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Mark analyzes four NCAA Tournament busts - college basketball teams most likely to get eliminated and be upset. Read his 2023 March Madness predictions.
Now that Selection Sunday is behind us and the 2023 March Madness Brackets are out, one of the key things everyone wants to know is: who are the teams that are most likely to underperform and bust in this coming NCAA tournament?
Every year, there are always a few college basketball teams who don't live up to expectations and go home in the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Below are the four most likely teams to bust, and the reasons why.
After you're done here, be sure to check out the rest of our NCAA tournament columns and advice, including tournament winners/picks, sleepers, busts, and breakdowns of each region.
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4. Kansas Jayhawks
We are starting off with the Kansas Jayhawks here. The Jayhawks are the class of the Big 12 and one could argue the amount of Big 12 regular season titles they have won under Bill Self is more impressive than what anyone has done in the NCAA tournament in the modern era.
That said, everyone will remember the National Title from last year, see the No. 1 seed again this year, and proceed to put the Jayhawks in the Final Four. I believe on the Selection Sunday CBS show, every analyst had Kansas make the Final Four with at least two of them picking them to go to the title game.
In a vacuum, Kansas is very good. They are seventh in defensive efficiency, 29th in offensive efficiency, and they don't shoot the three well (just 158th) but they defend the three well (39th).
Here's the thing, though: first, the bracket they were placed in is very hard! UConn, UCLA, and Gonzaga are all tough. In fact, according to the Ken Pom ratings, UConn is the top No. 4 seed and rated better overall than Kansas.
When looking at a potential UConn - Kansas matchup, UConn isn't a big three-point shooting team either. But they are sixth offensively and 18th defensively. Kansas would be the only No. 1 seed to play a team arguably better than them in Round 2. Could they win? Absolutely, but then they would have to potentially deal with UCLA or Gonzaga, two more teams that rate just ahead of Kansas.
Even if UConn loses and the team Kansas would face in Round 2 is Saint Mary's, that's still a tough matchup for the second round! Saint Mary's is ninth in defensive efficiency and 40th in offensive efficiency!
Repeating is hard, and Kansas got put in the hardest region. I wouldn't be surprised if they are sent home before the Sweet 16.
3. Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee could be a bit sneaky here. If someone is knowledgeable enough to look at the KenPom ratings or other advanced metrics, Tennessee is a much better team than Louisiana on paper. But unless they are following college basketball closely, they may not realize that PG Zakai Zeigler is out with a torn ACL.
Even before the injury, Tennessee was not playing all that great as they have gone 5-7 in their last 12 games with losses to teams like Vanderbilt, Florida, and Missouri (twice).
Add in Rick Barnes not doing well in the NCAA tournament narrative, and I believe this is a top-four seed that could lose in the first round. Even if they do win that first game, I do not love them against either Duke or Oral Roberts.
Tennessee should be the better team but they are not consistent offensively, are playing without Zeigler, and just have not looked good for a while this season.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama is the No. 1 overall seed and a legit National Title contender. They are 19th in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency. Most champions are in the top 20 in both metrics, and only four teams including Alabama meet this criterion in the tournament.
Why the hate then? West Virginia is lurking.
At 19-14, most people filling out a bracket would scoff at the notion that West Virginia is a threat but they are.
West Virginia is 15th in offensive efficiency and 51st in opponent turnover percentage.
What is the one aspect of Alabama's game that is suspect? Turnover percentage. They turn the ball over 19% of the time, which is 241st in the country.
There is a scenario where Alabama walks into this game unprepared, looking past a 19-14 team and surprising most fans out of nowhere. That sometimes happens in the NCAA tournament. Bob Huggins has been around for a while and he can get a team ready to go.
If West Virginia loses in the first round, then everything above is taken back. I do not think Maryland is as big of a threat and I do not think Alabama is in much danger until they reach a Creighton or Arizona if they face Maryland in Round 2.
1. Virginia Cavaliers
In general, I am fading the ACC all over the place and it starts with Virginia. If you like how Virginia plays, then you are probably a Virginia fan or from a different time period. They play with the slowest pace in the nation, averaging just 61.6 possessions per game. They struggle to score as they are 74th in offensive efficiency.
The ACC was not very good this year, and if they were in a different conference, they are probably in the tournament as a 7-8-9-10 seed, something in that range instead of a four seed.
Furman does not play as slow as Virginia but they do play slower with a pace that is 124th in the country. With that pace, they are 33rd in offensive efficiency.
In addition, Furman has lost just three games since December 31 and is one of the hottest teams in the country.
Furman can get into a rock fight with Virginia and play more efficiently offensively than them. Is that guaranteed? No. But it's very possible with how Virginia is playing in addition to losing a key player to injury in Ben Vander Plas.
Even if Virginia survives Furman, they are looking at the winner of San Diego State and Charleston. San Diego State also plays at a very slow pace (252nd) and is 64th in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency -- better than Virginia on both accounts.
I will be shocked if Virginia makes it past the Round of 32.
Other Vulnerable Teams
Marquette - Probably should not be a No. 2 seed but they were placed in a bracket with other teams I find overrated like Kansas State and Kentucky. If they are a weak No. 2 seed but everyone else is weak.... hard to predict an upset.
Arizona - If Utah State beats Missouri, they are 13th in offensive efficiency. With Arizona being 41st in defensive efficiency, that's average at this stage of the season and they are vulnerable to having points put up against them.
Duke - The idea is that Duke has a nine-game winning streak and an ACC tournament victory. There's no way they could lose early and of course they will contend, right? I don't think so. Oral Roberts will pose a threat with a 17-game winning streak and the 23rd-best offensive efficiency in the game. If Duke wins that game, though, they could go on a run.
Duke does potentially face Tennessee or Louisiana in Round 2, which is a good matchup for them. Purdue is everyone's favorite No. 1 seed predicted to go down first. Marquette is a weak No. 2 seed as mentioned above. All of a sudden, I am saying Duke is vulnerable but could go to a Final Four. Logical? No. But this is what the tournament is: either you lose in Round 1 or you can start to make an argument for a Final Four run. Neither will surprise me with them this year.
Final Thoughts
The NCAA tournament has so many games that are coin flips and often we are just surprised by what happens. We think we are so confident in who will win and who is likely to get upset, but we don't *really* know, which is what makes this fun!
We could easily look back at this article in a week and see that none of the above teams were eliminated early and instead there were some other crazy upsets nobody saw coming.
At the end of the day, the uncertainty is what makes the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament so entertaining. Best of luck filling out brackets and doing whatever competitions you do at this time of year!
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