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Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor where the standings are concerned.
The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.
Here are some undervalued candidates to pursue in trades and some overvalued ones who you should consider dealing for if they presently occupy a spot on your roster.
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Undervalued Players To Trade For
Teoscar Hernandez, Toronto Blue Jays
One of fantasy baseball’s premier power threats over the last few seasons, Hernandez mashed 32 home runs in 595 plate appearances in 2021 after connecting on 16 in 207 plate appearances during the 2020 campaign.
His power numbers, at least on the surface, aren’t up to the same standard. The 29-year-old has just three home runs in 155 plate appearances so far during the 2022 campaign. His ISO is also down considerably as a result.
Teoscar Hernandez ISO By Season:
- 2018: .229
- 2019: .242
- 2020: .289
- 2021: .227
- 2022: .140
There’s also a career-worst 51.9% ground ball rate (Hernandez previously finished with a ground ball rate between 38% and 40% in each of the last four seasons) which is no doubt impacting his power production, especially when he’s still making some of the same quality contact that made him such an excellent power threat in years past. The outfielder's hard-hit rate (47.6%) and barrel rate (11.5%) are right in line with his hard-hit rate (49%) and barrel rate (13.9%) from last season. That those numbers haven’t been impacted too much by the new baseball is encouraging, and also a reason why now is the ideal time to make a trade for the slugger now because the window for making a deal might be closing.
In addition to a bevy of promising expected metrics, Hernandez is batting .364 with a .407 on-base percentage, a home run, and a stolen base in 59 plate appearances since May 31. Over that span, he’s logged eight barrels, a 52.4% hard-hit rate, and (perhaps most crucially) a 38.1% ground-ball rate. If you have the pitching depth, trading someone like Charlie Morton for Hernandez in a one-for-one deal makes plenty of sense. I’d also try packaging a useful, but not crucial, rotation option with a bench outfielder for Hernandez.
Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers
Marcus Semien’s slow start might be fading into the background. The infielder, who is batting .226 with a .288 on-base percentage, six home runs, and 11 stolen bases in 264 plate appearances this season, is on a tear as of late. Since June 4, the veteran is batting .405 with a .468 on-base percentage, four home runs, and four stolen bases in just 47 plate appearances. His hard-hit rate during that span (36.1%) and overall hard-hit rate (29.9%) still aren’t ideal, but he’s making plenty of contact this season, which partly helps make up for it. Semien’s strikeout rate is currently 16.4%. If the season ended today, that would be the second-lowest strikeout rate of his career.
Still, the recent power surge is extremely promising, especially considering Semien – who hit 45 home runs in 2021 – had just two homers through his first 221 plate appearances. Even if the former Blue Jay doesn’t repeat with another gaudy home run total, his power and speed ability make him one of fantasy baseball’s best middle infielders, especially considering he’s actually running more than he did last year.
Entering the 2022 season, Semien had reached double digits in stolen bases in each of the last six full seasons. However, his career-best is just 15 steals, which happened during the 2021 campaign. That he already has 11 so far in his first year in Texas is incredibly promising. Pair that with the home run power coming back and Semien might be the most intriguing trade target in fantasy baseball at the moment. I’d look to package a reasonably productive middle infielder like Jorge Polanco, Gleyber Torres, or Kyle Farmer with a quality rotation option in a trade for Semien.
Cedric Mullins, Baltimore Orioles
Mullins’ power numbers are down slightly, but that’s hardly a new development for players across the league. The league average for ISO is down from .167 in 2021 to .150 this season. Still, the Orioles outfielder is hitting for enough power. With his ability to steal bases, he can be an impact fantasy baseball player.
Through 62 games and 275 plate appearances, Mullins is batting .244 with a .304 on-base percentage, six home runs, and 12 stolen bases. That’s obviously not as productive as his breakout 2021 campaign when he hit .291 with a .360 on-base percentage, 30 home runs, and 30 stolen bases in 675 plate appearances, but some key underlying stats show that the outfielder is doing much of what made him successful in 2021, but just isn't seeing the results.
