2023 Fantasy Baseball AL Tout Wars Draft Recap

Money Distribution

Overall, I spent $154 on hitting and $102 on pitching, leaving $4 on the table. This is not what I had in mind. I would have liked to have spent more on hitting, but I was gun-shy at the start of the auction because the top hitters were going for way above the values I had on my sheet and the prices that the top hitters went for in last year's AL Tout Wars. I expected it to correct and took too long to adjust when it didn't. As a result, I balked at going $4-6 over my values on some of the top hitters and wish that I had in hindsight since pitching came so cheap.

I also made a cardinal sin and left money on the table. While $4 isn't a big deal, in AL Tout you can get money added back to your FAAB allotment if you release an injured player. The money you get back is tied to his draft cost, so I put $6 on Michael King as my last pick when I should have put $10 on him. If he were to get hurt and I cut him, I would get more money back on my FAAB budget than I will now.

General Observations

The catcher buys caught me totally off guard. I knew coming into the draft that I didn't want to pay up for one of the top guys, but last year's AL Tout Wars had teams in the league average just $14 spent on their catcher duo, so I was convinced I'd be able to get at least one guy I liked for $8-10. Nope!

I'm also really glad I didn't wade heavily into the AL closer landscape here. There are a few guys who seem locked into jobs that I like, but having to deal with the Carlos Estevezs and $16 Pete Fairbanks makes me nervous. Although if I had known I'd have so much money left over that I had to pay $6 for Michael King, I would have absolutely just spent that $6 on Reynaldo Lopez.

My goal for the reserve draft was to cover 3B because of Donaldson and then look at some SP upside. I think DL Hall could pitch 110+ innings in the big leagues this year and be really good, and I'm also a big Maikel Garcia fan. I think he could be a swiss army knife utility for Kansas City with plus speed, so I was excited to get him in the reserves.

Where Did I Go Right?

Pitching

I executed my pitching strategy exactly as I wanted it to.

I had McClanahan as my top target because I figured Gerrit Cole would go for more than I was comfortable with, so I'm ecstatic to get McClanahan for $27 when Cole went for $35. I then had a collection of pitchers in the Lance Lynn, Logan Gilbert tier slotted for $16, which is what I wanted to pay for my second starter, but I was able to get Ray there instead, who I had marked down for $21.

I'm perhaps overly optimistic about Ray, which I never thought I would be, but he has looked phenomenal this spring while throwing 97 mph and adding in a splitter. Since he admitted that he was thrown off last year by the lockout and new team context, I'm buying a bounceback by not expecting his Cy Young season.

I then love the way I was able to round out my rotation with solid veterans like Jon Gray and Nathan Eovaldi and the upside of Hunter Brown. I was also thrilled to get Tyler Mahle, who I was loving as a bounce-back candidate until he showed diminished velocity in his last start and got hit around. I'm just hoping that's a one-start blip, but as a $6 buy, it was not a crazy cost.

I also came into the draft wanting one of the elite closers to be my "anchor" and then I trusted that I knew the reliever pool well enough to snag value late. Getting Clase, who may be the top reliever in baseball without Edwin Diaz, made me feel great, and then I really believe Will Smith will be in the mix for saves in Texas. Michael King was a preferred buy because he's an elite reliever even if he doesn't get saves, but I think he's the next guy up if Clay Holmes falters. If I can get 5-10 saves each from Smith and King to pair with Clase, then I will be in great shape.

Plus, I got Ben Joyce as my last reserve pick just for fun. Carlos Estevez has been struggling and Joyce just looks really good.

Hitters

I obviously had Kyle Tucker, Julio Rodriguez, and Mike Trout penciled in as the top buys at OF, but I was also comfortable with Cedric Mullins in that tier because I think the new rules make him a good bet for 30 steals. Since my goal steals total was 100, Mullins basically gets me a third of the way there with just one player. While he's not a major OBP threat, his .320 rate won't hurt me, and if he can spike anything close to the .360 he did in 2021 now that there's no shift, I'll be loving it.

I'm also a big Anthony Santander fan, but I was really happy to get Kyle Isbel to round out my outfield. With Drew Waters hurt, he is the starting CF in Kansas City and is just 26 years old with a solid minor-league track record. He has the speed to snatch 20-25 bases in a full-time role and he went to Driveline this offseason to fix his swing. He already had a solid HardHit% last year, but he's looked better this spring, hitting .433 with two stolen bases and six strikeouts to four walks. He and Mullins can maybe get me 60 steals alone.

I also think I got great injury value on my other outfielders, Michael Brantley and Leody Taveras. Brantley is an OBP stud in a great lineup and Taveras has tantalizing upside. I can put them both on my IL to start the season and feel like I'm in good shape if even one of them comes back.

Lastly, I'm super happy with getting Triston Casas, especially in this format. He has tremendous plate discipline and has been hitting in the middle of the lineup for a Red Sox offense that I think will be better than people give them credit for. It's become trendy to look down on Boston's offseason, but Masataka Yoshida looks great, Justin Turner is a tremendous fit at DH in that lineup, Rafael Devers is a certified stud, and Alex Verdugo is a solid hitter. Plus, Adam Duvall in Fenway could lead to 30+ home runs.

Where Did I Go Wrong?

I mean, I'm starting Josh Donaldson at 3B, so we can go right ahead and start there. As I mentioned above, I thought I could wait on 3B and snag some value at the position, so I didn't seriously jump into the bidding for Devers, Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, and Matt Chapman. I should have pulled the trigger on $17 for Justin Turner or $12 for Josh Jung, but I stuck the values on my sheet a bit too much.

I think Donaldson will at least begin the year as the Yankees' everyday 3B and has a solid track record of success in an OBP format, so maybe he just winds up being average. That would be nice considering I paid $1 more for him than others paid for Gio Urshela and Jace Peterson. Donaldson certainly has more upside.

If he flops, I did take Nick Maton in the reserves, and while that's not exciting, he's playing 3B seemingly every day for Detroit and hitting second, so there is value there in AL-Only leagues.

We covered the catching situation above. In hindsight, I wish I had gone to $14 on Danny Jansen or $11-12 on Shea Langeliers, or even $9-10 on Jonah Heim or Eric Haase, but at the time, those felt like overpays. Now that the draft is over, they look like good buys. Instead, I opted for Ryan Jeffers, who I think will at least split time in Minnesota, and then I took a shot on Bo Naylor. I'll take the zeroes in the catcher spot for the first month of the season (or stream somebody off the wire if somebody pops), but I think Naylor will be up in May and can be a solid catching option.