Four Players Set to Break Out at Third Base

March 19, 2021

Mike Kurland identifies second basemen who could break out in 2021 for fantasy baseball. These 3B could be undervalued sleepers in fantasy drafts.

I previously identified breakout candidates at second base, so now it's time to move on to the hot corner.

When defining a breakout, I look at it as a player that can take a step forward to a level they never reached before. This doesn't mean it has to be a "sleeper" or someone who hasn't enjoyed any success in the majors yet. It simply means they have yet to reach their ceiling.

ADP data is taken from NFBC drafts since December 1, 2020.

Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 99.09

Alec Bohm hit very well in the short 2020 season. Bohm was a college product and came into the league as a bat-first prospect. In college, he consistently posted batting averages above .300 and hit for double-digit home runs at multiple stops and this same hit tool followed him to the minors and eventually into the MLB this past season.

Yes, a .410 BABIP is unsustainable but an above-average strikeout rate should remain as he consistently posted K-rates around 15% all through the various stops at the minors. He also does have an above-average speed tool with 64th percentile sprint speed.

We saw him steal nine bases in college over a season and have grabbed a couple at every stop in the minors including a combined six total over three stops in 2019. The issue, and the main concern, is the success rate. It has been a small sample but regardless, he hasn't had great success. There is little chance the Phillies will let him run into outs BUT that team may need to produce runs to compete which could lead to the added opportunities.

Beyond the speed, he showed above-average contact skills in 2020 overall which was mostly carried by his Z-Contact% of 87.9% which was 3.7 points above league average. However, the O-Contact% leaves room for improvement coming in 4.6 points below league average.

Something to watch is the high ground ball rate. At 54% that's entering Vlad Jr. territory but the difference is there is above average speed in this profile so ground balls aren't as detrimental to Bohm. It is still something we hope to see improve. The line drive rate of 30.2% was elite and lends itself to a high BABIP and will help in sustaining a good batting average. The power won’t play up to the potential as long as his fly ball rate remains around 15.1% but, again, the floor is high with this profile and with the pedigree and track record, there is a bright future here for Bohm.

Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates

ADP: 134.74

Hayes was called up midseason and absolutely went off. Over his 24 games, he hit five home runs and posted a .376/.442/.682 triple slash with a .457 wOBA. It is safe to say he overperformed a bit. He did flash great hard hit numbers (55% hard hit%) while making solid contact. The contact rate was also elite at 96.1%.

He has shown the hit tool throughout the minors and the ability to limit swing-and-miss. He has only posted a SwStr% over 10% at one stop and that was in Rookie-Ball. He has good plate coverage and a solid two-strike approach as well.

Although the expected stats suggested he will regress from these outcomes, the two-strike approach even among regressing will still likely translate due to his overall hit tool and contact profile. 

As if his solid plate approach wasn't enough, Hayes consistently stole double-digit bases as well in the minors. On a team that should need to manufacture runs, this should continue into 2021. The downside of being on the Pirates is that they are not a very good offense and sell off any parts worth anything around Hayes. That could lead to pitchers avoiding him and not giving as much to hit. 

Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves

ADP: 216.54

Entering 2021 there is reason for optimism for the nearly 24-year-old. Riley made positive strides in his profile in 2020 and he should be able to sustain and possibly grow even more.

With the power being the strength in his game it was encouraging to see him not selling out for power as much in 2020. He hit more line drives (30.7%) but unfortunately he saw a big jump in ground balls. Up to 42.1% from 25.6% in 2019. This came almost exclusively from the fly ball rate. However, with the average launch angle dropping 7 degrees to 13.6%, it makes sense we saw the ground balls increase but sustaining the line drives is a good sign. This could suggest improvement in batting average, which was actually suggested in the xBA being .262 which was 23 points above the actual batting average.

There was a notable increase in his contact rate (by 9% overall). And in doing so, he cut down on the SwStr% by 5.7% as well. The gains in walk rate is in part due to chasing less. The O-Swing% was down 4.2%. It was still relatively high but still a step in the right direction.

Lastly, he also decreased his whiff% and tightened up the swing a bit. Austin Riley is very interesting and the upside is there. Hopefully, we see him carry these changes into 2021. 

Edwin Rios, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 318.40

Rios is quickly becoming a player rising up draft boards. As we near the season and spring training, he will continue to rise given the fact that the Dodgers haven’t signed anyone to play third base. This leaves the spot open for Rios to run with it.

Edwin Rios played just 32 games in 2020 after coming off 28 games at the Major League level the year before. However, he made some noted changes from one small sample to the other. The first big one was dropping the strikeout rate down from 37.5% to just 21.7%. In the past he has shown to do both over a course of a season but as long as he can remain somewhere in the 20's the skills should play. He also posted a .250 batting average but that was with a BABIP of just .216 so we know there should be positive regression there. However, the batting average could be a concern given his below-average contact rates and the swing-and-miss in his game. His SwStr% was 17.7% just this season and has consistently been at 13% or higher at most levels.

The exciting part of the profile is the power potential. Rios flashed power throughout the minors but was most notably present in 2019 in Triple-A and her posted a total of 35 home runs between Triple-A and MLB that season. He followed that up with eight in just 32 games. The power gains he made appeared to have stuck.

Rios increased his average launch angle from just 5.4 degrees in 2019 to 14.5 degrees in 2020 and he continued to barrel the ball up great at 13.6%. The Sweet Spot rate of 40.7% was also good and above league average. The quality of contact can help combat the average contact skills and even the xBA suggested improvement as it was .285 and that was 35 points above the actual production. So between the low BABIP and expected batting average, it shows he can put up decent to good batting averages if he keeps the strikeouts in check. What will also help him continue to produce power is if he continues to keep the ball off the ground.

We saw his ground ball rate drop to just 32.2%. This allowed for him to have great line drive and fly ball rates and given his ability to barrel the ball, it should continue to produce quality outcomes. We are ultimately dealing with two small MLB level samples, but between the growth shown in 2020 and the opportunity he is walking into in 2021, the upside and potential is there. It does not hurt that he will be hitting in one of the best lineups in baseball either and that lineup protection can help cover up some holes as well.

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