December 12, 2022

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez had a fantastic 2021 season in Miami, pitching to a 3.07 ERA and a 27.5% strikeout rate. But he hit the injured list on July 17 with a rotator cuff strain that virtually ended his season, besides a brief appearance in the final game of the year. Fantasy managers were hoping Lopez would head into 2022 with the same dominance, but that wasn't the case. His ERA rose to 3.75, and his strikeout rate fell to 23.6% while posting 10 wins with a 1.17 WHIP. Although, there are positive signs. Lopez started 32 games for the Marlins, the first time he's eclipsed the 21-game mark over five seasons in the majors. He increased his whiff rate from 25.7% in 2021 to a career-best 28.1% this year and generated a 70th-percentile chase rate. The 26-year-old did it with virtually a two-pitch mix; his fastball that he threw 39% of the time and had the most spin of his career, and a changeup that he threw 35.3% of the time and had 2.8 and 1.8 inches above average horizontal and vertical break, respectively. The only real blemish was Lopez's barrel rate which reached 9.0%, the highest of his career. But his .378 xSLG is similar to the .373 xSLG from 2021, and he owned above-average exit velocity for the fifth consecutive season. A likely drop in barrels and an increase in strikeouts means a better season is on the way. Further, Lopez is moving to a club expected to be a part of the playoff hunt in a weak AL Central, so he should produce double-digit victories. There's a good chance he outplays what his 166 ADP suggests.--Spencer Seguin