Should I Start Kenyan Drake or Justice Hill in Week 7? Is Gus Edwards Playing Today?

The Baltimore Ravens rushing attack is dominating defenses. They've got two running backs and a quarterback all averaging over 5.9 yards per carry. Even the Buffalo Bills couldn't stop them from churning for 162 rushing yards.

The Cleveland Browns run defense can't stop anybody. They gave up 10.0 yards per carry to Austin Ekeler two weeks ago. Ekeler is good, but he's averaging 4.7 yards a carry on the season.

Now, the Ravens welcome the Browns to Baltimore for Week 7. I think "welcome" is the right term, because Ravens fans are going to be ecstatic to go up against a team against whom the Ravens can play to their strength, and maybe fantasy managers in need of a running back should be excited too.

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What Is The Ravens' Running Back Situation?

The Ravens rank No. 4 this season in rushing yards gained per game, and they are No. 1 in the past three weeks. Last week against the Giants, Kenyan Drake ran for 119 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries.

J.K. Dobbins' carries were limited because of a knee injury, and after the game, Dobbins was placed on the IR. Dobbins was leading the team in rushing attempts.

But Drake is not to have the backfield to himself. As one Ravens RB leaves, two rejoin the team. Justice Hill, who missed Weeks 5 and 6 with a hamstring injury, is cleared to play, and Gus Edwards, who tore his ACL last season, was taken off the PUP list.

You might assume the Ravens pound the ball again and again to rack up rushing yards, but you'd be wrong. The Ravens only rank slightly above average, with 26.2 rushing plays per game (and that includes QB runs).

They do excel at rushing efficiency. They are by far the No. 1 team in rushing yards per attempt, both in the whole season and in the past three games. They are No. 1 by a hair (nearly tied with the Browns) in EPA per rushing play.

From a fantasy points perspective, it wouldn't matter if the RB you start gains 80 yards on eight carries or on 20 carries. If the Ravens are gaining yards, you can gain points. It wouldn't be a problem if Kenyan Drake and Justice Hill perfectly met their averages. Nine carries times six yards a carry is 54 yards. Add in a couple of catches or a touchdown, and you have a flex.

The problem is, if Kenyan Drake and Justice Hill each have only half a dozen carries, each carry is more impactful. They have a greater chance of having an outlier game, which could be good, or it could be bad. Players with high efficiency and low volume are riskier plays on a game-by-game basis than players with lower efficiency and higher volume.

How Is Kenyan Drake Doing This Season?

Kenyan Drake has gained 184 yards on 31 carries. That’s good for an average of 5.9 yards a carry. But those numbers are heavily influenced by his 119-yard game last week. In Weeks 1, 2, and 5, he had 65 yards on 21 carries and was held under 3.0 yards per carry in his first two games.

His current yards per carry figure is higher than its been any season in his seven-year career. This is his first year in Baltimore, which has a better offensive line and a better system than the Dolphins and Raiders teams he played for the past two years. But Drake could be vulnerable to regressing towards his career average or his season average.

Drake has not been used much in the passing game, either. He has only been targeted four times and caught three for 24 yards.

How Is Justice Hill Doing This Season?

Justice Hill has run for 125 yards on 19 carries. He has a similarly low involvement in the passing game: four catches on four targets for 19 yards.

Hill is younger than Drake and has averaged more yards per carry than Drake has over the past three years—albeit with only 89 career carries, all while playing in the Ravens system. Jeff Zrebiec, the Ravens reporter for The Athletic, describes Hill as “the team’s most explosive back early in the season.”

Who Should I Start for Fantasy Football?

In Weeks 1 and 2, the only two weeks both of them were active, Drake had 17 carries, and Hill had five carries, though Hill had more snaps in Week 2. There is the additional wild card of Gus Edwards. He may be transitioned slowly back into the rotation, given the severity of his injury and his time missed. But he tends to get carries in goal-line situations, so his presence could deprive Drake or Hill of a touchdown.

Despite the Ravens' high team rushing totals, few of their RBs have done much for fantasy teams. In fact, Drake’s RB7 (PPR) finish last week and Dobbins’ RB10 finish in Week 4 were the only two times the Ravens have produced an RB1. Hill did turn in top-50 finishes twice, which could be good enough for flex.

But given how Lamar Jackson accounts for so many carries and the Ravens even use WRs like Devin Duvernay in the run game, it would be hard for them to produce multiple fantasy-productive RBs. It would hardly be surprising if either Drake or Hill has an RB1 game. It would be somewhat surprising if both of them do. It is also possible to see them both having RB3-4 games.

Drake and Hill are both low-floor, high-ceiling flex or RB2 options. Gus Edwards shouldn't factor into lineups this week, since we don't know what to expect of him in his first game back, but he could be a stash.

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