Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 3

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 3, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?" - a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit, or just smoke and mirrors.

With May fast approaching we're starting to get settled into the season, and while many a hot start has faded, there are still plenty of pitchers coming up with big performances that are widely available. This week we're looking at a pair of NL Central southpaws in Eric Lauer and Nick Lodolo, and we'll look at an AL Central righty with the reemergence of Dylan Bundy in Minnesota.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 4/25/22.

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Dylan Bundy, Minnesota Twins – 54% Rostered

2021 Stats: 90.2 IP, 6.06 ERA, 5.51 FIP, 12.6% K-BB%
4/23 vs. CWS: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

After a breakout 2020 season that had Bundy looking like a top-30 starter, the right-hander came crashing back to earth in 2021, putting up a 6.06 ERA and 5.51 FIP in 23 games (19 starts). It was so bad that even the pitching-needy Angels didn’t see a reason to bring him back. There was one team perhaps even more desperate for starting pitchers this offseason, and that was the Minnesota Twins. Bundy is off to a hot start with Minnesota already, having only allowed one earned run through his first three starts. Is the frontline starter version of Bundy back, or is this a ticking time bomb?

A former top prospect in Baltimore’s system, Bundy’s had an erratic career of highs and lows as a big leaguer. When he’s at his best he’s firing in sharp, sweeping sliders that are almost unfair to right-handed hitters. When he’s at his worst, there’s no feel for the slider and he’s forced to rely heavily on a weak fastball and changeup to get him out of jams. Altogether, Bundy works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup, though he’s tended to live-and-die by the slider in the past.

Speaking of the slider, the pitch has been as advertised thus far. Batters are hitting just .133 against the pitch along with a .174 wOBA and 21.2% swinging strike rate. Interestingly, both the velocity and spin rate are down in a big way on the slider compared to previous seasons. He’s averaged just 79.4 MPH with his slider thus far, and has lost about 200 RPM in average spin rate. The pitch looks strikingly different on the eye test as well. Here’s a comparison of his slider from 2020 to one from this most recent start.

2020:

2022:

Gone is that big, sweeping break, and the current slider looks closer to a slurve than a traditional slider.  These changes may be intentional, but given his injury history and the fact that his fastball velocity is also down, I’m thinking this is more physical decline than anything else. He’s still only 29, which isn’t an age where we typically expect a pitcher to decline, but Bundy’s had so many injuries throughout his career it’s possible his arm is giving out sooner than most.

Is the new slider a bad pitch? No, it’s still his best offering and a decent pitch, but it’s not the GIF-able strikeout weapon it was two years ago. The numbers reflect that, as Bundy has just a 7.04 K/9 rate through three starts, and had only five swinging strikes total in this start against Chicago (two with his slider). If Bundy can’t rack up the strikeouts like he once did, he’s a significantly less interesting fantasy option.

A good sign for Bundy in this start was the slider usage, as he threw the pitch 30% of the time. Many of his best starts from 2020 involved 30%+ slider usage, and such frequent slider usage means Bundy is relying on his questionable fastball less often. Bundy’s bad fastball has been the bane of his fantasy manager’s existence over the course of his career. When he was coming up, Bundy could sit mid-90s and touch 98, but injuries have taken their toll, and now he’s averaging a meager 89.3 MPH. That is among the softer fastballs in the league, and most pitchers under 90 MPH are much older, such as Zack Greinke and Adam Wainwright. Bundy’s been pretty lucky with his fastball thus far, having allowed just a .133 AVG and zero extra base hits, but those results hardly seem sustainable. Batters have a .284 AVG and .882 OPS against Bundy’s fastball all time, so it would be hard to believe in Bundy’s fastball performing well long term, especially when both the velocity and spin rate have decreased.

Bundy could follow the old man strategy of pitching and lean more heavily on his secondary pitches to help supplement a weak fastball, but other than his slider, he doesn’t have much to offer in that bag of tricks. His changeup is probably his second-best pitch, but it’s really just a pitch he uses against lefties when he doesn’t trust the slider. He might benefit from mixing in his curveball a bit more, but unless we see 30%+ slider usage and 15%+ curveball usage I don’t think we’ll see much consistency out of Bundy, and even then, consistency has long been a struggle for him.