- Cedric Mullins in 2021: 8.1% barrel rate, 39.4% hard-hit rate, 18.5 K%, 82.8% zone contact %, 20.4% whiff rate
- Cedric Mullins in 2022: 6.9% barrel rate, 37.6% hard-hit rate, 18.2 K%, 82.8% zone contact %, 20.6% whiff rate
The 27-year-old has seen his chase rate climb from 27.8% last year to 32.9% this year, but otherwise, it’s a similar story from an underlying stat standpoint – to the point where a hot streak or simply more production seems inevitable. That may already be happening, to a degree. Mullins is batting .277 since the calendar flipped to June and is batting .300 with a .344 on-base percentage, a home run, and a stolen base in his last 33 plate appearances.
Overvalued Players To Trade Away
Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves
Morton has had an uneven season so far, pitching to a 5.67 ERA and a 4.58 FIP in 60.1 innings. He’s struck out 9.85 batters per nine innings, which is right in line with his numbers dating back to the beginning of his time in Houston.
However, he’s also walking 3.88 batters per nine innings, his highest metric in the category since 2018, and is surrendering 1.34 home runs per nine frames. Morton has been adept at limiting the long ball for most of his career, but if the season ended today, his 2022 home runs per nine innings rate would be the highest it has been since 2010 when the 38-year-old had a 7.57 ERA and a 5.29 FIP in 79.2 innings for the Pirates.
So why is Morton in the “Overvalued” portion of this article? Largely because he’s been missing a ton of bats lately. Like 20 in his last 11 innings to be specific. Those 20 strikeouts included a staggering 12 in his last start against those Pirates. What’s more, Morton had a 40% CSW rate during that game and logged 23 whiffs on the 46 pitches Pittsburgh swung at. If someone in your league thinks this is the start of a resurgence, or rather a return to form for the veteran, now is the time to move the veteran. The start against the Pirates was plenty promising, but Morton has given up four earned runs or more in seven of his 12 starts this season. It is also worth noting that his former team does have the second-highest strikeout rate in the league.
Morton certainly isn’t someone to cut just yet, but if you can deal him as part of a deal for a bounce-back candidate with significant upside – like Hernandez or Raisel Iglesias– it may pay significant dividends for you later in the season.
Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Guardians
McKenzie has a 3.09 ERA in 64 innings this season. That’s obviously good. On the surface, it might prompt someone in your league to make a deal for the 24-year-old, who impressed mightily during the 2020 campaign with a 3.24 ERA, a 3.91 FIP, and 55 strikeouts in 33.1 innings. What’s not so good is that McKenzie has a 4.07 xERA and a 4.64 FIP this season. While his walks per nine innings (2.53) and home runs allowed per nine innings (1.55) are much more in line with his 2020 metrics (2.43 and 1.62 respectively), the strikeouts just aren’t.
The right-hander struck out 11.34 batters per nine frames in 2020. This season, it’s down to 7.73 strikeouts per nine innings. That number is also down below the league average for starters in each of the last four campaigns.
K/9 League Average For Starting Pitchers By Season:
- 2019: 8.58
- 2020: 8.78
- 2021: 8.62
- 2022: 8.12
Pair that with decreased whiff rates on both the right-hander's two primary bat-missing options, his slider and curveball, and you have a somewhat unideal situation. What’s more, the 24-year-old is also in the 16th percentile league-wide in barrel rate and the 29th percentile in hard-hit rate. That’s even less ideal considering he’s giving up more contact.
Triston McKenzie Slider and Curveball Whiff Rates By Season
2021
- Slider: 19.1% Usage Rate, 44.2% Whiff Rate
- Curveball: 18.0% Usage Rate, 44.4% Whiff Rate
2022
- Slider: 18.4% Usage Rate, 33.0% Whiff Rate
- Curveball: 20.6% Usage Rate, 38.9% Whiff Rate
McKenzie’s ERA probably isn’t sustainable at this rate and definitely seems like it’ll regress at some point, perhaps soon considering he’s also sporting a .176 BABIP. However, the right-hander has logged at least seven innings in four of his last five starts. Try trading McKenzie for a similarly productive position player like Jeremy Pena or a fellow starting pitcher with quality underlying peripherals.
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