Top 100 Saves+Holds Rankings for Fantasy Baseball Relief Pitchers (July Update)

Hello and welcome to a summertime update of our Saves+Holds reliever ranks! Fear not, those who venture out beyond the traditional 5x5 scoring where a reliever's worth boils down to their ability to generate saves. We've got you covered with this fun piece exploring fantasy baseball bullpens beyond the ninth inning.

A closer's role is undoubtedly important, but managers continue to evolve by introducing more fluid bullpen roles that allow them to deploy their best arm earlier if needed, all while shuffling who gets the ninth. Saves+Holds (or Solds, or SV+HLD) leagues help fantasy leagues reward the best arms regardless of the inning, though it still favors closers in a vacuum. Be sure to also check out our constantly updated fantasy baseball closers and saves depth charts.

Reminder: A hold is recorded when a relief pitcher enters with a lead of three runs or less, or with the tying run on deck, at the plate, or on base, and maintains that lead while recording at least one out. Read on and you'll see where I rank each player, what tier they're in, and then an entertaining bullpen breakdown with some June stat spotlights. While I look for pitchers used in high-leverage situations, this is also about how good the arm is and how efficient their K/9 works for many of you. Most injured arms are omitted.

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2024 Saves+Holds Rankings - Mixed Leagues (July Update)

Rankings as of July 1, 2024

Saves+Holds Rankings Analysis

Let’s have some fun with June RP leaderboards since I’ll be doing a bullpen-by-bullpen team breakdown shortly. That’s typically how I lay this analysis out but we’ll look at recent movement this time around instead. Assume the qualifier here for ranks is a pool of 261 RPs with at least five innings thrown in June:

Ryan Walker, Robert Garcia, Dylan Lee, and Luke Little all hold a piece of the top five in terms of Called Strike + Whiffs rate (CSW%), posting 36.8% or greater on the month. Danny Young was above them all, trailing only the top three of Raisel Iglesias, David Robertson, and Ryan Helsley, but the Mets saw fit to option Young again in their infinite bullpen wisdom. Walker and Garcia are in nice spots, with Walker seeing more high leverage. Lee and Little are still seeking consistent late usage.

For “fun,” there is one key name in the bottom five of that CSW list: Robert Suarez at 18.7%. The San Diego stopper still holds an elite 1.09 ERA/0.79 WHIP with a 24.4% strikeout rate on the year, but let’s zoom in on June. That K rate sunk over 10 percentage points from May’s 28.9% mark to 18.2%, yet he still only walked one batter in eight frames. Fangraphs has his hard-hit rate at a paltry 15.4%, down from 35.5% in May, which is how you survive fewer strikes.

Who might have some luck swings coming? Reliever stats are notorious for being rooted in small samples, with even a full season’s worth of data easily able to outrun peripherals that suggest otherwise. Drilling that down to a single month gets even more fraught, but it can still identify buy/sell opportunities. If a pitcher has a BABIP below .100 in a month then it’s reasonable to expect regression from that moving forward, even if one allows for that being realistic in a month of RP work.

Hans Crouse of the Angels is the only one with a .000 BABIP in June, striking out seven with two walks in his five frames of work. He hasn’t recorded a hold yet and has a “failed starting pitcher prospect” aura about him from stints with Texas and Philadelphia. Oh, but that is where some of our best relievers are born from! All I’ll say is Crouse had 42 strikeouts and a 2.70 ERA (2.91 FIP/2.34 xFIP) in 23 ⅓ IP of relief work at Triple-A before the late-June promotion. Oh, and his 1.07 WHIP had a .357 BABIP behind it so he’s not just a luck merchant. Stash it away. Maybe he'll appear in the August update.

hans crouse update- a stellar return to the big leagues after a near 3 year absence. facing arguably the three best hitters on the dodgers (ohtani, Will Smith, freeman), crouse made quick work of the trip, forcing an easy groundout on ohtani and back-to-back ks on the others. pic.twitter.com/2QjqFE0OCC

— aaron chun (hans crouse era- 0.00, 4 games) (@aaronchun6) June 23, 2024

Otherwise, here are the six RPs with a BABIP below .100 in June alongside their April-May BABIP: Tyson Miller (.043, .213), Mason Miller (.053, .314), Bryan Hudson (.080, .200), Colin Poche (.087, .300), Paul Sewald (.091, .125), and Carlos Estevez (.095, .304). These are recognizable names, especially as this writer clamors for Miller to get save opportunities in a maligned Cubbie bullpen. Sewald is simply having a great time on the bump, but feel free to dish him to anyone who thinks he's Mr. Perfect.