Verdict:

Dylan Bundy will most likely pitch better in 2022 than he did in 2021. That does not make him a strong fantasy option, however. His slider is still a plus pitch even after all the tumult Bundy’s gone through, but his fastball velocity continues to dip and his changeup remains a below average offspeed offering. Bundy has reentered the zone of streaming, but he’s not someone I’m ready to trust in tough matchups yet. His next start is at Tampa Bay, a club that’s been middle-of-the-pack against right-handed pitching thus far. Use him there if you need him, but he’s not a must-start and not someone I’d spend a vast amount of FAB to acquire.

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds – 25% Rostered

2021 Stats (AA): $$ IP, 1.84 ERA, 1.63 FIP, 28.6% K-BB%
4/24 vs. STL: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K 

While Hunter Greene has received tons of attention as Cincinnati’s hot young pitching prospect, he’s not the only interesting arm in town. Lodolo is Cincinnati’s number two prospect behind Greene, and another highly touted arm that’s been given a chance thanks to the Reds rebuilding situation. His first two starts were a little bumpy, but Lodolo showed up big on Sunday, earning his first big league victory and falling one out shy of his first career quality start against the Cardinals. Exciting pitching prospects are usually hoarded by eager fantasy players, but due to his poor start and a Hunter Greene-sized shadow in Cincy, Lodolo is widely available in fantasy leagues. Is the big lefty ready to contribute, or is this more of a development year for Lodolo?

A top college prospect out of TCU, the Reds took Lodolo seventh overall in 2019, making him the first pitcher off the board that year. Not only was Lodolo a big prospect in the Reds’ system, but MLB pipeline had him ranked as the 41^st prospect coming into 2022. With an imposing 6’6” frame, Lodolo sports a three-pitch arsenal consisting of a sinker, a slider, and a changeup. Using a sinker instead of a four-seamer is a bit unusual for up-and-coming pitchers as the league has trended away from sinkers in favor of four-seamers over the past few years, making Lodolo something of a unique prospect. The fastball isn’t what made Lodolo a top prospect, however, as scouts were more intrigued by two things, Lodolo’s slider and his plus command.

Sometimes called a slider and other times called a curveball, Lodolo’s breaking ball had been an excellent strikeout source for him as a minor leaguer, as he posted strikeout rates north of 30% at each of his minor league stops. Averaging 82.5 MPH on the gun, it comes in a bit slow for a slider relative to his fastball velocity (94.2 MPH), but a bit hard for a traditional curveball as well. The spin rate thus far has been an incredible 2701 RPM, which would be among the highest slider spin rates in MLB. Let’s have a look at the pitch from this most recent start.

Although it’s softer and has high spin, that definitely looks like a slider to me. It’s strong horizontal movement is more indicative of a traditional slider than a loopier, or more straight down curveball. An encouraging sign for Lodolo, as seen in this clip, has been his fearlessness with the slider, throwing it 51 times to right-handed batters through his first three starts. Many pitchers, especially young pitchers, often lack the confidence to throw breaking balls against opposite handed hitters, but Lodolo has been willing to attack righties with the pitch, something young left-handed pitchers must learn to do if they hope to succeed in the majors. The swinging strike rate on Lodolo’s slider have been a bit underwhelming thus far as he had just two whiffs with the pitch in this start and a 16% swinging strike rate overall, but the combination of minor league numbers, raw measurables, and superb control should make this a more effective strikeout weapon in the long run. St. Louis has a 20.2% strikeout rate as a team thus far, the third-lowest in baseball, so Lodolo might find better whiff rates against more free-swinging opponents.

