December 14, 2022

At 26 years old, Atlanta Braves right-hander Kyle Wright had his breakout season, posting a 3.19 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and 174 strikeouts over 180.1 innings while winning a Major League-high 21 contests. He finally found his command, walking batters at a 7.2% rate after a 14.8% clip through his first four seasons, and his 23.6% strikeout rate was his best mark by 4.2%. Wright changed his approach, turning to his curveball more often (34.1%) than any other pitcher after using it just 14.3% in 2021. It placed in the 82nd percentile in terms of spin rate, got batters to whiff 33.5% of the time, and managed a .220 xBA. He also used a sinker (23.9%), a four-seamer (19.4%), a changeup (15.5%), and a slider (7.2%). However, these combined for a .259 xBA and .420 xSLG, so if Wright's curve falters and batters adapt to the pitch, he doesn't have much in terms of a backup plan. Even with the righty's breaking ball working, he was giving up hard contact. Wright gave up gave 35th percentile 89.0 MPH average exit velocity and 23rd percentile 41.1% hard-hit rate, and his .244 xBA and 3.89 xERA reflect that. He'll be able to keep the ball on the ground with his sinker and curve usage, and he posted an excellent 55.5% ground ball rate this year. But don't count on as many strikeouts. After posting a 37.0% strikeout rate in the first month of '22, Wright managed just a 21.7% mark the rest of the way. Fantasy managers should never count on 21 wins; without the victories, his value is minimal. There's a good chance Wright doesn't help too much in ratios and punchouts. A lot has to go right for the former first-rounder to finish as the 44th (115 ADP) best pitcher in 2023.--Spencer Seguin