Paul Sewald is 11/11 in save opportunities. He has allowed 5 hits all year. #Dbacks pic.twitter.com/dcUtqBiphc

— Aaron Hughes (@AaronrHughes) June 30, 2024

There are a handful of interesting RPs with high June BABIPs as well: Jeremiah Estrada (.483, .148), David Robertson (.467, .250), and Nate Pearson (.423, .304).

Estrada’s usage and velocity haven’t markedly changed, but his four-seamer in-zone rate fell from ~60% to ~40% while his slider essentially did the opposite. And yet his expected batting average on either offering did not jump above .200 – but his third pitch, the splitter, looks like a culprit. Its xBA soared to .356 (actual AVG .462) after holding batters to one hit on 61 thrown in April and May (~.100 xBA). Again, the pitch metrics look healthy so I’m not worried. I expect that peak form to return shortly, even if the big whiffs come with some barreled mistakes.

Robertson is arguably one of June’s best relievers but he couldn’t escape unfortunate batted-ball placement. He led the aforementioned group of 261 RPs with a 48.6% strikeout rate, a 0.75 SIERA, a 0.48 xFIP, and a 75% groundball rate. It’s incredible to witness an age-39 form like this, but maybe a team or two out there don’t realize what they have with the 4.00 ERA/1.11 WHIP over the last month.

Pearson gave up nine runs in 10 ⅔ IP last month thanks in large part to four home runs surrendered. The damage was exacerbated by the batted-ball luck because a 16:3 K:BB sure didn’t hurt. Expectations for the 27-year-old are less than Estrada/Robertson, but the Blue Jays may also flip Chad Green and/or Yimi Garcia at the deadline. Erik Swanson is floundering at Triple-A.

Pearson’s 2.47 SIERA in June ranked 40th with not only the poor BABIP but a bottom 20 28.6% HR/FB rate. I’d rather speculate on K:BB as a building block than BABIP or HR/FB, but there’s no question that Pearson needs to clean up the meatballs.

Let’s take a moment to look at velocity trends, comparing June to the earlier months. I was one of those terrified by Emmanuel Clase’s workload seemingly diminishing his form last season. Cleveland has not eased off in 2024 but what has Clase done? Ramp his cutter up to an average of 100.3 mph, giving him the best monthly figure on that since June 2021. And after his slider sat around 90 mph in April and May, that also climbed to 91.3 mph in June. He's getting better as the season progresses! Rostering any piece of CLE's bullpen seems like an automatic win in this format.

Emmanuel Clase secured the save against Toronto yesterday

He dialed up his velocity to 101 mph and posted one of the best tjStuff+ for an appearance this season pic.twitter.com/9u7ESsM5Ev

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) June 23, 2024

Others who gained over a full tick on their fastball in June: Aroldis Chapman, Raisel Iglesias, Edwin Diaz, and David Bednar. One key reliever of interest lost some life, as Andres Munoz continues to cede some effectiveness amidst this lower-back issue that he’s managing. Seattle’s closer went from a beautiful 38.3% K-BB% in May to 8.6% in June, losing whiffs while the walks rose. Overall, his walk rate with the bases empty is 3.8% versus 18.5% with men on. His second half will look to avoid further inconsistency and potential back flare-ups.

Munoz joins Jhoan Duran, who has shown decreased velocity all season long, in a mini-tier of “incredible potential but sporting a massive red flag.” At least Duran still has a ~1.00 WHIP on the season, but middling strikeout rates in the 20-25% range are not the monthly splits we’ve come to expect. Instead of pumping 103 mph, he’s maxing out at 100. It could be far worse – a weakened Duran is still better than many RPs – but I can’t put him above Griffin Jax, who sports superior whiffs and ratios.

Last season, Jhoan Duran threw 43.3% of his fastballs at least 102 mph. This season, it’s 5.2%.

Last season, Duran threw 80.6% of his fastballs at least 101 mph. This season, it’s 21.6%.

Duran's missing velocity has the #MNTwins looking for answers: https://t.co/Pk2STiTsm4

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) June 25, 2024

Finally, the good news in any Solds format is that traditional worries over role changes due to trades are mitigated. Tanner Scott’s fantasy value will likely plunge in save-focused leagues as contenders have a closer in place, but there’s no way he doesn’t stay in high-leverage spots to at least nab holds. This also goes for injury displacements. Trevor Megill has been lights out but Devin Williams could be back within a month. The saves would dry up but the solds shouldn’t. Keep ‘em coming!

Did you have fun here? We hope so! Keep your eyes peeled for a team-by-team bullpen breakdown coming soon from yours truly. Be sure to holler at me if there's anyone in particular you want to get the spotlight.

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