4 Starting Pitcher Draft Targets With Upside - Fantasy Baseball Value Picks (American League)

Like most things, the key to success is being prepared. Drafting for a fantasy baseball team is no different, and lucky for you, you came to the right place. RotoBaller has already compiled many articles, rankings, and everything you need to prepare for your fantasy baseball drafts.

For this piece, I will discuss starting pitchers, specifically American League pitchers, who fantasy managers should target in their upcoming drafts. When drafting pitchers, it's important to examine their underlying numbers, understand their track record of success, and assess their upside potential.

I will analyze four pitchers you should target who have shown flashes of success and have strong value correlated with their ADP. I'll discuss what makes them a good target, some underlying metrics, and where they rank, and I'll explain why you should add them to your target list on your draft board. Good luck, RotoBallers!

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Bryan Woo, SP, Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo is set to make a lot of noise this season. Woo, who is 25 years old, is part of one of the best rotations in baseball. Woo is currently slated to be the No. 5 pitcher behind Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Bryce Miller. All of these names are well-known in the baseball community.

Woo was called up to MLB during the 2023 season. He logged 87 2/3 innings in 18 appearances during that time, with a 4.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and a 25.1 percent strikeout rate. Not bad for his first time getting called up to The Show. However, in 2024, he took it to another level, lowering his ERA to 2.89 and his WHIP to 0.90 in 121 1/3 innings pitched.

In addition, he lowered his walk rate from 8.4 percent to 2.8 percent (100th percentile in 2024). It's usually a good recipe for success when you don't allow free passes and limit the hard-hit rate (78th percentile) and barrel percentage (91st percentile).

The only downfall is that his strikeout percentage went down to 21.4 percent; however, that doesn't detract from his ability to generate weak contact.

Bryan Woo Tonight:

2.1 IP
1 H
0 ER
1 BB
6 K

10 Whiffs
59% Whiff%
54% CSW%

He topped 96.0 MPH and absolutely dominated.pic.twitter.com/sEu1LAU7Ka

— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) March 7, 2025

According to Baseball Savant, T-Mobile Park is also one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in MLB. So, for a guy who generally induces weak contact and doesn't give out free passes, as Woo does, that is another thing working in his favor.

Currently at NFBC, Woo ranks 140.0 overall, and fantasy managers should not hesitate to take him at this pick or potentially even a round before to secure him on their team. If Woo can generate more missed bats this season, he could easily become a top-20 fantasy pitcher.

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan has steadily worked his way up the ranks over the past few seasons. Ryan, 28 years old, is entering his fifth season with the Twins and will be firmly in the rotation behind their ace, Pablo Lopez. During the 2024 season, Ryan made 23 starts (135 innings pitched) with a 3.60 ERA, 3.44 FIP, and a 3.1 WAR.

What stands out is that his xERA and SIERA were 2.87 and 3.42, respectively. This showcases room for progression heading into the 2025 season. Ryan also has a career 10.05 K/9 and, in 2024, had a 9.8 K/9. According to Baseball Savant, his strikeout percentage ranks in the 80th percentile; combined with his 4.3 percent walk rate (96th percentile), Ryan is not allowing many free passes and generating strikeouts.

An area where Ryan can improve is his breaking run value, which measures a pitcher's ability to prevent baserunners from advancing (mostly from stolen bases).

It would also be nice to see him finish the season without injury. In his three full seasons with the Twins, Ryan has yet to throw more than 161 2/3 innings, so there is a bit of a risk there. According to Twins manager Rocco Baldelli, Ryan is looking good in spring training and is in midseason form.

Joe Ryan posted very solid numbers in 24’, posting a career year:

135.0 IP
147 K
9.80 K/9
1.53 BB/9
3.60 ERA
2.90 xERA
3.44 FIP
3.44 xFIP
0.99 WHIP
3.1 fWAR

His 3.1 fWAR was the highest of his young career pic.twitter.com/sDVHLenqFM

— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) January 5, 2025

Currently, at NFBC, Ryan ranks 105.0 overall, and fantasy managers should look to target him in their upcoming drafts. If Ryan can stay healthy for the whole season, he could easily be a top-20 pitcher.

Spencer Arrighetti, SP, Houston Astros

Houston Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti had a respectable rookie campaign in 2024. Due to some injuries in the Astros rotation, Arrighetti got called up early in the season, started 28 games (145 innings pitched), and finished with a 4.53 ERA, a 4.18 FIP, and a 10.61 K/9.

For a rookie season, that is a stat line that you can build off coming into your second season. He ranked in the 79th percentile in strikeout percentage and 96th percentile in extension. Extension is important because it means he is a few feet closer to home plate when he releases the ball, which shortens the distance the ball travels to home plate, leading to a perceived increase in velocity and less time for a hitter to react.

Spencer Arrighetti after the All-Star Break:

65 IP
3.18 ERA
1.17 WHIP
78 K

Arrighetti was one of only five starting pitchers with a sub 3.20 ERA and 10.8 K/9 after the All-Star Break.

The other four starting pitchers were:

Paul Skenes
Chris Sale
Blake Snell
Carlos Rodon pic.twitter.com/5SBVY1SwpI

— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) February 10, 2025

Entering the 2025 season, Arrighetti is currently slated as the Astros' No. 3 behind Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. According to NFBC, his current ADP is 208.0, and he could provide fantasy managers with a better value pick later in drafts than his teammates, who are going 64.0 and 108.0, respectively.

With Arrighetti's ability to rack up the strikeouts, he is a strong value pick toward the later part of drafts. Look to target him toward the middle to late part of your drafts.

Gavin Williams, SP, Cleveland Guardians

There was a lot of hype last year surrounding Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams heading into the 2024 season, and he certainly disappointed a bit, but I am willing to buy the dip.

Williams, a former 2021 first-round pick by the Guardians, experienced right elbow inflammation early in the season, was placed on the 60-day IL, and missed most of the first half of the 2024 season.

When he returned in early July, he finished the season with 16 starts, 76 innings pitched, a 4.86 ERA, 4.12 FIP, and a 9.36 K/9. The bottom line is that he got rocked. Williams was in the 11th percentile for hard-hit percentage and the fifth percentile for average exit velocity. Batters were squaring him up, and his ERA reflects that.

His four-seamer and changeup got rocked to the tune of a .288 and .417 average, respectively. In addition, he struggled to limit free passes, as he was in the 27th percentile for walk percentage. You can see why it was an underwhelming season for him when you put those two things together.

Williams is a bit of a flamethrower, averaging 96.6 mph on his fastball. Similar to Arrighetti above, Williams ranks in the 96th percentile in extension. Because his release point is closer to the plate, it's perceived to be even faster. If Williams can minimize the loud contact and spot his pitches better, I could see him bouncing back in a big way.

Gavin Williams was unreal today:

2.1 IP 3 H 1 R 1 BB 6 K
15 whiffs 🔥🔥

I’m expecting a breakout year from him in 2025!
pic.twitter.com/6NS66ambAF

— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) March 4, 2025

Williams is slated to be safely in the Guardians rotation this year, likely behind their ace, Tanner Bibee. According to NFBC, his current ADP is 242.0, and he could provide fantasy managers with high upside late in drafts. Fantasy managers should add him to their target lists as they prepare for drafts.

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