December 12, 2022

San Diego Padres left-hander Josh Hader had a rollercoaster year in 2022. He converted 36 saves but posted career-highs with a 5.22 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Most of the damage happened after the deadline deal, struggling to a 7.31 ERA on the West Coast and temporarily losing the closer role. Hader's 3.45 FIP sticks out, though, as he struck out 37.0% of batters faced while walking just 9.6%. It wasn't his best season in terms of punchouts, but he posted a 41.6% strikeout rate in the first half and was back up to 55.6% in the postseason. Hader's three-pitch mix of sinker, slider, and changeup had similar break and movement from past years, while his sinker and slider reached a career-high 97.4 MPH and 84.0 MPH, respectively. The 28-year-old struggled with keeping the ball in the park, but his high barrel rate of 11.5% was only the fourth-highest of his career, and his 1.44 HR/9 wasn't even his worst mark as a big leaguer. Batters hit .225 and slugged .403 off of Hader this season, but his Statcast numbers faired much better (.196 xBA, .359 xSLG). Additionally, playing his home games at Petco Park (95 home run factor) will only improve his numbers after spending five and a half years at American Family Field (114 home run factor). The four-time All-Star has been up and down before. Although there was more down than up in 2022, Hader settled in as a Padre and ended his exile from closer duties, saving six games in September and four in the playoffs. Fantasy managers should expect another Hader-like year in 2023 while compiling north of 30 saves on a top team in the National League. He's the fourth reliever off the board (36 ADP) and is arguably better value than the preceding arm of Emmanuel Clase (26 ADP).--Spencer Seguin