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The Pittsburgh Pirates could trade away their most valuable players in the 2022 offseason. Ben Rosener evaluates the best landing spots and fantasy baseball impact.
The Pittsburgh Pirates’ rebuilding efforts are still ongoing, but it’s easy to see what the team’s next competitive core might look like. Pittsburgh has a host of promising prospects in the lower minors, including 2021 first-overall pick Henry Davis, as well as Liover Peguero, Quinn Priester, Nick Gonzales, and Endry Rodriguez.
That group, along with players currently in or close to the Majors like Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, Roansy Contreras, Miguel Yajure, and Travis Swaggerty, has a shot to be much better than the current incarnation of the Pirates. Still, with the rebuild continuing, Pittsburgh is more likely to trade away veteran players at this point than add them.
A rebuilding situation isn’t the most ideal for fantasy managers, but there are some quality fantasy options on Derek Shelton’s team, notably Bryan Reynolds, Hayes, Cruz, and David Bednar. While Hayes and Cruz likely aren’t going anywhere, Reynolds and Bednar make sense as theoretical trade candidates. And if either is dealt, it’s possible their fantasy ceilings could be raised considerably. With that in mind, these are the best trade fits for both players.
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Bryan Reynolds: Houston Astros
Reynolds had a breakout season as a rookie in 2019, but his 2021 campaign cemented him as a fantasy stalwart. The outfielder hit .302 with a .390 on-base percentage, 24 home runs, and five stolen bases.
He also was one of just 21 players league-wide to log at least 90 runs scored and 90 RBI. Both numbers are particularly relevant considering the team Reynolds played for, Pittsburgh, scored fewer runs than any other team in the sport.
Hitting third in the Pirates’ lineup led to Reynolds collecting 93 runs scored and 90 RBI. It’s entirely reasonable to think, given the sustainability of the outfielder’s production, that he could be even more productive from a fantasy standpoint in a more dynamic lineup.
The 27-year-old logged nearly identical wOBA (.385) and xwOBA (.386) metrics while finishing in the 88th percentile or better in xSLG, xwOBA, and xBA.
He’s here to stay as an impact player.
Now all he needs is the right lineup around him to help his fantasy stats flourish even more so.
Which is where the Houston Astros come in.
Houston, a team that just lost Carlos Correa to free agency, certainly isn’t hurting for star power in their lineup. They still have Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Michael Brantley. But, adding a player of Reynolds’ caliber would put them in a position to once again contend for a World Series title.
The Astros could also use an upgrade in the outfield after trading Myles Straw at last season’s trade deadline. More importantly, for fantasy managers, it’d place Reynolds right in the heart of arguably baseball’s best lineup.
En route to leading the league in runs scored, Houston primarily hit Altuve leadoff, Brantley second, and Alvarez fourth. Bregman saw more plate appearances hitting third than anyone else while Correa and Tucker saw plate appearances at a variety of different spots in the lineup.
While it remains to be seen just how the Astros will stack their lineup in 2022, it isn’t hard to imagine Reynolds as an ideal fit hitting after Altuve and one of Brantley, Tucker, or Alvarez.
Last season, Astros players hitting third in the lineup saw the third-most plate appearances with runners on base among all other teams’ number three hitters.
Translation: RBI opportunities will be there.
Hitting ahead of three of Bregman, Brantley, Tucker, and Alvarez should provide plenty of runs scored opportunities as well. Astros players batting third scored the fifth-most runs (94) in the league among other team’s number three hitters.
Furthermore, the home runs could fly with additional frequency as well.
Reynolds hit a career-high 24 home runs last season, but his expected home run total at Minute Maid Park was 34. For his career, the outfielder’s expected home runs in Houston (59) far outweighs his career total (47).
If the Pirates end up trading their star outfielder, fantasy managers around the league should be rooting for a deal to Houston.
David Bednar: Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox
Bednar, arguably the favorite to serve as the Pirates’ closer after a strong debut season in Pittsburgh, fits best on an improved roster where he can continue to earn saves.
Given that most contenders or competitive teams have a set closer, that limits the field somewhat and opens the door for teams like the Rangers as a hypothetical fit. Texas is clearly angling towards contention sooner rather than later with the additions of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jon Gray. They might not make the playoffs in 2022, but they’ll at least give Bednar a chance for more save opportunities than he might get in Pittsburgh. That’s in part due to a better roster but also because the Rangers seem less likely to trade away established players at the trade deadline, thus ensuring Bednar has a full season’s worth of ninth-inning chances. In Pittsburgh, he might be the closer for the first half but find himself as a setup reliever on a contender come July.
It's a similar, but potentially more fruitful fantasy situation in Boston.
Garrett Whitlock is the team’s best reliever, but the Red Sox may opt to keep him in a multi-inning, high-leverage role.
If that’s the case, they might be in need of a ninth-inning option after Matt Barnes and Adam Ottavino struggled down the stretch.
The veteran duo combined for 35 of Boston’s 49 saves but had trouble allowing both walks and runs down the stretch. Barnes turned in a 6.48 ERA, 5.75 FIP while surrendering nine walks in his last 16.2 innings. Ottavino, meanwhile, also pitched to a 6.48 ERA. He also had a 5.93 FIP and allowed 15 walks in his 25 second-half innings. Ottavino has since signed with the New York Mets.
Both pitchers finished with plenty of strikeouts during that span, with 21 and 28 respectively, but the struggles were certainly not ideal.
Elsewhere, Boston has added Jake Diekman via free agency, but they could still use bullpen reinforcements.
Enter Bednar, who would be an ideal addition for both the Red Sox and fantasy managers.
The reliever pitched to a 2.23 ERA and a 2.69 FIP in 60.2 frames for Pittsburgh last season, registering three saves while missing bats with aplomb. The 27-year-old struck out 77 batters while turning in a 15.6% swinging strike percentage, the 15th-highest among all relievers.
He was elite in most other metrics as well, finishing in the 92nd percentile or better in hard-hit rate, xBA, xSLG, K%, xwOBA, and xERA.
Having such an elite reliever serving as the Red Sox closer would certainly change things where the hierarchy of fantasy closers in 2022 is concerned. Boston’s 49 saves were the fourth-most in the league last season.
Only four relievers topped 35 saves last season, but it wouldn’t be too hard to imagine Bednar topping that number if he was traded to the Red Sox.
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