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Cody Bellinger 2023 Outlook: Change of Scenery Offers Upside
2 years agoCody Bellinger slashed just .210/.265/.389 with 19 HR and 14 SB over 550 PAs last year. His .255 BABIP seems extremely low at first glance, but the combination of very high FB% (47.2 last season) and IFFB% (14.1) numbers makes it difficult to expect much more. Still, Bellinger was shifted in all but 10 opportunities last season and managed a 6.3 Oppo% on grounders, so the reduction in overshifts might add a few points to his average. Similarly, Bellinger shaved more than two ticks from his SwStr% last year (14.2% to 12%) but didn't see any corresponding decrease in strikeouts (26.9% to 27.3%), providing more BA upside. Favorable LD% regression (17.2% vs. 20.8% career) could also help. Bellinger's power wasn't great either with a 92.3 mph average airborne exit velocity and 8.3% rate of Brls/BBE, but the sheer number of flies he hits should keep his HR totals respectable. Throw in about 15 steals and a better spot in the Cubs lineup than he had with the Dodgers, and you're looking at a nice upside play at his current ADP of 187.64.
