January 14, 2023

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober had a surprising performance in 2022, a season after posting a 4.19 ERA across 92.1 innings. Over 56 IP, he pitched to a 3.21 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, and 22.5% strikeout rate with a pair of victories across 11 starts. Ober throws four pitches; a four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball. Batters crushed the 27-year-old's fastball and changeup this year, compiling a .539 and .547 xSLG, respectively. Ober's slider is an excellent pitch, though, as batters put up just a .283 xwOBA and 37% whiff rate of it this season. He has good swing-and-miss stuff overall (66th-percentile whiff rate in 2022) and owns a career 32.7% chase rate. His 31.8% strikeout percentage throughout Ober's minor league career is impressive, and there's no reason he can't manage a strikeout rate north of 25% next season. He also has outstanding command, as he owns a 5% walk rate over his two seasons in the bigs and a 3.5% mark in the minors. Ober's given up lots of hard contact during his career with a .255 xBA and .462 xSLG and isn't a ground ball pitcher by any means (32.4% career ground ball rate). However, an 11.7% barrel rate is hard to duplicate, and the former 12th-rounder still plays in an offenseless division where fly balls go to die. Further, a solid K-BB% in 2023 will help Ober produce decent ratios next year and offset the hard contact. Fantasy managers might question his volume in 2023, but he's the Twins projected fifth starter and the depth chart gets questionable behind him, so the spot should be his to lose. The upside is worth Ober's ADP of 269.--Spencer Seguin