendriks if he is out there in your league. 

The Angels' bullpen is one of the toughest to figure out in baseball right now. I think many would say Carlos Estevez is the top option -- and I would agree. He has pitched to a 2.25 ERA with a 35 percent strikeout rate. But he has allowed a lot of base runners and has yet to actually pick up a save.

Jose Quijada and Tucker Davidson have for the Angels, though. They are in play as well. The Angels have said they do not want to overwork their bullpen arms early in the season, so it is likely we can see all three involved. I rank them Estevez, Quijada, and then Davidson, but this is a situation best left for the desperate until we get some more clarity. 

The Dodgers seem like one of those committees where there is one, but not really. We have seen Evan Phillips pick up two saves and Andre Jackson has one. Then there is Brusdar Graterol, who is a late-inning arm. However, Phillips is clearly looking like the top option and Dave Roberts even said he will save Phillips for the ninth at times. He is the top option here, but Graterol is an upside shot for those in deeper roto formats.

The Phillies have a ton of late-inning options. Craig Kimbrel, Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez, and Gregory Soto all have closing experiences. And it is certainly possible we see them all used at times this season. That is what they did last year. Kimbrel got the first save chance and he is the option to feel most confident in moving forward. Especially with Dominguez struggling out the gate as he was the biggest competition to Kimbrel of this group.

Kimbrel was a rollercoaster ride all season last year. There still have to be some concerns, especially since he has been struggling to generate swinging strikes. But as long as he is getting save chances, he is worth rostering. I rank them Kimbrel, Dominguez, Soto, and then Alvarado. This is a bullpen we are clearly going to have to monitor closer moving forward. 

We have seen both Scott Barlow and Aroldis Chapman pick up a save for the Royals this season. Neither has allowed a run, either. However, Chapman has been especially effective. He has a 1.06 xERA, 0.50 WHIP, and has struck out 57 percent of the batters he has faced -- that is the second-highest strikeout rate among relievers.

While Barlow has been very effective in his own right, Chapman is starting to resemble his old self. If he continues to pitch this way, the Royals could give him plenty of save chances -- if for no reason other than to build up his trade value. Both are worth rostering, but I'm leaning toward Chapman. In fact, I picked him up in a league myself this past weekend. 

Elite Strikeouts and Ratios 

Jose Alvarado leads all relievers with an 85 percent strikeout rate in four innings. Batters have swung and missed at 22 percent of his pitches this season. He currently has a 0.00 ERA, 0.30 xERA, 0.25 WHIP, and most importantly -- he has yet to allow a walk in four innings.

While he is not getting save chances in Philly yet, he remains an option should Craig Kimbrel struggle. Alvarado is a strong add in roto formats as he is providing great ratios and strikeouts and has a clear path toward save chances on a team that should win a lot of games. 

Ron Marinaccio has pitched to a 1.80 ERA and 1.15 xERA with a 0.60 WHIP and a 50 percent strikeout rate in five innings for the Yankees this season. Clay Holmes is the closer for New York but things are very thin behind him. If anything was to happen to him, Marinaccio would quickly enter the saves picture for the Yankees. The ratios and strikeouts put him on the roto radar. 

Ian Kennedy has pitched to a 3.86 ERA, 0.41 xERA, and 0.86 WHIP with a 44 percent strikeout rate in 2.1 innings for the Rangers. Kennedy brings a lot of closer experience and is the fallback option behind both Will Smith and Jose Leclerc. He is more of a save stash in 15-plus team roto leagues, but the ratios put him more on the radar. 

Bryan Abreu has struck out 46 percent of the batters he faced this season while pitching to a 1.59 ERA and 2.52 xERA with a 1.06 WHIP. He is not likely to see many save chances as he is behind Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero, and likely Hector Neric. The ratios and strikeouts can come in handy for those in need. 

All stats entering Tuesday, April 11. 

Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.

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