January 25, 2023

Right-hander Tony Gonsolin had a breakout season for the Los Angeles Dodgers during his first full season in the majors. He won 16 games while posting a 2.14 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 23.9% strikeout rate across 24 starts and 130.1 innings. Gonsolin has a solid pitch mix; four-seamer (39.1%), splitter (27.5%), slider (21.5%), and curveball (11.9%). His fastball was his worst pitch by run value, but he's declined its usage every season, and his other offerings combined for a 33.3% whiff rate. Gonsolin's plate discipline numbers have been solid through his first four campaigns, including a 61st-percentile whiff rate and 55th-percentile chase rate in 2022. Fantasy managers should expect punchout numbers closer to his 24.8% career rate. However, regression is coming in 2023. Gonsolin's .207 BABIP was the lowest of any pitcher with at least 70 innings, and he allowed just 0.76 HR/9 despite an inflated fly ball rate (26.5%) and a home park that's third in home run factor over the past three seasons. Further, the 28-year-old is set to begin the season on the injured list after suffering an ankle injury this spring. The Dodgers don't expect Gonsolin to miss too much time, but this just adds to the uncertainty about his volume, as he's never thrown more than the 132.2 innings he pitched last year as a professional. With a 183 ADP, fantasy managers would be wise to pass on a pitcher who's projected to provide an ERA of around 4.00 in limited starts.--Spencer Seguin