Five Fantasy Basketball Bounce-Back Players For 2022-23

October 13, 2022

Justin Carter looks at five NBA players with bounce-back potential heading into the 2022-23 season. These are players who can help you win in fantasy basketball.

Progression isn't always linear. While we like to think that athletes get better until a certain age and then get worse after that age, it doesn't always work that way. Sometimes, a player has a good year, then regresses a little the next year, and then bounces back after that.

When it comes to fantasy basketball, identifying these bounce-back candidates can be really useful because you can usually get them at a depressed value because of the way re-draft drafters value what happened last year over what happened the year before. And hey—usually, that's a good way to look at things! But it's not always the correct way.

Below are five players who should bounce back after disappointing seasons last year.

Kyrie Irving - G - Brooklyn Nets

It's hard to avoid getting a little political when it comes to why Kyrie Irving is a bounce-back candidate because the reason Irving played just 29 games last year wasn't due to injury. Irving was limited because of rules in New York City that wouldn't allow a non-vaccinated player to play for much of the year. There was definitely a double standard since away players could play without being vaxxed, but there was also an easy fix for Irving that would have gotten him back on the floor much faster: getting the COVID vaccine. So, there's that little rant. Now, on to the basketball.

When Irving was on the floor last year, he was really good. He tied his career high in scoring with 27.4 points per game and also added 4.4 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.4 steals per contest.

He did this despite shooting 46.9% from the floor, which was his worst mark since the 2015-16 campaign when he was with the Cavaliers. Sitting out a large chunk of the season likely contributed pretty heavily to that issue, as he shot 45.2% in his 14 games before the All-Star break, then 48.4% in 15 games after the break.

Irving should be back to a full workload this season, making him a great pick at the end of the first round.

Davis Bertans - F - Dallas Mavericks

Since joining the NBA, Bertans has been a pretty elite shooter from deep. Here are his percentages from three over the course of his career: 39.9%, 37.3%, 42.9%. 42.4%, 39.5%, 33.5%. Uhh...what happened with that last one?

Bertans' first 34 games with Washington last year were a disaster. He shot 31.9% from behind the arc during that stretch, and a big issue overall for him was that he shot 31.7% on catch-and-shoot threes before the All-Star break. The Wizards' offense just wasn't generating the looks that Bertans needed. Just 20% of his shots before the ASB were "wide open," and he shot a predictably good 40.5% from three on those looks. Post-break, he shot 36.8% on catch-and-shoot threes and his number of wide-open looks jumped to 32.6%, though he actually struggled on those, shooting 24.1%. He made up for that by shooting 56.7% when "open," which NBA.com counts as shots with the closest defender between four and six feet from the shooter.

The point of all these numbers: Bertans got better looks when he moved to the Mavericks, largely because the team surrounding him was better. When you're playing with Luka Doncic, you get more opportunities to shoot without defenders in your face.

If Bertans just makes his wide-open looks at a rate more in line with his usual numbers and not the 20-game sample at the end of the season, then he should be an elite shooter again this season.

Julius Randle - F - New York Knicks

Randle had a breakout campaign in 2020-21, averaging 24.1 points per game on 45.6% shooting and a 41.1% mark from three. He also added 10.2 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game.

Last season, Randle's numbers...well, I don't want to say "tanked" since they were still good, but his efficiency definitely dropped off big time, which also led to a decline in his counting stats. Randle went from 45.6% from the floor and 41.1% from three to 41.1% from the floor and 30.8% from three.

Here's the thing with Randle: he shot his lowest mark from the field since his rookie season, largely because his three-point shooting took a dive. Randle wasn't a volume shooter from deep over his first four seasons, so it's hard to judge those years when thinking about him as a shooter. When he joined the Pelicans, he started taking more threes, and in the four years since, here are his averages: 34.4%, 27.7%, 41.1%, and 30.8%.

I don't know if Randle is a good three-point shooter based on his numbers, but I think it's tough to shoot 41.1% from behind the arc on 5.5 attempts per game and to have that be a fluke. I think he can get that three-point percentage back up to 35 or 36% this season, which would cover up some of the efficiency concerns that dr0pped his numbers last season.

Jalen Suggs - G - Orlando Magic

I definitely don't feel as confident in Suggs as I feel in the rest of the names in this article, but I'm still a strong believer in what he did at Gonzaga and I think that should translate better into the NBA this season now that the Magic have a little more talent around him. As a rookie, Suggs played 48 games, averaging 11.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.2 steals per contest on a 36.1/21.4/77.3 shooting split,

Those numbers—especially the first two—are not good. But Suggs shot 50.3% from the floor and 33.7% from three in his lone season in Spokane. And last year in Orlando, he shot an unfathomably bad (for a starting guard) 20.8% on corner threes, which are theoretically the easiest kind of three. If Suggs is as talented as everyone thought he was when he entered the NBA, that efficiency should increase greatly this season.

The worry, though, is that in the preseason, Suggs hasn't done much. He's averaging half as many minutes as Cole Anthony, and he's scoring 3.3 points per game. He's shot well on his limited looks, going 40% from the floor and 40% from three, but the lack of involvement is definitely a worry. Maybe it's just about the team trying to figure some things out? Anthony is really struggling with his shot this preseason, so Suggs could still emerge as the starting point guard, even if it takes him a little bit to get past Anthony.

Duncan Robinson - G/F - Miami Heat

Like Bertans, Duncan Robinson's placement here comes down to shooting.

The numbers aren't as drastic as they are with Bertans, but after shooting 44.6% from three in 2019-20 and then 40.8% in 2020-21, Robinson dropped to 37.2% last year, and his overall field goal percentage fell from 43.9% to 39.9%. He also saw a dip in his minutes.

I would expect we see Robinson in a slightly different role this season, which is as a microwave scorer off the bench. I think that's a role that will really suit him well. He can play the two, three, and four when needed, so even if he comes off the bench, there will be plenty of chances for Robinson to light the scoreboard up and a lot less pressure on him.

In fact, Robinson shot 36.7% from three as a starter last year. In his 11 games off the bench, he shot 40.5% from deep, and he only played about five fewer minutes per game when he was a reserve.

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