In addition to the slider, Lodolo was known for stellar command of the strike zone. In 69 minor league innings Lodolo has issued just 11 free passes, good for an outstanding 1.43 BB/9. Although he issued five walks in his first two starts, Lodolo refrained from giving up any free passes in this one, and may be harnessing the command we saw from him in the minor leagues. His plus command extends beyond just walks issued though, as Lodolo’s keen ability to locate pitches should allow him to thrive even with a sinker-heavy approach. Lodolo’s ability to place the ball wherever he wants it in the zone has turned his sinker into an exceptional groundball pitch, and in turn making Lodolo an exceptional groundball pitcher. He’s had a groundball rate above 50% at every minor league level, and that number could be reached in the majors as well with his current approach. Fireballers come up through the minors all the time, but Lodolo’s command looks pretty special and fantasy managers should try and get in now before it’s too late.

Verdict:

There's a lot to like about Lodolo, most of which was on display unday against the Cardinals. He's got the potential to be an SP2 or SP3 long term thanks to his above average velocity, wicked slider, and great command. He'll likely have some ups-and-downs as any rookie does, and the full breakout likely won't come until he's had some seasoning, but Lodolo looks like a strong upcoming talent. He's definitely worth the add in 12-team leagues or deeper.

Eric Lauer, Milwaukee Brewers – 25% Rostered

2021 Stats: 118.2 IP, 3.19 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 15.5% K-BB%
4/25 @ PHI: 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 13 K

Sunday night was Eric Lauer’s time to shine, as the 26-year-old southpaw carved up the Phillies lineup for a career-high 13 strikeouts over six scoreless innings en route to a tough no-decision. While this start has the eye-popping strikeout totals, Lauer has been trending upwards since last season. He had a 2.60 ERA in the second half, and now allowed one run total over his last two starts. The big guns like Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta earn a lot of the attention in Milwaukee, but another fine young arm could be brewing in the Cream City.

Lauer came to Milwaukee from San Diego as part of the Trent Grisham trade, and while that swap initially looked like a big win for the Padres, Lauer has emerged as a reliable starting pitcher between the end of last season and the beginning of this one. With a broad, five-pitch mix Lauer isn’t known for any one pitch in particular, but uses his four-seam fastball, slider, cutter, and curveball all greater than 15% of the time. He does mix in the occasional changeup, but that’s more of a show-me pitch and not of big concern.

The most noteworthy change for Lauer this season is his velocity jump, as Lauer is now throwing 94 MPH with his heater, up about 1.5 MPH from last season and up 3 MPH from when he first debuted and was sitting around 91 MPH. Both his spin rate and extension to the plate have increased since he first came up as well, two factors that improve the perceived velocity of the pitch. Lauer’s fastball has gone from an objectively mediocre offering to above average in velocity and slightly above average in spin, and the results have spoken for themselves thus far. Batters are hitting just .158 against the pitch along with a .275 wOBA and .269 xwOBA, and the fastball has been his best strikeout pitch, earning him 11 whiffs in this start and a 13.3% swinging strike rate overall. Lauer’s made a leap with his fastball and should now be a more reliable fantasy pitcher going forward.

While the fastball and strikeout numbers are great, there is a problem here. Lauer’s best strikeout pitch is his fastball, which is not typically a recipe for success in the major leagues. Sure, he throws a lot of secondary pitches between the cutter, slider, changeup, and curveball, but none of these offerings stand out. He tries to make up for the lack of a put away pitch with a kitchen sink “throw everything” approach, but five nickels do not equal one dollar. I’d be more apt to trust a pitcher with one really good breaking ball, than a pitcher who throws all sorts of stuff hoping to thrive on deception. Lauer fits the mold of an unexciting, back-end rotation piece rather than the big strikeout king we saw on Sunday, and I wouldn’t expect too many double digit strikeout games going forward.

Verdict:

Lauer is a fine pitcher to add and use in the right circumstance, but do not blow your entire FAB on him after looking at this pitching line. What you’re likely getting is a low-dominance, decent control back-end starter. He might pop for a huge start every once in a while, but think of him more like a left-handed Chris Flexen than a superstar in waiting.

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