Points Leagues: Outfielders to Underperform Fantasy Baseball ADP in 2023

As Spring training begins to pick up steam, it’s also an impending sign of fantasy baseball draft season. And what spot is more important in fantasy baseball than the outfield? Some of the game's best offensive talents man one of the outfield spots. True fantasy baseball difference-makers like Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, Julio Rodriguez, Michael Harris II, and Kyle Tucker all call the outfield their home.

Outfield is a spot that is fairly deep, but that is no reason to overlook it during draft preparation. Some may think that with such a deep field of talent, they can afford to just take the easy route and pick the OF with the highest ADP. But time and time again, this flawed thinking proves to doom fantasy baseball seasons as what should be the strength of your roster turns into its Achilles heel.

A misstep in your outfield draft strategy can put you several strides behind your league mates. Don’t make the mistake of choosing these guys to fill out your outfield spots in points leagues.

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Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates

ADP: 74.7 - OVR Rk: 81 - POS Rk: 20

Bryan Reynolds’ ADP of 74 proves that we’re all still suffering a residual high from his 2021 season, but it’s about time we all sober up.

Reynolds was great in 2021 with an OPS+ of 145, a wOBA of .385, and 24 HRs to boot. But he took a step back in 2022, with an OPS+ of 126 and a wOBA of .349. With his clearly unsustainable .345 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in 2021, it’s more than likely that what we saw in 2022 is a regression to the mean.

Throughout the rest of his career, we’ll likely see Reynolds being nothing more than an above-league-average hitter with around 25 HR a season.

His 2023 projections are in line with that as ATC projects 24 HR and a wOBA of .349. That’s the stat line of a productive fantasy player, but not one at an ADP of 74.

Also worth keeping an eye on is Reynolds’ defense. In 2022, Reynolds was one of the league’s worst outfield defenders with an OAA of -7. While Reynolds’ poor defense in 2022 may have been an anomaly considering he held some of the league’s best defensive numbers in 2021 (11 OAA), a defensive repeat of his 2023 season will have ripple effects.

We’ve seen situations where hitters simply get thrown off mentally by their poor defense and their offense dips as a result. If anyone remembers, Xander Bogaerts put in his worst offensive season in 2014 (84 OPS+) after being pushed from SS to 3B. Reynolds can and should clean his defense up, but if he doesn’t, expect offensive regression.

At 74, you can get more exciting options like Adolis Garcia (91.7 ADP) or Teoscar Hernandez (85.3 ADP). Garcia and Hernandez should outpace Reynolds in most counting stats and should be your preferred outfield options in the 70s and 80s.

Kris Bryant, Colorado Rockies

ADP: 113 - OVR Rk: 129 - POS Rk: 31

Kris Bryant started his first season with the Rockies after a massive seven-year, $182 million contract brought him to Colorado. Kris Bryant was only able to make 42 appearances as he was hampered by a lingering foot issue.

In the games he played in 2022, Bryant’s stats look decent as he slashed .306/.376/.475 with a 127 OPS+. A clear steal at an ADP of 113, right?

Not quite. The oft-injured Bryant is showing signs of athletic decay at the age of 32. His 2022 season saw a decrease in hard-hit rate from 40% to 29.6% and a loss of three MPH on his average exit velocity. Bryant’s Barrel rate also dipped from 10.3% to 6.7%.

ATC projects a 2.0 WAR season for Bryant in 2023 with 20 HR in 2023. Clearly, Bryant is no longer the 40+ HR superstar he once was.

Bryant is a more mature hitter now, but a loss of athleticism makes those improvements moot. A loss of eligibility at 3B drags down Bryant’s fantasy profile further and should make him a less appealing option in the 110s. Maybe you think Bryant is worth a gamble, but make that gamble happen 10 picks later.

Tyler O'Neill, St. Louis Cardinals

ADP: 130.7 - OVR Rk: 126 - POS Rk: 30

Tyler O’Neill seems like an enticing option at a later ADP of 130 simply out of sheer muscular beauty.

Tyler O’Neill another shot of his muscles. pic.twitter.com/ze6s3SLUXx

— Blues Bro Rob F. (@BluesBroRob9190) February 19, 2023

O’Neill is a physical specimen, benching 435 pounds while hitting a sprint speed of 30 feet/second. However, sometimes those physical traits don’t translate day in and day out on a baseball field.

O’Neill’s 2022 season was mediocre at best. In 96 games, O’Neill slashed .228/.308/.392 with 14 HR, 58 RBIs, 14 SBs, and a wOBA of .307. Now, to be fair, O’Neill’s production was hampered by repeated visits to the injured list for issues with his shoulders, hamstrings, and legs.

O’Neill will play better in 2023; maybe not to the level of his 2021 season, but not as bad as his 2022 season. The bigger bases will cause an emboldening across the league where teams will tell their speedsters to steal more. O’Neill’s exit velocity decrease in 2022 was likely caused by injury, and he’ll likely get close to the 26 HR mark that ATC projects for him.

But O’Neill still has his flaws.

He has always had problems with plate discipline, even in his stellar 2021 season. In an injury-shortened season, O’Neill still struck out over 100 times and was on pace for around 174 strikeouts over a 162-game span.

Drafting O’Neill could very well end up panning out in roto leagues, but his plate discipline and injury history make him not worth the risk in points leagues.

George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 63 - OVR Rk: 64 - POS Rk: 15

As the former leadoff man for the legendary late-2010 Houston Astros offense and now the leadoff man for the high-octane Toronto Blue Jays, George Springer has always been a fantasy favorite. But at the age of 33, George Springer's value has become a bit too inflated with an ADP of 63.

The aggrandizement of George Springer is actually somewhat understandable considering his 2022 season. He was finally able to put together a season with more than 80 games played. Springer hit 25 HR and slashed .267/.342/.472 in 133 games in 2022. Those numbers don’t look terrible, but it’s a notably less efficient output than past seasons.

Springer’s advanced statistics show that there was a regression from 2021 to 2022, which may be a sign that his time in the sun is waning. Springer’s Barrel percentage dipped to 8.4% from a 15.4% rate in 2021. His wOBA also dipped to around .350 after staying near the .380-.400 range for the past few seasons.

Springer is still somewhat brittle – dealing with a bone spur in his right elbow and a concussion in the 2022 season. The veteran's injury history has kept him from playing as he appeared in only 78 games in 2021. Inconsistent playing time makes Springer a big risk at such an early draft spot.

There’s no problem with risky picks, but at pick 63, there are guys with far better risk-to-reward ratios. If you want to take a gamble on an injury-prone outfielder, try scooping up someone with an MVP-type ceiling like Luis Robert (52.3) or Byron Buxton (109.3 ADP).

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