3 NBA Contenders Who Could Bust In The Playoffs

March 8, 2023

Aidin Ebrahim lays out the reasons why these three powerhouse teams could stumble in the NBA playoffs despite the perception they should title contenders.

At the start of every NBA season, most teams (with the exception of tanking teams), have the same dream; lifting the Larry O'Brien trophy by the end of the season. Of course, winning an NBA championship depends on many factors, most of which are outside the players, coaches, and owner's control.

Assembling the most talented and star-studded teams does not always equate to winning the championship in June, as many franchises, like the Brooklyn Nets, have found that out the hard way.

With that in mind, this article will focus on three top-heavy teams who, despite all their talent, might struggle come playoff time and ultimately fall short in their quest for an NBA championship.

1. The Philadelphia 76ers (43-22): 3rd in East

Last season, Philadelphia's solid defense struggled due to the absence and eventual departure of their former number-one overall pick, Ben Simmons. In Simmons' final two seasons with Philadelphia, he paired up with Matisse Thybulle to create a fearsome defensive duo. Simmons and Thybulle combined for a defensive box plus/minus of 5.4 in 2019-20, and 6.7 in 2020-21.

This season, the Sixers added De'Anthony Melton to their side, and Melton and Thybulle combined for a DBPM of 5.1 before the trade deadline. That number could have been even higher had Doc Rivers not limited Thybulle's playing time. Philadelphia eventually traded the former Washington Husky to the Trail Blazers, in a move where Philly received Jalen McDaniels.

The move has proved to be a flop so far, as Thybulle is flourishing in Portland, while McDaniels has been solid, but unspectacular in his new team. McDaniels has been struggling on the defensive end ever since moving to "The City of Brotherly Love", as he's currently averaging a putrid -0.9 DBPM.  This means that the team now has to rely on Melton and an almost 38-year-old P.J. Tucker to be their main perimeter defenders. Tucker still occasionally produces moments of defensive brilliance, but those moments are becoming fewer and fewer.

Essentially, this is still last season's Sixers team with Joel Embiid, James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, and Tobias Harris, without their best defender. And they're coached by Doc Rivers, a man who has been cursed ever since leading the 2008 Celtics to an NBA championship. Even if they stay completely healthy (which is a big "if", due to the injury history of players like Embiid), winning the championship, or even making it to the NBA Finals, looks unlikely.

2. The Sacramento Kings (38-26): 2nd in West

We all know that the Kings have not made the Playoffs since 2006, and barring any significant injuries, they'll almost certainly make the Playoffs this season. The Kings are now just two wins away from getting their first 40-win season since 2005-2006. Between the 2006-07 and 2021-22 seasons, The Sacramento Kings have had a record of 467-809, an average of 30 wins in an 82-game season. While there are still many doubts about this team, optimism is at an all-time high in Sacramento. The biggest doubt with this team is their overall lack of experience in the postseason. Of the 10 Kings players currently averaging more than 10 minutes per game, only five have ever appeared in the Playoffs.

Among these players, Trey Lyles only played in five games, Terence Davis only played in six, and Domantas Sabonis had played in nine Playoff games before 2019. His first real test came against Boston in the 2019 Playoffs, as he was tasked with leading his team without Victor Oladipo. Sabonis shrunk under the bright lights of the postseason, only averaging 8.5 points per game in that series, with his Field Goal% going down by 17.6% from the regular season. Kevin Huerter has played in 23 Playoff games and contributed to his team's success in the 2021 Playoffs. Still, that run is mainly remembered due to Trae Young, and Huerter only ranked 7th in his squad in Playoff PER and Playoff Win Shares per 48 among the Hawks' main Playoff contributors in 2021.

That leaves Harrison Barnes as Sacramento's player with the most Playoff experience, with 64 Playoff games played. Barnes does have an NBA championship on his resume, however, he hasn't played a Playoff game since game seven of the 2016 NBA Finals, where he averaged 5 points on 5-32 shooting in games 5 through 7, allowing the Cavaliers to complete their historic comeback. I could see De'Aaron Fox having a great Playoff debut, While Sabonis and Barnes certainly have the talent to redeem themselves in the postseason. They could even win a series or two. But their overall lack of experience is concerning, and it can stop them from making it out of the West.

3. The Phoenix Suns (36-29): 4th in West

As of the time of writing, according to Betway's betting odds, the Suns have the 2nd best odds of winning the NBA championship, with odds of +400. And it's not hard to see why. Their "Big Four" is among the best and most talented "Big Fours" in NBA history. If luck is by their side, they have the best chance to make it out of the West, due to their sheer amount of talent. But recently, we've learned that so-called "Superteams" like this, usually don't end up so well. Just look at what happened to all the 'Superteams" after Durant left Golden State. Durant's Nets had arguably even more talent than the Suns, but crashed and burned due to an unprecedented stroke of bad luck, while the Lakers with LeBron, AD, and Russell Westbrook had a record of 58-80.

With their acquisition of Durant, the Suns also lost a part of their identity; their solid bench unit. Since the beginning of the Chris Paul era in Arizona, the Suns have ranked around the middle of the league in points per game off the bench. They ranked 14th in 2020-21 with 37 points per game off the bench, 18th with 35.4 points per game off the bench in 2021-22, and they were making a big improvement this year, ranking 11th with 35.6 points per game off the bench. Since Durant's debut, that number has dropped to a putrid 26 points per game off the bench, which would rank them 29th in the entire league.

Obviously, star players play more in the Playoffs, so when your starters are so talented, the bench shouldn't be much of a concern, just ask the Durant-era Warriors. However, this team has one major difference from those Warriors teams, and that's age. When the Warriors added Durant in the 2016 offseason, all four of the Warriors stars were 28 or younger, while Phoenix has two players who are 34 or older. And the moment that the Warriors experienced injuries in the postseason (namely the 2019 NBA Finals), they crumbled.  In the past three seasons, KD has missed 87 games, while Devin Booker has missed 46 games, Chris Paul has missed 40, and Deandre Ayton has missed 36. This team, while supremely talented, is injury prone, and with no reliable bench unit to fill the gaps, an injury to one of their stars can potentially shatter their NBA championship hopes.

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